The defending champions of Europe, Chelsea, will take a 2-0 lead into France on Wednesday for the second leg of their Round of 16 matchup with Lille.
Lille, who are unsuccessfully defending their Ligue 1 crown this season, performed brilliantly in the group stage but were significantly off the pace in the Round of 16 first leg at Stamford Bridge and, since then, are yet to show signs of turning it around domestically.
We break down the second leg and the Champions League betting outlook with our Lille vs. Chelsea picks and predictions.
Lille vs Chelsea match odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare Champions League odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Lille vs Chelsea betting tips
Predictions made on 3/15/2022 at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Lille vs Chelsea game info
• Location: Stade Pierre Mauroy, Lille, France
• Date: Wednesday, March 16, 2022
• Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
• TV: DAZN, Paramount+
Lille vs Chelsea betting preview
Weather
Lille and Chelsea can expect great conditions in France on Wednesday, with temperatures around 65 degrees Fahrenheit forecast on a clear night.
Injuries
Lille: Renato Sanches CM (Doubtful).
Chelsea: Cesar Azpilicueta RB (Questionable), Callum Hudson-Odoi AM (Questionable), Reece James RWB (Questionable), Ben Chilwell LWB (Out).
Lille vs Chelsea predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Side analysis
Chelsea do not resume their European campaign on a high. Not only do they face massive uncertainty in the short term, with severe financial limitations as a result of sanctions placed on current Chelsea owner Roman Abramovich, but also in the long term with Abramovich's tenure as owner in its final days.
On the pitch, too, there are concerns after Chelsea were lucky to take three points from Sunday's meeting with Newcastle. That game saw the home Blues create absolutely nothing outside of a brilliant move that resulted in the goal in their 1-0 win, while they were lucky to not be reduced to 10-men and concede a penalty in different incidents. That such a lethargic performance came against a Newcastle team nearly 30 points behind them in the table and playing a vastly changed 11 is concerning.
Yet, the concerns can be fairly muted with goals drying up for Lille as of late. With the exception of a 4-0 win over Clermont Foot, who are in their first-ever season in Ligue 1 and are less than two decades old, at the start of March, Lille have scored three goals across their last eight games, going scoreless in four of them. Star striker Jonathan David has scored just once (against Clermont Foot) for club since December, after ending 2021 with 16 goals across competitions.
Those goalscoring issues won't be made easier against a Chelsea team with the second-best defensive record in the Premier League and a tremendously stable, consistent back three. They effectively held Lille completely out in first leg, with the defending French champions creating 0.5 expected goals and totaling 16 shot-creating actions.
Chelsea's potency going forward can be doubted at the moment but there should be full confidence in their ability to continue to hold Lille out over another 90 minutes. Keeping Lille from scoring and maintaining their 2-0 lead on aggregate will be the biggest objective and they can do just that.
Prediction: Draw (+250)
Over/Under analysis
As the above section details, for the second leg, we are anticipating a low-scoring game with Chelsea happy to concede possession and limit the number of quality chances Lille create, while not prioritizing attacking themselves. So, we are going to the Under on the 2.5 goal total for this one.
Lille's goalscoring has dried up considerably in 2022 and the quality Chelsea have both in defense and at goalkeeper is so far above anything Lille face in Ligue 1. With an elite midfield and a sturdy defensive line, it's difficult to back Lille to suddenly find their scoring boots against such a defensively stout Chelsea team.
Not for nothing, Lille are quite strong defensively, too. Sven Botman, Jose Fonte, and Zeki Celik give them considerable quality in the center and they do a great job of limiting chances as a result. In 28 games in Ligue 1 this season, they've conceded 30.6 xGA, while their 6.3 xGA in the Champions League group stage finished as the fourth-best mark.
Like in any Champions League second leg, there's the chance everything gets turned upside down in a matter of moments but everything logically points to the Under.
Prediction: Under 2.5 (-132)
Best bet
What could threaten our side and total picks is a second half in which Lille are still chasing and commit further numbers forward, both increasing the likelihood of themselves finding a way through and exposing themselves defensively for a Chelsea goal.
That scenario, however, would only play out after an initial 45 minutes which maintained the status quo in this tie. On balance, Lille do not have the quality nor present form to break down Chelsea's defense, while Chelsea don't have the need to freely attack Lille. We can expect a low-scoring game in France Wednesday, with the first half especially likely to feature a deadlock.
Pick: First-half Under 0.5 (+175)
