We have Champions League quarterfinal second legs today, with Aston Villa and PSG meeting at Villa Park.
The first leg was a hugely exciting game, with Villa taking the lead before being pegged back by PSG. We’re likely to see the same result again, with our Aston Villa vs. PSG predictions backing the Parisians to show their class and win in the Midlands.
Be sure to read my free betting picks for Tuesday, April 15, with kickoff at 3:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+.
Aston Villa vs PSG picks and predictions
My best bet: PSG to win (+116 at BetRivers)
My analysis
Tuesday’s Champions League quarterfinal second legs serve up a fascinating Aston Villa vs. PSG clash, with the Parisians traveling to Villa Park holding the advantage following a 3-1 victory in the first leg.
Beating this PSG team will be very hard, but to win by three clear goals, or two and hope to win a penalty shootout, feels like a near-impossible challenge for Aston Villa. However, they did open the scoring in the first leg through Morgan Rogers and must believe that they can get the better of PSG. While Emery and his team might believe that, I certainly don’t, and being able to get PSG at plus-money to win this game is a great opportunity.
While Villa scored first and almost escaped with a narrow 2-1 defeat, the underlying data shows a game that was nowhere near as close. Luis Enrique’s PSG had 76% of the ball and took 29 shots (10 on target) to Villa’s seven (two on target). Villa are a very good side but PSG was otherworldly and are currently second favorites for this competition, and rightly so.
After years of PSG’s Qatari owners throwing money at the club to sign big-name players, they switched up their strategy this season. Gone are the days of Kylian Mbappe, Lionel Messi, and Neymar, superstars who made this club a travelling circus and not a real, cohesive team. PSG have still spent plenty of money, bringing in Khvicha Kvaratskhelia from Napoli and Desire Doue from Rennes. Those two, along with one of Europe’s most in-form players, Ousmane Dembele and Bradley Barcola, have formed one of the world’s most dangerous attacks. Whichever three play, you’re guaranteed speed, guile and directness, making them hugely dangerous on the counter-attack.
The midfield three of Fabian Ruiz, Vitinha, and Joao Neves is as good as you’re getting in Europe right now. This is a hugely dangerous PSG team, expertly coached by Enrique, who has crafted one of the world’s most enjoyable teams to watch.
The game will likely be close in the initial stages, with PSG not needing to go on the offensive. But with Villa needing to score at least twice, they’ll need to go gung-ho at some point, which will open up spaces for PSG to exploit on the counter. It also won’t be as easy to score against PSG given that they welcome back their central defensive captain Marquinhos into the lineup.
Villa have a manager with huge European experience in Emery, but even his tactical mind was struggling to find answers to the questions asked by PSG in the first leg. PSG were quicker, more technical, and incredibly coherent going forward. That isn’t going to change in a week and the French team will have more than enough about them to win this game.
Aston Villa vs PSG same-game parlay (SGP)
PSG to win
Ousmane Dembele to score
Matty Cash to be booked
Dembele has been in incredible form this season, scoring 21 Ligue 1 goals, seven in this competition and a further four for PSG in other competitions. Alongside Mohamed Salah, he’s firmly in the Ballon d’Or conversation and will be desperate to score, having not managed to find the back of the net in the first leg.
Matty Cash has been averaging a yellow card 0.35 times per 90 minutes played in the Premier League this season and was booked in the first leg of this game last week. He really struggled to deal with Kvaratskhelia, with the Georgian’s jinking runs and dribbling causing Cash to lunge in. He’s up against the same man this week, and the rest of that speedy PSG attack, and has a real chance of getting booked once again.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Aston Villa vs PSG odds
Aston Villa vs PSG live odds
Aston Villa vs PSG opening odds
- Moneyline: Aston Villa +230 | PSG +110
- Draw: +270
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 | Under 2.5
Aston Villa vs PSG side and Over/Under analysis
- PSG have won seven straight games in a row.
- Aston Villa have won eight of their last nine games, the only exception being the first leg of this tie. PSG won the first leg in Paris 3-1.
- Villa won seven of their 11 UCL games, losing three and drawing one.
- Seven of PSG’s 13 UCL games have had Over 2.5 goals. Six of Villa’s 11 UCL games have had Over 2.5 goals.
How to watch Aston Villa vs PSG
| Location | Villa Park, Birmingham, UK |
| Date | Tuesday, 4-15-2025 |
| Time | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Paramount+ |
| Weather | 57F, 15 mph winds, 25% PoP. |
Aston Villa vs PSG key injuries
Aston Villa: Leon Bailey FWR (Questionable).
PSG: None.
Not intended for use in MA.
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