The FA Cup returns this weekend with Manchester City hosting Plymouth Argyle in the fifth round at the Etihad. Argyle have been "giant killers" so far and would love nothing more than to eliminate another big team, having already knocked out Brentford and Liverpool.
Pep Guardiola will be desperate for silverware this season but this won’t be an easy FA Cup tie against a team who have shown their defensive ability of late, as my Manchester City vs. Plymouth predictions explain.
Read on for my free betting picks for Saturday, March 1, with kickoff at 12:45 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Man City vs Plymouth picks and predictions
My best bet:
Plymouth +1.5 1H (-159 at TonyBet)
My analysis
Despite this being a poor season for Guardiola’s Man City team, they still sit fourth in the EPL. While the EFL Cup and Champions League are beyond them, as well as the Premier League (barring a miracle), they are still one of the most dangerous teams to face in England.
Meanwhile, Plymouth Argyle sit in the relegation zone of the Championship following a disastrous decision to appoint Wayne Rooney as manager. Rooney has now left, replaced by Miron Muslic, and the team's fortunes have improved. The FA Cup has been their escape, though, and they’ve already eliminated two Premier League sides in Brentford and Liverpool.
Looking at the league tables and the gulf in class between the two teams, it’s easy to underestimate Argyle, but we really shouldn’t. This team simply aren’t as bad as their league position would suggest and they actually rank 10th in the Championship on the form table over the past six games.
Since arriving, Muslic has worked hard on the defense, turning it from a glaring weakness to their strength and possible salvation. The team now play with a back five, and three of the starters were January additions to the team, all Eastern European internationals and all a huge improvement in quality.
This Argyle team have conceded just four goals in their past six, including that FA Cup fourth-round win over Liverpool, and have only conceded two or more goals twice under Muslic, both earlier in his reign when he was still instilling his pragmatic style.
Realistically, Argyle don’t have the attacking talent to advance to the next round of the FA Cup, and with the injury to Ryan Hardie, they’ve lost their best goalscoring threat. Meaning that their current most dangerous players from an attacking point of view are their central defenders Nikola Katic and Maksym Talovierov, who are major threats at set pieces and have already each scored despite playing just five league games.
While attack is an issue for Argyle, their defense is impressive and Muslic will set them out to keep things very tight early on in this game. City won’t be able to walk over them in the same way they do many teams because of how congested Argyle will make it in the middle of the field.
City might get one first half goal but it’s unlikely to be more, so we’re taking Argyle +1.5 at halftime. If we see Guardiola make many changes, then a second-string team full of young players might struggle even more, given they’d lack the cohesion of a team who are more familiar with each other. That was Arne Slot’s mistake against Argyle in the previous round, and their defense will frustrate City the same as they did Liverpool.
Man City vs Plymouth same-game parlay (SGP)
Man City Under 3.5 goals
Plymouth Under 1.5 goals
Man City Over 7.5 corners
Get involved with our short-priced Manchester City vs. Plymouth SGP for Saturday. Given the variables at play in this game, and the disappointing odds for City players, it’s one which makes the most sense from a value perspective.
Our best bet isn’t available as an option, but we’re sticking with the theme of Plymouth keeping defensively sound and frustrating City and taking Under 3.5 goals for Guardiola’s team. We’re going to balance that with Under 1.5 for Argyle, who are one of the Championship’s lower scoring teams and come into this with star striker Ryan Hardie injured as well as Muhamed Tijani, meaning two potential goal threats are missing.
The final leg is for City to have Over 7.5 corners. Argyle have given up an average of 7.41 per game on the road this season, the most of any team in the Championship. Given the quality discrepancy between the teams, we should see City cover this with ease.
City have averaged 8.15 against Premier League opposition at home.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Man City vs Plymouth odds
Man City vs Plymouth live odds
| Man City | Plymouth | |
|---|---|---|
| -1112 | Moneyline | +2800 |
| +1100 | Draw | +1100 |
| Over 2.5 (-358) | Total | Under 2.5 (+290) |
Odds courtesy of TonyBet.
Man City vs Plymouth opening odds
- Moneyline: Man City -1112 | Plymouth +2800
- Draw: +1100
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 | Under 2.5
Man City vs Plymouth side and Over/Under analysis
- Man City have lost five of their last 10 in all competitions.
- Argyle have one defeat, three wins, and three draws in their past seven games in all competitions. Argyle beat Premier League teams Brentford and Liverpool to reach the fifth round of the FA Cup.
- Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76.9% of Man City’s Premier League games at the Eithad this season.
- Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52.9% of Argyle’s Championship games this season, but since Miron Muslic became manager, it’s landed in only four of nine.
How to watch Man City vs Plymouth
| Location | Etihad Stadium, Manchester, UK |
| Date | Saturday, 3-1-2025 |
| Time | 12:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
| Weather | 47F, 5 mph winds, 20% PoP. |
Man City vs Plymouth key injuries
Man City: Rodri CDM (Out), Manuel Akanji CB (Out), John Stones CB (Out), Oscar Bobbs FWR (Questionable).
Plymouth: Ryan Hardie STR (Out), Muhamed Tijani STR (Out), Joe Edwards RB (Questionable).
Not intended for use in MA.
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