Manchester City vs Arsenal Picks and Predictions: Rivalries Renewed in Community Shield

The Community Shield is up for grabs this weekend when City and Arsenal collide at Wembley Stadium. As our betting picks further outline, one team has a clear historical advantage heading into Sunday's friendly.

Sam Farley - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Sam Farley • Betting Analyst
Aug 4, 2023 • 12:52 ET • 4 min read
Erling Haaland Man City EPL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

It’s the traditional season curtain raiser on Sunday with the Community Shield between Arsenal and Manchester City. These two teams fought a hotly contested Premier League title race last year and we should expect fireworks come kickoff.

Mikel Arteta and Pep Guardiola will both start their best teams as they look to kickstart the season with silverware. Don’t miss our Arsenal vs. Manchester City picks and predictions.

Manchester City vs Arsenal best odds

Brighton & Hove Albion Manchester City Manchester United Arsenal
-138 Moneyline +333
+300 Draw +300
Over 2.5 (-150) Total Under 2.5 (+120)

Odds courtesy of bet365 on August 4, 2023.

Manchester City vs Arsenal picks and predictions

While the game is technically a friendly, we know that it’s usually far from non-competitive. Man City haven't won this game since a 2-0 win over Chelsea in 2018, which feels like an anomaly given that Pep Guardiola has historically played his best lineup.

With last year’s final being played at the King Power Stadium because of the final of the Women’s Euros, we are now back on that famous turf at Wembley this year. That’s good for Man City, who have a great record at Wembley and won the FA Cup there back in May. 

Given that they won that FA Cup as well as the Premier League and Champions League, it may not surprise you that I’m backing them to win this game at odds of -138.

Both sides have played each other twice since February, with Arsenal losing by a combined score of 7-2. It’s become clear to see that Pep has the number of his former protegee Mikel Arteta. The two have met 10 times since Arteta left City to become the Arsenal manager, and The Gunners have just one win to account for during that stretch. 

When you look at the players on the pitch, even our eyes tell us that Man City are a level above the North London club. The bulk of this City team have played together for a number of years now, and the starting lineup is almost certain to be consisting of players who have been on the roster for at least a calendar season.

City know their manager’s methods well and should be able to win this season's curtain raiser at Wembley.

My best bet: Man City to win (-138 at bet365)

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Manchester City vs Arsenal Same Game Parlay

Man City to win

Julian Alvarez to score

Under three cards

First up, we’ll be going with our best bet for this game, and we'll follow it by backing Julian Alvarez to score. We’ve seen Riyad Mahrez leave the club this season, and as of yet, there has been no replacement. That means we’re going to see plenty of chances for Alvarez to place alongside Haaland — a position he performed well in last year when called upon.

There’s also the chance of him playing as the sole frontman when Haaland is benched too. We saw how lethal Alvarez could be at the World Cup and I’m expecting him to have a huge breakout season.

The final leg in our SGP is for Under three cards to cash. Despite this being a hotly contested game between two rivals, we often see these games being officiated in a manner that tries to not book players. In the last five years, we’ve seen just seven combined cards during this rivalry, with one game consisting of three bookings.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Manchester City vs Arsenal side & Over/Under analysis

I’ll be taking Man City on the moneyline, and I think you’re getting a good price at -138 given the historical dominance that Guardiola has had over Arteta.

As for the total, given that five of the past six games have had two or fewer goals, I’d probably lean towards the Under at +120.

Manchester City vs Arsenal game info

Location: Wembley Stadium, London, England
Date: Sunday, August 6, 2023
Time: 11:00 a.m. ET
TV: TBD

Manchester City vs Arsenal key injuries

Manchester City: Mohamed Elneny CM (Out), Reiss Nelson FWR (Out), Albert Sambi Lokonga CM (Out), Oleksandr Zinchenko FB (Questionable).

Arsenal: Kevin De Bruyne CAM (Out), Nathan Ake DEF (Questionable).

Manchester City vs Arsenal weather

A rainy start to Sunday should be subdued by the time this match kicks off, with temperatures expected to be in the mid-60s.

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Betting Analyst

Sam is based in the United Kingdom, where he grew up living and breathing soccer, before discovering - and playing - a different kind of football at the University of Bristol. He’s worked in the media covering soccer and the NFL for the better part of a decade, and has been a regular on the Matchbook NFL Podcast. His work has also appeared in a wide range of publications including The Telegraph, The Independent, VICE, and MSN.

The search for great betting value is a daily one, and Sam always hunts out big prices with a particular focus on player props. Sam’s best advice for bettors is to track their bets on a spreadsheet, that way you can keep an eye on your P&L but also the types of bets and sports that you are most successful in. He also recommends using a variety of different sportsbooks, with bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power amongst his favorites.

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