Mexico vs USA Predictions and Picks: Tentative Play Yields Low-Scoring Results

The United States hope to remain the only nation to lift the CONCACAF Nations League trophy when they face Mexico in tonight's final. Our international soccer betting odds show the United States as favorites to win in regulation.  

It took a last-second miracle for the United States to avoid a humiliating defeat to Jamaica, as an own goal on the final action of regulation forced extra time. Haji Wright’s brace in the extra period saw them win 3-1 and advance to the final, but real questions are once again being asked of Gregg Berhalter and whether he’s the man to lead this team.

Mexico are desperate to end a six-match winless run against the United States in all competitions. Jaime Lozano will be pleased with their 3-0 win over Panama in Thursday’s other semi-final but knows improvement is needed to beat the Americans on their soil.

Our United States vs Mexico picks and predictions for Sunday, March 24 explain why betting on a tightly-contested affair is your best course of action.

Mexico vs USA best odds

Mexico		USA
+200	Moneyline	+129
+200	Draw	+200
Over 2.5 (+123)	Total	Under 2.5 (-186)

Odds courtesy of TonyBet on March 24, 2024.

Mexico vs USA picks and predictions

Simply put, the United States were extremely fortunate to reach today’s final. Jamaica were unlucky to have not scored a second goal on the night as they had a one-on-one with goalkeeper Matt Turner that wasn’t converted and were utterly heartbroken to concede an own goal after 95 minutes.

Their goal in the opening minute came from a pair of defensive lapses from the Americans, as they gave up a back-post header on what was essentially a drawn-up play from a throw-in. It allowed Jamaica to keep nearly their entire team behind the ball, and offset the loss of their top four forwards heading into the match.

One of the biggest problems for the Americans was an inability to break down the Jamaican bunker. It wasn’t until the introduction of Gio Reyna that they found the creativity to do so, and he played a key role in setting Haji Wright up for the winning goal. 

Reyna is on a minutes restriction, as is midfielder Tyler Adams. Without them, the Americans don’t have their top lineup. They lack the creativity in the final third to pick defenses apart without Reyna, and Adams' absence forced Weston McKennie to play a deeper position to get on the ball. 

Mexico aren’t going to bunker, but they will look to hit the Americans with pace on the counterattack. Jamaica lacked the weapons to finish those opportunities, and Berhalter knows his team got away with mistakes in part because of that. 

Joe Scally is likely to make way for the suspended Serginho Dest at right back after he lost his man for the opening goal and was taken off at halftime. This will help strengthen the back line, but it’s still a situation where Berhalter knows his team must be more pragmatic and limit Mexico’s ability to bomb forward. 

Berhalter also knows he can’t lose this match, considering the miracle goal against Jamaica was the only thing standing between him and three consecutive defeats as manager. He also knows the crowd at AT&T Stadium will be heavily in favor of El Tri, adding extra incentive not to fall behind again.

A high-scoring game is unlikely, and the betting market agrees. The price for Under 2.5 goals is highly juiced, and the most recent 3-0 win by the Americans over El Tri ended a four-match stretch of low-scoring meetings. The two meetings before that win in the Nations League playoff last summer both ended in draws. 

The Mexicans lack the attacking talent they’ve had in the past. Combine that with the Yanks likely being more cautious without their best playmakers pulling the strings, and this match feels like one that goes to extra time and perhaps even penalties. Neither team feels like it has a clear edge, and I’ve got a draw projected at about 38% probability.

TonyBet has the draw priced at +200, giving us an edge I’ll happily take advantage of. Look for this to level after 90 minutes, with the Americans winning either in extra time or penalties.

My best bet: Draw (+200 at TonyBet)

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Mexico vs USA same-game parlay

Draw

USA to lift the trophy

Under 3

+550 at bet365

The United States have vastly more depth than El Tri, as they showed on Thursday night with the introduction of Reyna, Adams, and Wright. Adams won’t start, as his minutes are limited, but he’ll likely come in late again to shore up the midfield and allow McKennie and others to push forward. The Americans will find a way to get the job done and lift the trophy after extra time or spot kicks.

That said, I anticipate either a 0-0 or 1-1 scoreline after 90 minutes. The match total doesn’t take extra time into account, so we’ll back the Under here in what is likely to be a cagey affair. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Mexico vs USA side and Over/Under analysis

The Yanks haven’t lost to El Tri since 2019, and the 3-way moneyline reflects the public’s belief that the streak will continue. But it also reflects thin confidence in them winning, as +140 is the best price available to back the home side.

Want to bet on Mexico getting a win? Then you’ll get similar odds to the draw. Most places have a stalemate priced between +200 and +215, while El Tri can be had anywhere from +195 to +210 odds. 

Mexico’s win over Panama ended a stretch of four matches without a win in regulation, and they have just two over their past eight fixtures dating back to last September. Meanwhile, the Americans haven’t won within 90 minutes in their last three matches, losing the two fixtures before narrowly avoiding defeat against Jamaica. 

The Under 2.5 can’t be had for a price better than -160, and the public has also bet heavily on at least one team not scoring. So there’s value for backing a 1-1 draw or a higher-scoring shootout. 

Unfortunately, there’s not much to indicate we will see that. The way these teams set up and tend to cancel each other out in the midfield points to few goals being scored. Plus, neither team likes to lose to the other and tends to take fewer chances, a big reason why the last five meetings between these nations have seen eight total goals. 

Mexico vs USA game info

Mexico vs USA key injuries

Mexico: Julian Araujo D (Questionable).
USA: Tyler Adams M (Questionable), Gio Reyna M (Questionable).

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