The reigning Italian champions take on the reigning Spanish champions as Napoli host Barcelona in the first leg of their Round of 16 Champions League tie.
Both teams entered the year with high hopes of defending their title, but it's been anything but smooth sailing in their respective leagues.
Champions League odds for Wednesday's fixture leave very little to choose between them, but given the inconsistency of both clubs, the total is ripe for the picking.
Join me as I break down the soccer odds and offer my best free soccer picks for Napoli vs. Barcelona on Wednesday, February 21.
Napoli vs Barcelona best odds
Napoli vs Barcelona picks and predictions
Familiarity is the name of the game in this Round of 16 tie as Napoli and Barcelona face off for the third time in five seasons in the UCL knockout stage. Barcelona has prevailed in the previous two but comparing those two sides to this year's club would be foolish.
Barcelona finds themselves eight points off the pace in the La Liga standings with most of the blame directed at manager Xavi. Could he be out the door if the Catalan giants falter here? It's possible.
As for Napoli, they find themselves in a similar situation with manager, Walter Mazzuri who was just shown the door ahead of this mid-week showdown. Not for a lack of trying, but the goals have dried up for the Azzurri as they've notched just three goals over their last five fixtures in all competitions.
The same can't be said for Barcelona who have had their issues keeping clean sheets this season, giving up five goals over their last three fixtures, with just one clean sheet over their nine matches.
So what's the best angle of attack in this contest?
Given both team's inconsistent play and the fact that both are experiencing some managerial turmoil right now, I'd expect both skippers to line their teams up with a defensive mindset to ensure a meaningful second leg back in Spain. With plus money on the Under 2.5 goals, the value is there for a 1-0 or 1-1 result.
My best bet: Under 2.5 (+110 at TonyBet)
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Napoli vs Barcelona same-game parlay
Under 3
Alex Meret Over 2.5 saves
Robert Lewandowski Over 0.5 shots on target
In addition to our best bet of the Under (bet365 only does whole numbers for SGP), we're adding the Napoli goalkeeper to go Over 2.5 saves.
Despite our belief that this game will be a low-scoring fixture, I believe this game will not be without some chances. Barcelona has some incredible talent up front and will be able to boss play for periods at a time and generate some attempts on target.
Finally, who else will lead the charge other than Robert Lewandowski? The Polish striker netted twice in his last game and is never shy to pull the trigger from in and around the box.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Napoli vs Barcelona side and Over/Under analysis
There's very little to choose between the two sides as the odds slightly favor the visitors at +154 with the draw sitting at +250. Napoli enters this home game at +175 on the moneyline and when lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off, I expected this number to rise as Barcelona is typically a publicly backed team.
If you like the hosts, I suggest waiting until closer to kick-off to grab a bit more value.
As for the total, the juice is on the Over 2.5 at -130 and will likely increase once the game gets closer. I believe there's plenty of value on the Under 2.5 at +110, but wouldn't think twice about a little safety at Under 3 (-150).
Not intended for use in MA.
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Napoli vs Barcelona game info
| Location: | Diego Armando Maradona Stadium, Naples, Italy |
| Date: | Wednesday, February 21, 2024 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
| Weather: | Cool and dry conditions. |
Napoli vs Barcelona key injuries
Napoli: Zielinksi (Inactive).
Barcelona: Joao Felix (Questionable), Roberto (Questionable), Torres (Questionable), Alonso (Out), Balde (Out), Gavi (Out).
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