With the race for the Premier League top four looking tighter than ever this season, Newcastle and Chelsea both have ground to make up – and that should add some spice to the EPL odds as they square off at St. James’ Park on Saturday.
Newcastle limped into the international break facing a lengthy injury list and reeling from 2-0 losses to Borussia Dortmund and Bournemouth, but they’ve won five of their six home games in the league this season.
It’s been a rocky start for Mauricio Pochettino in the Chelsea hot seat, with just four victories from 12 Premier League fixtures, but the Blues took the game to Manchester City last time out in a thrilling 4-4 draw.
Read on for our free Newcastle vs Chelsea EPL predictions ahead of this November 25 showdown.
Newcastle vs Chelsea best odds
EPL predictions for Newcastle vs Chelsea
Few teams needed the November international break more than this banged-up Newcastle squad. They’re still dealing with key absences but should at least get some minutes from Fabian Schar, Miguel Almiron, and Alexander Isak this weekend.
The Magpies’ depth will be tested against a Chelsea team that seemed to turn a corner before the break, scoring four goals in back-to-back games and taking four points from clashes with Tottenham and City.
The first game after an international break is always hard to call, given the fatigue, travel, and potential line-up rotation, but I like the odds for a draw on Saturday. Newcastle’s impressive home form is offset by their rough injury luck, and I see Chelsea leaving St. James’ Park with a share of the points.
The Enzo Fernandez-Moises Caicedo pairing in midfield should help to withstand a fast start from the hosts, and the Blues showed a lot of character after falling behind twice against City.
Their front three of Raheem Sterling, Nicolas Jackson, and Cole Palmer has the quality to break down an injury-hit Newcastle defense that will really miss Sven Botman here.
These teams served up a 1-1 scoreline in their last meeting back in late May, and it would be no surprise to see a similar script on Saturday.
My best bet: Draw (+255 at TonyBet)
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Newcastle vs Chelsea same-game parlay
Draw
Nicolas Jackson anytime goal
I’ve picked a draw above, but I’d be somewhat surprised if it cashes in for a 0-0 scoreline since both teams have attacking weapons, especially if Isak is available for Newcastle.
Injuries and departures have thrown Nicolas Jackson into the central striker role this season and he’s given Chelsea a huge boost. With four goals in his last two games, Jackson is a man in form and there could be a little added motivation with fellow striker Christopher Nkunku on his way back after an injury layoff.
I see Jackson being a real handful here for Fabian Schar and Jamaal Lascelles, and I’m adding the odds for him to find the net in this SGP.
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Newcastle vs Chelsea side and Over/Under analysis
This feels like a real coin-flip game between two well-matched teams looking to climb back toward the top four – and the odds reflect that. Chelsea have rebounded resiliently after blowing a 2-0 lead against Arsenal and losing to Brentford at the end of October. They’ve collected two wins and a draw so far this month.
Newcastle’s league home form has been predictably strong – a 15-point tally only bettered by Aston Villa, Liverpool, and Arsenal – but Chelsea have dug in on the road, picking up 10 points from five away games in the Premier League.
The hosts will be relying on their squad depth on Saturday, with Callum Wilson, Sven Botman, Dan Burn, and Harvey Barnes all likely to be sidelined, as well as Sandro Tonali’s ongoing ban. That’s the biggest reason to stay away from the Newcastle moneyline here – and the Magpies also have a huge Champions League game in midweek against PSG.
You have to go back to October 2 for the Blues’ last clean sheet in the Premier League, so there’s a compelling case to be made for the Over on 2.5 total goals. There were some worrying lapses in the goal-fest against City, and Newcastle have the pace in attack to cash in.
But the past four meetings, including a summer friendly, have hit that Under. If the hosts can only call on Isak and Almiron for limited minutes off the bench, Saturday’s contest could shift into more of a low-scoring battle, and Newcastle have only scored once in their last 270 minutes of action.
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Newcastle vs Chelsea game info
| Location: | St. James' Park, Newcastle, England |
| Date: | Saturday, November 25, 2023 |
| Time: | 10:00 a.m. ET |
| TV: | Peacock |
| Weather: | Sunny, no rain. |
Newcastle vs Chelsea key injuries
Newcastle: Callum Wilson (out), Sean Longstaff (out), Dan Burn (out), Sandro Tonali (out).
Chelsea: None.
Newcastle vs Chelsea recent league form
| Teams | Recent Premier League Form |
|---|---|
 Newcastle |
L-W-D-W-D |
 Chelsea |
D-W-L-D-W |
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