Manchester City hopes to put an end to a horrific skid on Sunday as they host Manchester United in the 195th Manchester Derby at the Etihad Stadium.
Pep Guardiola’s side has won just once in their last 10 matches in all competitions and sit eight points behind Liverpool in the Premier League table.
Ruben Amorim’s Red Devils have lost two straight in the league, and defeat on Sunday would see him lose three straight top-flight matches for the first time in his career.
My Manchester City vs. Manchester United predictions and EPL picks are expecting plenty of set pieces for the home team and explain how that will help you find profit.
EPL predictions for Man City vs Man United
My best bet:
Manchester City Over 7.5 corners (+100 at TonyBet)
My analysis
Ruben Amorim’s first two Premier League matches in charge of Manchester United came against bottom-half opponents, but the competition hasn’t been kind to him since.
A trip to Arsenal was followed by a visit from Nottingham Forest, with both sides residing in the Top 5 of the table entering the weekend.
Now he faces a Manchester City side that is reeling but still dangerous. The hosts have taken just four points from a possible 18 since the start of November, as injuries have taken a toll on the squad.
The loss of Rodri hurt the balance of the squad, but injuries to John Stones, Manuel Akanji, and Nathan Ake have created a real crisis at the back as they’ve coincided with a horrific loss of form by Kyle Walker.
But while the results haven’t been there for the Citizens, the corners have been. Not only does Manchester City lead the Premier League with 131 corners taken through the first 15 matches, but they’ve attempted at least eight in all seven home matches this season.
They’re also averaging more at the Etihad, with more than 1.5 corners per match at home vs. away.
While Amorim’s side hasn’t conceded four corners in three of their four Premier League outings under his charge, the one outlier was against Arsenal. That match at the Emirates came against a side that plays a similar offensive style, and the Gunners racked up a whopping 13 set pieces from the corner flag.
Those corners led to both of Arsenal’s goals—a common theme for Manchester United, who have conceded a league-high 39% of their goals from corners.
And while this is the first Manchester Derby of the campaign, it isn’t the first time Amorim will go against Guardiola. Prior to his leading Sporting, he led the Portuguese club to a 4-1 victory over Manchester City in the Champions League.
Sporting sat back and looked to hit City on the counter, but in doing so, they conceded 11 corners at home.
I’m expecting Manchester United to try to play the same way and absorb pressure as they did against the Gunners. City will keep possession and rack up corners as they’ve been all season. Given the struggles the Red Devils have had defending them this year, I wouldn’t be surprised if City will be looking to earn as many of them as possible.
Man City vs Man United Kevin de Bruyne Player Prop
Under 2.5 shots (-107 at TonyBet)
In his three starts since returning from injury, Kevin De Bruyne has taken eight shots—but five of them came against Nottingham Forest. He had just one last weekend against Crystal Palace, followed by a pair against Juventus in the Champions League at midweek.
One thing the Red Devils have done well this season is limit shots. While Arsenal dominated the tilt of the pitch in their match, Manchester United still only conceded 14 shots with only three players having multiple efforts—and none more than two.
In fact, Manchester United has allowed the fourth-fewest shots against this campaign. Opponents are averaging just 11 attempts per match, which is also the shots conceded in Amorim’s four league matches in charge.
I expect KDB to start, given City’s injury issues, but he’s also played 248 minutes over an eight-day stretch and may not go a full 90 here. Combine all those factors, and you’ve got a solid value play here.
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Man City vs Man United odds
Man City vs Man United live odds
Man City vs Man United opening odds
- Moneyline: Man City (-165) | Man United (+380)
- Draw: (+360)
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 (-225) | Under 2.5 (+175)
Man City vs Man United side and Over/Under analysis
- Manchester City is the overwhelming favorite, priced at -162 on the 3-way line. A Manchester United win is priced at +390, with the draw sitting at +359.
- There is value in the double chance for Man United, given how badly depleted the Man City defense is. That said, the Citizens have won the last three league meetings at the Etihad.
- The Over will require lots of juice, with Over 3 getting -145. You have to go up to Over 3.5 to see plus-odds at +112.
- Manchester City has conceded 2+ goals in nine of their last 10 matches in all competitions, while there have been 3+ goals in four of Man United’s last five matches in all competitions.
Man City vs Man United game info
| Location: | Etihad Stadium, Manchester, England |
| Date: | Sunday, 12-15-2024 |
| Time: | 11:30 a.m. ET |
| TV: | USA |
| Weather: | 40F, 11 mph winds, 5% PoP. |
 recent EPL form |
D-W-L-L-L |
 recent EPL form |
L-L-W-D-W |
Man City vs Man United key injuries
Man City: Text.
Man United: Text.
Not intended for use in MA.
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