Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea Picks and Predictions: Defenses Stand Tall at the City Ground

Nottingham Forest will hope the return of multiple key players can see their fortunes change, as they will welcome Chelsea to the City Ground on Sunday. 

The Blues ended a three-match unbeaten run with a five-match winless stretch with a win over Bournemouth, but the victory came at a cost. Reece James hobbled off less than an hour into his return and his absence could be quite a blow to their fading hopes of challenging for a Champions League place. 

Can Chelsea avoid dropping crucial points and avoid a fifth away defeat in nine Premier League outings, or will the hosts open the new year with a big win? We dive into that and more in our Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea picks and predictions for Sunday, January 1. 

Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea best odds

Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea picks and predictions

Anybody who has watched the Blues this season knows this team is a vastly different one with Reece James in it. Without his vision and playmaking ability, Chelsea can at times find themselves searching for ways to pick apart teams who park the bus.

James has started just seven Premier League matches this season for Chelsea. While he’s been on the pitch in that time, they’ve scored 10 goals, two of which he had a direct hand in. In the other eight matches, they’ve scored just nine. While that may not seem like much of a gap, their 2-0 win over Bournemouth is a prime example of how they play with him versus without. 

In his 53 minutes on the pitch, the Blues looked dangerous. But once he came off, things seemed to stagnate as Chelsea were unable to replicate the free-flowing moves they had before the break. 

So now Chelsea turn to Forest, a side coming off a 3-0 defeat at Manchester United. While the Red Devils were clearly the better side, the visitors were missing multiple key players. Perhaps no absence was bigger than that of goalkeeper Dean Henderson, who was unable to feature against his parent club.

Neco Williams is expected to return to the starting lineup against Chelsea, after coming on as a late substitute against United. However, Jesse Lingard will miss with a thigh injury, seriously dampening their hopes of an upset. 

Predicting a winner isn’t your best route to a winning wager in this contest. As poor as Bournemouth have been, Chelsea put just five shots on goal in their matchup and hadn’t scored a single goal in their previous three matches before the World Cup. Three of Chelsea’s last four away matches have seen two or fewer goals scored, and only two of their eight away fixtures have seen them score multiple goals. 

In 16 matches, Forest have scored just 11 times. While all but one of those have been scored in front of home supporters, six of them came against Brentford, Fulham, and Bournemouth — not the most imposing defenses around. As for the Blues, they’ve found the back of the net only 19 times in 15 matches and are averaging fewer than one per match on the road. 

Henderson has done a solid job this season of keeping Forest in matches, and Chelsea haven’t been the best of finishers this season. I fully expect Forest to frustrate them and hold them at bay enough to keep this a low-scoring tilt. 

Until Chelsea show me otherwise, I’m not picking them to play in a goal fest, and I’ll gladly take the Under 2.5 goals when it’s priced this favorably. 

My best bet: Under 2.5 (-110 at bet365)

Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea side analysis

Nottingham Forest might have a shot to win this match if they were fully fit but they’re far from it. In addition to Lingard’s injury, they are still without the services of midfielder Cheikhou Kouyate and defender Moussa Niakhate for another month or so. 

Midfielder Morgan Gibbs-White and defender Chris Richards are also out for this match, leaving them without key players in their spine.

Chelsea will be without more than just James. Fellow defender Ben Chilwell is still out for a few weeks, as is Wesley Fofana. Promising forward Armando Broja is out the rest of the season with a knee injury he suffered a few weeks ago, and midfielder N’Golo Kante will not return until February.

Chelsea are still much better equipped with their depth to navigate the injury concerns at hand. They may rotate if they get a lead, as they have Manchester City visiting on Thursday and will want to be at full strength.

While Chelsea are strong favorites, I wouldn’t fully shy away from the moneyline. I’m not sure I’d bet it straight up, but it offers solid value for the price if paired with a player prop or even with the Under. 

Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea Over/Under analysis

Forest are led in attack by Taiwo Awoniyi, who failed to register a single shot against Man United despite playing more than an hour. He’s bagged just three goals in 14 matches this season, including the stunner against Liverpool. But he’s an unreliable source of goals, and he will be dealing with a terrific veteran defender in Thiago Silva. 

Chelsea have also done a terrific job holding teams below what they should have in the goal department. They rank second in the Premier League in post-shot expected goals minus goals allowed, with nearly five fewer goals conceded than expected based on shot quality. 

Forest are also dead last with fewer than three shots on goal per match, with Chelsea averaging just under four per contest. 

Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea game info

Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea key injuries

Nottingham Forest: Cheikhou Kouyate M (Out), Jesse Lingard M (Out), Chris Richards D (Out).
Chelsea: Reece James D (Out), N’Golo Kante M (Out), Ben Chilwell D (Out).

Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea recent form

Teams	Last five matches
Nottingham Forest	D-L-D-W-L
Chelsea	W-W-D-D-L

Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea weather

It will be a chilly but dry afternoon in North Bridgford on Sunday. Temperatures will be in the low 40s, but no rain is expected. Winds will be minimal, with some gusts possibly entering the teens.

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