Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Picks and Predictions: Vini Continues to Rise Above

Two of the biggest rivals in European football will renew acquaintances on Saturday, as Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid meet once again in the Madrid Derby. While it’s been fairly one-sided of late, the rivalry between these two teams continues to be fierce and sometimes downright nasty.

Real Madrid have won three straight La Liga matches at the Santiago Bernabeu against Atletico, but Diego Simeone has been known to cause problems for Carlo Ancelotti in the past. With Real Madrid losing two key players in their 5-2 win over Liverpool, the Italian manager will have some selection issues to manage.

Can Real get their fifth straight win at home in all competitions against their rivals, or will Atletico pick up a key three points in their fight to stay in the top four? It’s all to play for, and we break it down in our Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid betting picks for Saturday, February 25.

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid odds

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid picks and predictions

Real Madrid is a side that can befuddle you at times, especially when betting on them. One minute they can look like they’re out of it, lost on the pitch, and struggling to score. And then the next, they can dazzle you with brilliant play from world-class talents as they bag highlight-reel goals.

Both sides of Los Blancos were on full display in their win over Liverpool in Tuesday’s Champions League clash. They fell behind 2-0 at Anfield inside of 15 minutes, in part due to a howler from keeper Thibaut Courtois. 

But then they responded with five unanswered goals, the first two of which came from Vinicius Junior. The young star on Madrid’s left wing caused problems for Liverpool’s Trent Alexander-Arnold just as he did in last year’s Champions League final, as he won the free kick that set up their third goal and later assisted their fifth goal with a pass to Karim Benzema.

Vinicius struggled upon returning from the World Cup, failing to register a goal or assist in his first four matches back with the club. However, he’s now scored a goal in six of his last 10 matches in all competitions, and has scored or assisted in each of the last four. His performance against Liverpool put him on five goals and two assists in those last four matches, including the Club World Cup. 

The Brazilian winger is tough to stop even when he’s not in form. According to Opta, his 198 take-ons are the most of any player in the big five leagues of Europe this year — and nearly 70 more than second-place Lionel Messi. He also has the third-most touches of any player in the opponent’s penalty area, and the most shot involvements after a dribble. With Benzema inside keeping defenses honest, he’s going to cause problems for any team he faces.

One of his goals in his last 10 outings came against Atletico Madrid back on January 23. Real Madrid defeated Atletico 3-1 at the Santiago Bernabeu in their Copa del Rey matchup, but the headlines before and after the fixture dealt with the racial abuse directed at Vinicius. His goal in the 120th minute sealed the win, and his ensuing celebration showed just how much he wanted to get a goal to rub it in the faces of the Atletico supporters.

Los insultos siguen… pero el baile también… Nos vemos en Liverpool! ¡HALAMADRID! ???? pic.twitter.com/wWNRrx7Ing

— Vini Jr. (@vinijr) February 18, 2023

“The insults continue, but so does the dancing” was the tweet from Vini Jr after silencing even more racial chants in Real’s 2-0 win at Osasuna at the weekend. No human should ever have to endure what Vini Jr is, but he is responding to the hate and vitriol in the best way he can and letting his play have the last word.

Vinicius is determined to continue dancing, and there’s no team he’d like to celebrate scoring against more at the moment than Atletico Madrid. With Rodrygo likely out this weekend, much of Real Madrid’s attack will focus on the left side. With a price of +250 to score anytime, combined with the form he’s currently enjoying, I’m banking on him to bust out another samba session on Saturday. 

My best bet: Vinicius Junior anytime goalscorer (+250 at BetMGM)

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid side analysis

Not only are Real Madrid playing well at the moment, they’re not allowing goals. Five of Real’s last six matches in La Liga have seen them keep a clean sheet, a big reason why they’ve won four of those outings. Their only defeat in that span was a 1-0 loss at Mallorca two weeks ago. 

They’re unbeaten at home in league play, with seven wins in 10 outings. However, they will be without Rodrygo and David Alaba, both injured against Liverpool, in addition to Ferland Mendy. They could see the return of Aurelien Tchouameni to the bench. 

Atletico Madrid have also been enjoying a good spell of form after an up-and-down campaign in the league. After winning just one of six matches either side of the World Cup, Simeone’s men now have claimed four victories and a draw over their last five matches. They’re also keeping clean sheets, with all four wins seeing their opponents failing to score. Atletico Madrid will be without Thomas Lemar and Rodrigo de Paul as well.

Atletico have a pair of 1-0 wins away from home to their name in their last two away matches, but they’ve won just once at the Santiago Bernabeu in their last 12 visits in all competitions. They’ve lost each of their last four, including the Copa del Rey defeat, and haven’t scored in four of their last five visits. That’s why Real Madrid are favored to win, and I expect them to do so yet again on Saturday. 

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Over/Under analysis

Atletico’s defense tends to cause some issues for Real Madrid’s attack, and that’s why the Under is slightly favored at most books. Atletico’s last four matches in La Liga have seen two or fewer goals scored, with just one of those matches even featuring a second goal. In fact, nine of their last 10 La Liga matches have seen fewer than three goals.

Real Madrid showed on Tuesday that they can score in droves, but Liverpool played recklessly on defense. That won’t be the case on Saturday. Still, six of their 10 home matches in La Liga this year have gone Over the 2.5 goal mark, including their 4-0 win over Elche on Feb 15. 

Eight of the last nine meetings between these rivals have seen a final score going Under the 2.5 mark. If you discount the extra time between the two sides in their Copa del Rey match, then the last five meetings at the Bernabeu have also seen fewer than three goals scored. 

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid game info

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid key injuries

Real Madrid: Rodrygo F (Out), David Alaba D (Out), Ferland Mendy D (Out).
Atletico Madrid: Thomas Lemar M (Out), Rodrigo de Paul M (Out). 

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid weather

Saturday evening in Madrid will be a bit chilly, with temperatures in the upper 30s at kickoff. There will be some rain earlier in the day, but conditions should be dry at or shortly after kickoff with a slight breeze. 

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