Real Madrid vs Chelsea Picks: Expect Both Teams To Dig In On D

Real Madrid are the most prolific UEFA Champions League team on the planet over the past decade—but securing a fifth title in eight seasons might be their most difficult challenge in that span.

Madrid are modest soccer betting favorites for the first leg of their Champions League semifinal match with a Chelsea side that has emerged as one of the top defensive clubs in the world in recent weeks. Both sides used elite goal prevention to advance to the final four, with Real Madrid earning a 3-1 aggregate victory over 2019 champion Liverpool and Chelsea shading FC Porto 2-1.

Regardless of who wins, it's unlikely that either of these teams will the Champions League betting favorite in the final. Madrid (+350) and Chelsea (+400) lag behind both Manchester City (+137) and Paris Saint-Germain (+300), who face off in the other semifinal.

These are our favorite Champions League bets for Real Madrid vs. Chelsea on April 27.

Real Madrid vs Chelsea odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Compare Champions League odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Premier League sharp money and line movement report

By Patrick Everson

Real Madrid opened as a +120 favorite on April 13 at DraftKings and steadily loosened to +150, with Chelsea +210 and Draw +205 as of 12:30 p.m. ET on game day. Still, Real Madrid is taking 63 percent of bets and 68 percent of money. Chelsea is drawing 28 percent of bets/26 percent of money, and Draw is netting 9 percent of bets/6 percent of cash. The total opened at 2.5 (Under -132), and that price is all the way out to Under -182, with 59 percent of bets/60 percent of money on the Under.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Real Madrid vs Chelsea betting preview

Injuries

Real Madrid: Federico Valverde M (Doubtful), Ferland Mendy D (Out), Sergio Ramos D (Out), Lucas Vazquez F (Out).
Chelsea: Mateo Kovacic M (Out).

Betting trend to know

Real Madrid has not allowed 2 or more goals in five straight Champions League Matches.

Moneyline pick

Real Madrid are on a truly impressive run at the moment, having rolled to 12 victories and five draws since their previous loss back on Jan. 30. And they come into the opening leg of their latest Champions League semifinals appearance having not allowed a goal over their previous four games, including a semifinal-clinching 0-0 draw with Liverpool.

Now for the bad news: Madrid have also been shut out in three of their previous four games, including a disappointing scoreless draw with visiting Real Betis in La Liga play over the weekend. That won't fly against a Chelsea team that has allowed just two goals over its previous six games and has surrendered the second-fewest goals in the English Premier League.

Between Madrid's extended run of dominance and Chelsea's incredible 10-game away unbeaten streak (eight wins, two draws), it's hard to see either team giving an inch here—so we're favoring a first-leg draw at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium.

PICK: Draw (+220)

Over/Under pick

This won't surprise anyone reading this feature, but these teams have trended heavily toward the Under in recent weeks. Chelsea come in having finished below the 2.5-goal threshold in 10 of their previous 12 road games across all competitions, while Real Madrid have played three scoreless draws in their last four games.

While it might have appeared early in the tournament that Madrid was destined to be a superior Over play — they saw a whopping 14 goals scored in their first three group stage contests — they've now gone Under in five of their past seven Champions League outings. Chelsea have also settled in after some high-scoring early games with five straight tournament Unders.

Don't get cute here. This has all the makings of a low-scoring affair, and you should bet it accordingly.

PICK: Under 2.5 (-163)

Card prop pick

It can be difficult to find strong prop plays for a game that many expect to produce one or two goals at the most. So we're steering away from anything score-related here and opting instead for a card prop—and there are a couple of reasons to like the pick we're making here, based on existing tournament trends.

Both teams have earned exactly 15 yellow cards through their first 10 games, which puts the Under on the card prop of 3.5 (+100) in play. However, it's worth noting that Chelsea have been whistled for a tournament-high 142 fouls so far, while Real Madrid have just 102 infractions to date—the second-fewest of any of the final four teams.

Chelsea's aggressiveness have served them well, but it also puts them at a disadvantage Tuesday against a more disciplined Real Madrid team that is a good bet to win the yellow card battle.

PICK: Card Handicap: Chelsea 0 (+125)

Real Madrid vs Chelsea betting card

• Draw (+220)
• Under 2.5 (-163)
• Card Handicap: Chelsea 0 (+125)

Picks made on 4/26/2021 at 7:33 a.m. ET

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