This Wednesday, Real Madrid and Manchester City will meet at the Santiago Bernabeu in the Champions League's marquee matchup for a spot in the Last 16.
The first leg was a five-goal thriller that Real Madrid ended up winning. That day, there were lots of spaces in the City defense, and with them needing to score here, it’s only going to create more opportunities to be hit on the counterattack.
That's why my Real Madrid vs. Manchester City predictions have the speedy Vinicius Junior scoring against City on Wednesday, February 19 with kickoff at 3:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+.
Real Madrid vs Man City picks and predictions
My best bet:
Vinicius Junior anytime goalscorer (+102 at TonyBet)
My analysis
Vinicius Junior was the center of attention in the first game, with City fans unfurling a tifo taunting Vini Jr. for finishing second in the Ballon d’Or race to their midfielder Rodri. Vinicius had the last laugh with Real Madrid taking the win in the dying minutes of the game.
Although Vini didn’t score last week, he was close. He managed three shots at the City goal, one of which was on target, and it was his shot that allowed Jude Bellingham to score.
That goal showed exactly why Vinicius is so dangerous against this defense. He used his speed to poke the ball away from Rico Lewis just into the City half before using his electric pace to get it towards the edge of the area, before dinking the ball towards the far post, allowing an on-rushing Bellingham to knock it in.
With Real Madrid holding a one-goal lead, the pressure is on City to score and level the tie. Real are in a position where they can just sit back and soak up the City pressure before hitting them on the counterattack. With the pace in the frontline — including Rodrygo, Kylian Mbappe, and Vinicius — they’re incredibly dangerous.
Vini Jr. has only scored eight goals in La Liga this season. The manager initially struggled to find a way to include both the Brazilian and Mbappe in the same team, but Carlo Ancelotti seems to have solved the puzzle.
In the Champions League, Vinicius Jr. has averaged a goal per game, with seven scored in seven appearances so far. He has also averaged 3.6 shots per game.
With his speed and positioning it makes Vini Jr a huge threat against a City team who’ll need to commit bodies forward in order to get back into this tie. Back the 24-year-old to score another goal and continue to be a thorn in City’s side.
Real Madrid vs Man City same-game parlay (SGP)
Vinicius Junior anytime goalscorer
Erling Haaland anytime goalscorer
Over 0.5 first-half goals
The big Norwegian has been putting up big numbers once again for his club this season. He’s scored 19 times in the Premier League and a further eight in nine UCL games — including the two goals he got in the first leg of this game last week.
Real have had Over 0.5 goals land in seven of nine Champions League games this season, while it’s also been a winner in six of Real’s nine UCL games. It’s also worth noting there was a goal inside the first 20 minutes when these teams met last Tuesday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Real Madrid vs Man City odds
Real Madrid vs Man City live odds
Real Madrid vs Man City opening odds
- Moneyline: Real Madrid -120 | Man City +275
- Draw: +320
- Over/Under: Over 3.5 | Under 3.5
Real Madrid vs Man City side and Over/Under analysis
- Real Madrid has won three of the past six meetings between these teams at the Santiago Bernabeu, with two draws and one City win.
- Eight of the past 10 meetings in all competitions have had Over 2.5 goals, including three of the past four.
- Seven of Real’s nine games in the UCL have had Over 2.5 goals.
How to watch Real Madrid vs Man City
| Location | Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid, Spain |
| Date | Wednesday, 2-19-2025 |
| Time | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Paramount+ |
| Weather | Mostly sunny, 0% POP. |
Real Madrid vs Man City key injuries
Real Madrid: Lucas Vazquez MID (Out), Dani Carvajal RB (Out), Eder Militao CB (Out), Antonio Rudiger CB (Questionable), David Alaba DEF (Questionable).
Man City: Rodri CM (Out), Manuel Akanji CB (Questionable), Jack Grealish LW (Questionable).
Not intended for use in MA.
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