San Jose Earthquakes vs FC Dallas Picks and Predictions: Two-Way Offense in Tight West Contest

Saturday night’s clash between fourth-place FC Dallas and fifth-place San Jose Earthquakes will be about more than just positioning in the Western Conference table. It’ll be about determining whether the host side is a legitimate contender for a playoff spot, or whether their strong start to the campaign was simply fool’s gold.

San Jose have been abysmal away from home this season, but now hope to end a run of just one win in six across all competitions as they return home to Paypal Park, where they’ve won five of six without defeat. To do so, they’ll need to defeat a Dallas squad that has had mixed results way from home, but are unbeaten in their last four in league play.

Will San Jose show they’re truly better than they were a season ago, or will Dallas come in and prove to be rude visitors? We break down the MLS odds in our San Jose vs FC Dallas betting picks and predictions for Saturday, May 27. 

San Jose Earthquakes vs FC Dallas best odds

San Jose Earthquakes vs FC Dallas picks and predictions

San Jose has to wonder why people like the city of Los Angeles so much. For them, it was anything but enjoyable as they fell 2-1 to both the LA Galaxy and LAFC. While they were rightly beaten in the first match, they’ll feel a bit frustrated about the latter as their downfall came by way of a 95th-minute penalty for Carlos Vela after a handball in the box.

After finishing with the worst point total in the West a season ago, San Jose will be happy with where they currently sit. Manager Luchi Gonzalez will know his side need to shore up their defense if they want to maintain their position among the big boys, however. Their 18 goals allowed are the most of any team in a locked-in playoff spot in the West, and have them sitting with a negative goal differential through 13 matches.

Dallas haven’t been great defensively either, with only one clean sheet in their last four matches and just three on the season through 14 outings. Their biggest issue has been scoring away from home. FC Dallas has just five goals through seven away fixtures in all competitions, and have yet to score multiple goals away from Toyota Stadium. The last away match saw them score an 89th-minute goal with a man advantage to edge Austin FC.

San Jose has been a completely different side at home this season than they’ve been on the road. Their six matches have seen five wins and a scoreless draw with Toronto. However, the talent level they’ve faced in those matches has been a bit lacking. Of the six opponents, only LAFC and Vancouver currently hold a playoff spot. 

What did those two matches also have in common?  They’re two of three fixtures that saw both teams score in a 2-1 final scoreline. Their match with Houston — the only other visitor so far even sniffing a playoff spot — also ended with the exact same score.

That’s why your best bet for this match is to plan on that very same type of match. Neither of these teams has been stellar defensively, as Dallas have conceded eight away goals through seven matches thus far. It should lead to a match where both teams are able to find the back of the net, and it’s unlikely to be a low-scoring affair. 

San Jose’s last six MLS matches have all featured at least four goals, with both teams scoring in each of the last five. Bank on seeing more of the same on Saturday night, as both teams find the back of the net for the seventh straight meeting. 

My best bet: Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score SGP (+120 at bet365)

San Jose Earthquakes vs FC Dallas side analysis

San Jose has taken 16 of a possible 18 points at home this season, outsourcing their opponents 10-3. That’s a massive difference from their road performance, where they’ve taken just two of 21 points and been outscored 15-7. They come into the match winning just one of their last five with three losses in that span. They’ll be without Nathan in defense still, while Cade Cowell and Niko Tsakiris are away at the U-20 World Cup.

Sebastian Lletget continues to be absent for Dallas, as will Paul Arriola. But they’ve managed to get results in each of the last two outings without them, as they’ve gone four unbeaten in MLS play with a pair of wins. Away from home, they’ve won twice and lost twice in six league fixtures, having been outscored 8-5.

At even money nearly across the board, San Jose are favored on the 3-way line to take all three points. If Dallas had Arriola’s creativity on the pitch, I would be very high on them to get a result from this fixture. That said, San Jose has simply been the superior side at home this season, feeding off the energy of their fans, and I’m not willing to bet against that trend. San Jose will win for the first time in five meetings.

San Jose Earthquakes vs FC Dallas Over/Under analysis

Obviously, we’re on the Over in this match, as it is part of our same-game parlay. It’s slightly favored in the market as well, with a -115 price on average. 

Both teams have scored in each of the last six meetings, with three or more goals scored in three of them. The last six matchups in San Jose have seen the exact same breakdown, with three of the last five going Over. The last five meetings have also seen a combined 19 goals at Paypal Park.

With Jesus Ferreria leading the charge for Dallas, and Jeremy Ebobisse having five goals already this season for the hosts, there’s plenty of firepower on display. That should lead to plenty of goal-scoring chances for a pair of teams that rank in the top half of the league in goals per shot on target. 

San Jose Earthquakes vs FC Dallas game info

San Jose Earthquakes vs FC Dallas key injuries

San Jose Earthquakes: Nathan D (Out), Cade Cowell F (Out), Niko Tsakiris M (Out). 
FC Dallas: Sebastian Lletget M (Out), Paul Arriola M (Out), Tarik Scott F (Out).

San Jose Earthquakes vs FC Dallas weather

San Jose will be pleasant on Saturday evening. Temperatures will be in the low 60s, with no rain at all in the forecast and slight breezes keeping things cool. 

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