Southampton vs Norwich City Picks and Predictions: Saints' Heavenly Run Continues

Financial troubles led Southampton to spend over half a decade in the lower leagues in the early 2000s, before the south coast club stabilized and returned to the Premier League, where they've since been a fixture for a decade. 

In the transfer market and in youth development, they've become one of England's most well-run clubs and one for others to look to emulate. In that regard, Friday's EPL betting underdogs, Norwich City, will get an up-close look at the stability they strive for.

The Canaries have been promoted or relegated six times since Southampton returned to the Prem, embodying the idea of a yo-yo club. Currently 20th in the table, a seventh league change seems inevitable and our picks and predictions expect Southampton to help push Norwich back down the football pyramid a little quicker. 

Southampton vs Norwich City match odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Compare EPL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Southampton vs Norwich City betting tips

• Prediction: Southampton (-188)
• Prediction: Over 2.5 (-130)
• Best bet: Armando Broja anytime goal (+120)

Predictions made on 2/23/2022 at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Southampton vs Norwich City game info

• Location: St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton, England
• Date: Friday, February 25, 2022
• Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
• TV: USA Network, DAZN

Southampton vs Norwich City betting preview

Weather

Norwich City and Southampton can expect relatively nice conditions for their Friday night match at St. Mary's, with clear skies and temperatures around 40 degrees Fahrenheit forecast.

Injuries

Southampton: Romain Perraud LB (Questionable), Nathan Tella AM (Out), Alex McCarthy GK (Out).
Norwich City: Tim Krul GK (Out), Lukas Rupp CM (Out), Adam Idah ST (Out), Jacob Sorensen CM (Out).

Southampton vs Norwich City predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Side analysis

A brief bright period for Norwich came to a screeching halt in recent weeks, when the Canaries were sent down to face Man City and Liverpool in the space of a week. Those two unsurprising defeats ended a three-match unbeaten streak that briefly allowed Norwich to climb out of the bottom but they once again find themselves 20th in the league, with a difficult trip south ahead.

Waiting for Norwich on the south coast will be a Southampton side playing impressive soccer in recent months. Since December, the Saints have lost only twice in the league, taking 18 points from a possible 36. Among that run are a string are excellent results for a club like Southampton, including draws against City, Man United, and Spurs, as well as wins over West Ham and Spurs in the rematch. 

Southampton's good run has left them 10th and in the table's no man's land with Brighton, eight points off the final European qualification spot but also well clear of the relegation scrap, 14 points up on 18th. Underlying numbers suggest their place is accurate, too, as they are 10th in goal difference and expected goal difference per 90 minutes.

Just as Southampton are, quite inarguably, a midtable team, Norwich are relegation fodder in the truest sense. They've rarely left 20th in the table this season, even as Newcastle United's winless start was reaching record length. 

No matter how you want to look at it, Norwich are the bottom of the Prem. Fewest goals scored, fewest shot- and goal-creating actions per 90, most goals allowed, and most xGA conceded. The only reprieve they have from 20th in any metric is because Burnley, 19th in the league, have played three fewer games.   

Not only are Norwich nearly automatic fades when picking a side, but Southampton have shown an excellent ability to pick up points where they should this year. They've only lost to sides below them in the table twice, once to Everton on opening day, and previously to Norwich, a game in which the Saints roundly outplayed the Canaries but were undone by a late header from a set piece.

Southampton will not drop points twice in as many games against this Norwich team. 

Prediction: Southampton (-188)

Over/Under analysis

As we've mentioned, Norwich's defensive record is hideous. They concede an average of 2.12 goals per game, with their opponents creating 1.84 xG against them per game. They've conceded three or more goals (nine times) more than twice as often as they've kept a clean sheet (four times).

So, it isn't out of the question that Southampton tops this 2.5 goal total on their own. That is especially true amid this bright spell for the Saints. In the 12 games they've played since December 1, they've scored multiple goals six times and have only been shut out once.

For as potent as Southampton have been in front of goal, however, they've been as leaky in defense. Prior to a 2-0 win against Everton last weekend, Southampton had gone 13 straight games conceding, allowing 25 goals during that stretch (including two to Norwich).

Southampton should be expected to put multiple goals past Norwich on Friday but in turn, it's difficult to believe in them holding Norwich out completely. 

Prediction: Over 2.5 (-130)

Best bet

Part of this good run from Southampton has been the club settling on a front two of Armando Broja and Che Adams in their 4-4-2 formation. Broja has taken the spot of Adam Armstrong, who has been among the flops of the season with just two goals in 19 appearances after a 15-million-pound move in the summer. 

Despite not becoming a regular starter until December, Broja is already Southampton's joint top scorer with six in the league, while leading the team with 5.8 xG. The Chelsea loanee's performance in the driving rain was central to the Saints' thrilling 3-2 win over Spurs in early February and has put him center stage for the upcoming summer transfer window. 

First, Broja needs to see out this year with Southampton, with his blossoming partnership with Adams critical. The two play off one another well and either are good bets to score against this Norwich team. However, it's Adams who often takes on the creator role between the front two, so we'll count on him to do the hard work with Broja getting the goal. 

Pick: Armando Broja anytime goal (+120)

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