USA vs Canada Picks and Predictions: U.S. Firepower

Just weeks after meeting in the CONCACAF Nations League final, the United States and Canada will reacquaint themselves in Sunday’s Gold Cup quarterfinals.

The US has had a week off to rest and regroup after clinching the top spot in Group A, and they will hope striker Jesus Ferreira can continue his goal-scoring ways against their northern foes. Meanwhile, Canada reached the last eight of the tournament by defeating Cuba on Tuesday to finish second in their group, but continued to look shaky in defense.

Will Canada find a way to end a 22-match winless streak against the Yanks on American soil, or will the USMNT continue their march towards yet another Gold Cup trophy? It’s all discussed in our United States vs Canada picks and predictions for Sunday, July 9.

USA vs Canada best odds

Odds courtesy of bet365 on July 8, 2023.

USA vs Canada picks and predictions

Ferreira’s performance against Trinidad and Tobago solidified his place as the “Pirate of the Caribbean” as his hat trick spearheaded a 6-0 win last weekend. It was their second straight 6-0 score line, and his second consecutive hat trick after doing so in their win over St. Kitts and Nevis.

While it’s highly unlikely either the United States or Ferreira will replicate either of those feats against Canada, a convincing victory isn’t out of the realm of possibility. In fact, the likelihood of such a result taking place is why I'm taking the Americans to win by at least two goals as my best bet.

With many of their top stars departing following the Nations League, this Canada side has failed to impress and looks a shell of what we saw just last month. They drew with both Guadeloupe and Guatemala, failing to score against the latter, before defeating Cuba. Even then, they conceded a pair of penalties as they made mistakes at the back.

The four goals against Cuba was an offensive explosion for a side that had scored just four goals in their previous four outings combined. Their 2-0 defeat to the United States in the Nations League final saw them put just four efforts on goal, despite having Alphonso Davies back in the side.

Even if Ferreria isn’t able to replicate what he’s done to the smaller nations in this tournament, this is a United States team with much more firepower and creativity than what Canada witnessed from Cuba or Guadeloupe, who scored two goals against them in their draw. Gianluca Busio has been playing well in the midfield, with a goal and two assists in his two starts, and is pulling the strings in attack. Meanwhile, the defense has conceded just one goal so far in the tournament and Matt Turner continues to play quite well in goal.

While Canada has a few players with creative ability, they lack the firepower to truly test this American defense. Jamaica’s front line was much more formidable and managed just a single goal. Defensively, they’re going to struggle with the pace and power of what the Yanks throw at them, and with top keeper Milan Borjan out for the remainder of the tournament, this one could get ugly in front of a very pro-American crowd.

The money line is too juiced, and the -1 Asian spread doesn’t pay enough for my liking. Instead, take the -1.5 alternative Asian spread at bet365 for a very generous price of +175 as the Americans win easily.

My best bet: United States -1.5 alternative Asian spread (+175 at bet365)

USA vs Canada side analysis

The 3-way line has USA getting around -154 to -165 as the heavy favorites to win in regulation. The draw is second choice around +300, while Canada are decided underdogs with a price as high as +450. That makes sense, considering it’s been more than 65 years since Canada went south and claimed victory inside America’s borders.

The USMNT lost a few squad players during the last week, but nobody of major consequence. It’s possible forward Jordan Morris and defender Miles Robinson could play more of a role in this match, with a full week off to rest from their injury issues. The USMNT is unbeaten in their last nine, with six wins in that span, and they’ve lost just once in their last 22 Gold Cup appearances.

Canada’s win over Cuba ended a three-match run without a win, and dating back to the 2022 World Cup they’ve won four matches, lost four, and drawn two. Borjan is out the rest of the tournament, and replacement Dayne St. Clair will be making just his fourth appearance for the national team.

It’s quite difficult to make a case for Canada winning this game with how they’ve performed so far in this tournament. Their A squad couldn’t get the job done a few weeks ago, and their B squad isn’t going to have any better of a chance.

USA vs Canada Over/Under analysis

The public has been leaning toward the Under on the match Total of 2.5 goals, with a price of around -120 on average. This is being driven in part by Canada’s scoring issues, as well as their solid defensive performance in the Nations League.

But this isn’t the same defense we saw in the Nations League, and the Canadians could struggle to keep the score down in this one. Two of their last three matches saw four or more goals, and there have been at least two goals scored in all but one of their last nine matches.

The Americans have scored six goals in each of their last two matches, and have seen the Over hit in three of their last five. Their pragmatic approach has been replaced of late by a more free-flowing style under interim manager BJ Callaghan, and it’s led to a rise in scoring chances.

Only one of the last five meetings on American soil, competitive or friendly, have seen these two nations combined for more than two goals. The last four meetings overall have also seen no more than two goals, including the 2-0 win by the United States in the Nations League final.

I’ll be staying away from the Total in this one, but I’d shade towards the Over simply because of the struggles in Canada’s back line.

USA vs Canada game info

USA vs Canada key injuries

USA: Aidan Morris F (Out), Alan Sonora M (Out).
Canada: Borjan GK (Out).

USA vs Canada weather

Rain could be a factor early in the match on Saturday. Temperatures at kickoff will be in the upper 70s, and rain and thunderstorms earlier in the day will be tapering off as kickoff approaches. Winds will be minimal, and the chance of rain becomes extremely low once the match gets underway.

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