The only way is up for Germany after a miserable run of results this year, but new boss Julian Nagelsmann will look to chart a new course, starting with Saturday’s friendly against the USA.
The Germans’ 2-4-1 record in 2023, on the heels of a group stage exit at the World Cup, brought the axe for Hansi Flick, but the latest soccer odds have the visitors as favorites to add to the win column this weekend.
That’ll be no easy task against a USA team that’s riding a 13-game unbeaten run, including Concacaf Nations League glory and comfortable September wins over Uzbekistan and Oman. But this clash with Germany represents the hosts’ sternest test yet.
Read on for our free USA vs Germany picks and predictions ahead of this October 14 showdown.
USA vs Germany best odds
 USA |
 Germany |
|
|---|---|---|
| +265 | Moneyline | -122 |
| +290 | Draw | +290 |
| Over 2.5 (-164) | Total | Under 2.5 (+113) |
Odds courtesy of TonyBet on October 13, 2023.
USA vs Germany picks and predictions
It’s tough to pick out many positives for the Germans from a year in which they’ve lost to Belgium, Poland, Colombia, and Japan, but striker Niclas Fullkrug is probably the closest thing to a bright light.
Fullkrug, who joined Borussia Dortmund this summer and has already netted twice for his new club, emerged as an X-factor during the World Cup in Qatar and has since thrived in the central striker role.
Despite being sidelined for last month’s friendlies due to a thigh injury, Fullkrug has four international goals this year, including a double against Peru, taking his Germany tally to seven in nine games overall. He’s a clear dangerman for the USA defense to handle on Saturday and would be one of the likeliest penalty-takers for the visitors too.
Surrounded by creative playmakers like Jamal Musiala, Leroy Sane, and the ageless Thomas Muller, the chances should be there for Fullkrug, and Nagelsmann is expected to turn to an aggressive 4-2-2-2 formation to maximize his team’s attacking strengths.
The Germans will be chasing a morale-boosting win to kick off the Nagelsmann era, and I’m taking these plus odds for Fullkrug to get on the scoresheet again this weekend.
My best bet: Niclas Fullkrug anytime goal (+160 at TonyBet)
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USA vs Germany same-game parlay
Niclas Fullkrug anytime goal
Both teams to score - Yes
Christian Pulisic Over 0.5 shots on target
There’s been plenty of confidence coming out of the USA squad this week and I expect the hosts to take the game to a German team that has to be considered vulnerable after such a poor year. Germany have leaked goals in 2023 and I like the BTTS prop in what should be an open contest.
I’m picking a Christian Pulisic prop too after an impressive start to life at AC Milan. He’s scored four goals already this season and stands out as a candidate to create shooting chances.
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USA vs Germany side and Over/Under analysis
The formbook doesn’t make much of a case for Germany ahead of Saturday’s friendly, but the visitors are favored nonetheless, with a talent edge over the USA and the potential for a “new manager boost” as Nagelsmann takes the reins.
A 2-1 victory over France last month – with sports director Rudy Voller temporarily in charge – was a positive sign for the Germans and snapped a three-game losing run. The Euro 2024 hosts are spared the qualifying campaign, but the clock is ticking to build some momentum for that tournament.
Under Gregg Berhalter, back as head coach after six months away, this USA team has been well organized and capable of going toe-to-toe with top-tier European nations. This fixture is a big step up after friendlies against relative minnows last month, but the hosts can take confidence from eye-catching victories over Mexico and Canada this year.
The attacking star power on show this weekend should translate to goals. Five of the USA’s last six games have served up three or more goals, with the Over on 3.5 total goals hitting in three of those contests, and they’ve scored at least once in each of their last 12 outings.
It’s been more of a mixed bag for Germany, with the goals drying up during a rough start to the summer, but they’ve still netted two or more goals four times in 2023. I expect a fresh start under Nagelsmann to unlock the visitors’ attack.
USA vs Germany game info
| Location: | Pratt & Whitney Stadium, East Hartford, CT |
| Date: | Saturday, October 14, 2023 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | fuboTV, TNT, Peacock |
| Weather: | Rain in the forecast with temps in the mid-50s. |
USA vs Germany key injuries
USA: Gio Reyna M (Questionable), Tyler Adams M (Out), Antonee Robinson D (Out), Zack Steffen G (Out)
Germany: Manuel Neuer G (Out), Serge Gnabry F (Out), Matthias Ginter D (Out)
