There’s a rich history of soccer between the United States and Ghana, and the two teams will renew acquaintances when they tangle in a friendly fixture tonight in Nashville.
Coming off a 3-1 defeat to Germany over the weekend, the Americans are hoping to shore up some of the defensive issues that have reared their heads since Gregg Berhalter's return to the helm.
For Ghana, a 2-0 loss to Mexico saw them overwhelmed and fully outplayed. They failed to register a single attempt on goal against El Tri, and will hope to show more fight as they prepare for their World Cup qualifiers in less than a month.
USA vs Ghana best odds
 USA |
Ghana | |
|---|---|---|
| -156 | Moneyline | +400 |
| +285 | Draw | +285 |
| Over 2.5 (-105) | Total | Under 2.5 (-127) |
Odds courtesy of TonyBet on October 17, 2023.
USA vs Ghana picks and predictions
I’ve rarely been one to bet on a trend. Doing so is often simply a way to give money to the books, given that the correlation between past events and future outcomes are often based on fallacy.
But once in a while, you simply can’t say no to betting on something to continue happening. Especially not when it’s priced at +700, like our best bet for Tuesday’s match between the United States and Ghana.
These teams have a history going back to 2006, when they met for the first time in what would be three consecutive World Cup tournaments. A goal in the 22nd minute for Ghana saw them walk away as 2-1 winners in a match that resigned the Americans to a last-place finish in their group.
Four years later, it was Ghana who again sent the United States home, this time with a 2-1 win after extra time in the quarter-finals. Ghana needed just five minutes to take the lead but 120 minutes to get the win.
The 2014 World Cup brought them together once again, but the Americans exacted revenge in the "Group of Death." Clint Dempsey scored inside 60 seconds but needed a late goal from John Brooks to win — stop me if you’ve heard this before — by a score of 2-1.
And in 2017, the two teams met again for their first-ever friendly. And if you guessed it ended with a 2-1 scoreline, you’d be right. Dom Dwyer and Kellyn Acosta put the Americans ahead as they held on to win.
So why are we banking on this trend if betting on trends is often silly? Because the current form of the two teams lends itself to such a score yet again. The Americans don’t look solid at the back under Berhalter. Germany carved them up repeatedly on Saturday, registering 19 shots to just six for the Yanks, and Uzbekistan missed two terrific opportunities last month in his first match back.
Ghana’s not as bad as they looked against Mexico. They defended solidly for nearly an hour, and rotated a fair amount. Mohammed Kudus and Thomas Partey lead a midfield that can cause the USMNT some issues, and are good for a goal on Tuesday.
But Ghana has just one goal in the first half of a match since February, and that should give the Americans the opportunity to get out in front. Not only have the last four meetings ended 2-1, but the team that scored first went on to win. At +700, I’ll bank on that happening again for a scoreline that should be priced closer to +500.
My best bet: Correct score 2-1 (+700 at TonyBet)
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USA vs Ghana same-game parlay
Full-time score 2-1
Half with most goals: second half
Our same-game parlay takes us over to bet365, where we’re sticking with a simple two-leg play given the limited markets for the match.
Going back to our “trends” between these two sides, the second half has seen more goals than the first in three of the four meetings. But more importantly, that’s how the matches have been playing out this year for both of these teams.
The USMNT’s three matches since the start of September have seen more goals scored after halftime than before on two occasions, and it should’ve been three if Germany had finished a few chances better at the weekend.
Meanwhile, four of Ghana’s last five matches have been scoreless at halftime, with the second half being the higher-scoring in three of those fixtures.
With the Americans likely to rotate out some bigger names at halftime, combined with Ghana defending well in the opening half of late, I expect we’ll see the majority of goals after the break. Combine it with the exact score for an even bigger payday.
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USA vs Ghana side and Over/Under analysis
The Americans are favored on the 3-way line to win with a price of -150 or more across the board. The draw is paying nearly +300 at DraftKings, while Ghana can be had there at +425.
The match being played at GEODIS Park in Nashville will be a big boost for the Yanks in the largest soccer-specific stadium in the United States. They have more talent and are in better form, but will need to be sharp to get the win.
As for the total, our best bet puts on the Over here. It’s paying even money in a few places, while the Under is favored at -125 or more.
That’s mostly due to Ghana’s struggles against Mexico, but a stronger lineup on Tuesday night makes the Over a good value play. It would be my best bet if we weren’t going for the exact score, especially with the American defensive issues and the absence of Tyler Adams in midfield.
Plus, with Kudus on one side and Christian Pulisic on the other, each team has a player capable of individual brilliance. As Pulisic showed on Saturday, that can often be all you need to find goals in international matches.
USA vs Ghana game info
| Location: | GEODIS Park, Nashville, TN |
| Date: | Tuesday, October 17, 2023 |
| Time: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
| Weather: | 56 F, 5 mph wind, 0% POP, 71% humidity |
USA vs Ghana key injuries
USA: Tyler Adams M (Out), Malik Tillman D (Out).
Ghana: None.
