While the match between the United States and Mexico already has high stakes given it’s for a place in the 2023 CONCACAF Nations League final on Sunday, the debut of Folarin Balogun is what most USMNT fans are excited for. The new addition to the American attack has national team fans excited, and a goal against their bitter rivals could make him an instant hero.
But Mexico aren’t just here for fun, they’re looking for revenge. Their defeat in the 2021 CONCACAF Nations League final saw them lose in extra time, and new manager Diego Cocca knows a win over their northern rivals could go a long way towards appeasing the El Tri fans who are still upset about their recent struggles in international competition.
Can the Yanks push their unbeaten streak against Mexico to six matches, or will Mexico spoil the debut of what many expect to be America’s next top striker? I break down all the betting angles in my United States vs. Mexico picks and predictions.
USA vs Mexico best odds
| USA | Mexico | |
|---|---|---|
| +125 | Moneyline | +225 |
| +210 | Draw | +210 |
| Over 2.5 (+125) | Total | Under 2.5 (-163) |
Odds courtesy of bet365 on June 15, 2023.
USA vs Mexico picks and predictions
The hype around Folarin Balogun is as high as any American debutant I can remember in my lifetime. Sure, guys have been rising stars, and we’ve been hyped to have them come over, but I can’t remember a player who came into his first match with the anticipation and track record of Balogun.
The USMNT has been looking for a consistent striker ever since the retirements of Clint Dempsey and Landon Donovan, and Balogun’s nationality change from England may provide the Yanks with just that. He scored 21 goals in France’s Ligue 1 this season, assisting two others across 37 matches. At age 21, he comes in with plenty of expectations, and he’s in fine form with goals in three of his last four matches for Reims.
The player who will likely benefit the most from Balogun’s arrival is Christian Pulisic. The Chelsea winger has had some struggles this season, fighting for playing time and not doing much with it. But when he dons the USMNT kit, he becomes a reliable player with 23 goals in 58 matches.
He’s also come up huge against Mexico. Pulisic’s penalty in stoppage time in the 2021 Nations League final saw the U.S. lift the trophy, and he was a nuisance to the Mexicans all match long.
Pulisic has made three starts in his career against El Tri, and while he’s only managed one goal, he’s created numerous chances that have failed to be finished off. Balogun’s presence should change that. More importantly, the new striker is likely going to draw more attention from the Mexico defense than most American strikers have in the past.
With the U.S. being without Tyler Adams in the midfield, it’s expected that Gio Reyna will play in the middle of a 4-2-3-1, or as an advanced midfielder in a 4-3-3. With Balogun in front of him and Pulisic to his left, he’s going to have plenty of opportunities to create some magic and Pulisic could easily benefit. And don’t forget that if the USMNT draws a penalty, it will be Pulisic who takes it.
Mexico haven’t been keeping clean sheets against teams with any real threat, and they’ve held the Americans scoreless in just one of their previous five meetings. Pulisic has either scored or assisted in four of his last six starts for the USMNT, and I expect that trend to continue on Thursday.
My best bet: Christian Pulisic to score or assist (+110 at DraftKings)
Not intended for use in MA.
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USA vs Mexico side analysis
The USMNT reached the Round of 16 at the World Cup last winter, falling 3-1 to the Netherlands. Since then, they’ve played three friendlies, losing one and drawing the other two — one of the draws coming against Mexico in April. They’ve also won their two Nations League matches to move them into the semifinal. Adams is their only real injury loss.
Mexico were eliminated from their group at the World Cup, going 1-1-1 but finishing behind Argentina and Poland. They beat Suriname and drew Jamaica 2-2 to reach the semifinal of the Nations League, and then played three friendlies in which they won once and drew twice. That includes a 2-2 draw with Cameroon last weekend.
Mexico hasn’t beaten the USMNT since 2019, and they’re missing a lot of firepower heading into this showdown. Jesus Corona was not named to the squad, and Hirving Lozano remains injured. They also will be without Raul Jimenez after his surgery this week, robbing them of their preferred starting front three.
While there should be plenty of Mexico fans at the match in Nevada, it’s not going to be a fun time for them. The USMNT are fit, they’re excited about their new weapon, and they’re going against a Mexico side under a lot of pressure and missing a lot of important players. I’ll take the Yanks at plus-money on the 3-way line in this one.
USA vs Mexico Over/Under analysis
There could be some value on the Over in this one. The Total of 2.5 goals has the Under heavily favored in the -160 range, which makes sense given it’s a semifinal. But the 2021 Final saw these two combine for four goals in regulation. And the addition of Balogun may solve a lot of the USMNT’s scoring concerns.
That said, the Under has been the trend. The last four meetings in all competitions have seen two or fewer goals scored. In addition, two or fewer goals have been scored in three of America’s last four matches overall, and five of their last eight competitive fixtures.
Five of Mexico’s last six competitive outings have seen the Under come through. That said, three of their last six in all matches have gone Over the total.
With international play, trends can’t be relied on too heavily. Too much rotation and too many friendlies cloud the numbers. Instead, I like looking at style of play. And these two teams tend to be in up-and-down, counter-attacking matches. They don’t like each other, and they badly want to beat the other team.
Given the price, I like the Over. That said, the better way to go might be the U.S. team total of over 1.5, which you can get in the +150 range.
USA vs Mexico game info
| Location: | Allegiant Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Thursday, June 15, 2023 |
| Time: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Paramount+ |
USA vs Mexico key injuries
USA: Tyler Adams M (Out), Kellyn Acosta M (Out).
Mexico: Hirving Lozano F (Out), Raul Jimenez F (Out), Jesus Corona F (Out), Hector Herrera M (Out).
USA vs Mexico weather
Thursday night in Las Vegas is going to be a hot one. Temperatures at kickoff will be in the low 90s, and there won’t be much wind to cool things down. There is a very slight chance of rain prior to kickoff, but it should be dry throughout the match.
