Wolves vs Arsenal Picks and Predictions: Arteta's Gunners to Fire

Our EPL betting picks for Thursday like Aresnal to pick up a win at Wolves but the real value can be found in predicting the final. Wolves can't score but also features a tight defense, so we think the Gunners win a tight 1-0 affair.

Sam Farley - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Sam Farley • Betting Analyst
Feb 9, 2022 • 12:27 ET • 4 min read
Bukayo Saka Arsenal EPL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Thursday sees Wolves welcome Arsenal to Molineux with both teams performing better than expected in the Premier League. Home team Wolves are chasing a Europa League spot while Arsenal are pushing for the top four and a return to the Champions League.

Which team will get one step closer to their objective with three points on Thursday? Don’t miss our Wolves vs. Arsenal tips and predictions to find out.

Wolves vs Arsenal match odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Compare EPL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Wolves vs Arsenal betting tips

Predictions made on 2/9/2022 at 11:40 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Wolves vs Arsenal game info

Location: Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton, England
Date: Thursday, February 10, 2022
Time: 2:45 p.m. ET
TV: Peacock Premium

Wolves vs Arsenal betting preview

Weather

The game kicks off at 7:45 p.m. local time in the Midlands. Temperatures will be below 40 degrees but fortunately for both Wolves and Arsenal, it will have been a dry and fairly sunny day.

Injuries

Wolves: Matija Sarkic GK (Out), Jonny Otto LB (Out), Yerson Mosquera CB (Out), Hee-chan Hwang CF (Out), Willy Boly CB (Out).
Arsenal: No injuries to report.

Wolves vs Arsenal predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Side analysis

Little was expected for either Wolves or Arsenal this season. Last year, Wolves finished 13th and saw manager Nuno Espirito Santo leave the club after a successful period, which had ultimately drawn to a natural conclusion. In came Bruno Lage, another Portuguese manager, and many Wolves fans were unsure what to make of the former Benfica boss and assistant at Sheffield Wednesday and Swansea.

Arsenal fans had a similar lack of optimism heading into the season. The club finished eighth in the Premier League in the 2020-21 season and a large part of the fanbase wanted Mikel Arteta out of the club, especially after the loss to newly-promoted Brentford to open the season.

However, as the season has progressed so have Arsenal, with the club now sixth in the league and four points off fourth place. As belief in Arteta has grown, so have the players' self-belief and they look like an entirely different side.

Both Arteta and the aforementioned Lage have shown commitment to their principles and it’s paying off on the pitch.

Lage’s Wolves play to their strengths and have one of the most unique for-and-against columns in the Premier League. They have only scored 19 goals all season, lower than everybody in the league besides Norwich and Burnley. While they’re not putting the ball in the opposition’s net they’re also not letting it in much, either. Wolves have only conceded 16 goals in their 21 games, which gives them the second-best defensive record in the country behind Manchester City.

Lage, like Nuno before him, sets the team up with three central defenders flanked by fullbacks tasked with both keeping the defense tight and also opening up the attacks down the flanks. Romain Saiss has been the pick of the center backs this season but Conor Coady's leadership in the middle of that backline can't be underestimated.

Ruben Neves and Joao Moutinho sit in the middle of the park and try to create for the forward line, which usually features Francisco Trincao and Raul Jimenez, although the Mexican striker has struggled to recreate past form since his horrific injury, scoring just four goals this term. 

Overall, if Wolves could be slightly more clinical they’d likely become a real handful.

Goals haven’t really been an issue for Arsenal, as they've tallied 33 this season. Bukayo Saka and Emile Smith Rowe have continued to grow into very good players and are rightly loved by the club’s fanbase. Both players should feature in this game, with Saka certain to start.

I’m expecting this game to unfold slowly with Wolves staying tight. The Gunners will find them tough to break down but have the playmakers available to do so. 

Prediction: Arsenal (+115)

Over/Under analysis

You won’t be surprised to know that I’m backing the Under 2.5 here. We’ve already talked about Wolves' low-scoring record at both ends, and that should factor into Thursday's game.

This season, Arsenal’s games on the road have generally seen plenty of scoring with 60% of them having three or more goals, but when Wolves play like this, that formbook goes out of the window.

Incredibly, there have been Under 2.5 goals in 30% of all of their home games this season and in four of their past five. You simply can’t bet on anything else despite odds of -163.

Prediction: Under 2.5 goals (-163)

Best bet

Given Wolves' form this season, one thing we can reasonably expect is a low-scoring final. I’m also fairly confident that Arsenal will add to their 11 wins this season and get another three points to add to their tally.

With those three things in mind, I love the look of backing Arsenal to win 1-0 in the correct score market. If you’re a believer in Arsenal winning a low-scoring game, the only real options are 1-0 or 2-0 in their favor. So backing 1-0 at +600 odds feels like real value given the odds on an Arsenal win and Under 2.5 goals.

Pick: Arsenal to win 1-0 (+600)

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Betting Analyst

Sam is based in the United Kingdom, where he grew up living and breathing soccer, before discovering - and playing - a different kind of football at the University of Bristol. He’s worked in the media covering soccer and the NFL for the better part of a decade, and has been a regular on the Matchbook NFL Podcast. His work has also appeared in a wide range of publications including The Telegraph, The Independent, VICE, and MSN.

The search for great betting value is a daily one, and Sam always hunts out big prices with a particular focus on player props. Sam’s best advice for bettors is to track their bets on a spreadsheet, that way you can keep an eye on your P&L but also the types of bets and sports that you are most successful in. He also recommends using a variety of different sportsbooks, with bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power amongst his favorites.

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