Argentina vs Saudi Arabia World Cup Picks and Predictions: Martinez Finds Back of the Net

Argentina kicks off the Group C schedule with an opening matchup against Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, with all eyes on Lionel Messi as he graces his fifth and final World Cup.

Arriving in Qatar with a staggering three-year unbeaten run, the Argentines are expected to make a fast start here and take an early grip on a favorable group.

But Saudi Arabia are riding their own hot streak after an impressive qualifying campaign that featured wins over Japan and Australia. World Cup odds have them as major underdogs, but the Green Falcons have nothing to lose.

Read on for our free Argentina vs. Saudi Arabia World Cup picks and predictions for November 22.

Argentina vs Saudi Arabia odds

Argentina vs Saudi Arabia picks and predictions

This has the feel of a mouthwatering game for the Argentina attack. The Albiceleste have found the net consistently in 2022, including a 3-0 win over Italy in the “Finalissima” clash in June, and coach Lionel Scaloni has plenty of depth to call on. Of course, their prolific form in the final third starts with Messi, who bagged all five goals in a 5-0 win over Estonia this summer.

But there’s not a ton of value in Messi props given the short odds. Instead, I’m looking at his strike partner Lautaro Martinez, who is poised to dominate at the World Cup. The Inter Milan star has netted seven times this year in Serie A and was on target for Argentina in the win over Italy as well as a September friendly against Honduras.

Martinez still seems slightly underrated when it comes to weighing up the best strikers in the world. Look for the 25-year-old to hit the ground running in Qatar against shaky Group C defenses, with quality service from Messi, Angel Di Maria, and Rodrigo De Paul. The Saudi Arabia defense, though organized and physical, simply isn’t accustomed to facing a striker of this caliber.

It also helps that the Saudi Arabia game plan will surely focus on limiting Messi’s impact. With defenders swarming the Argentina number 10, it should free up Martinez to do damage in the box.

The Argentines will have to be patient in this tournament opener, with the Green Falcons expected to get men behind the ball in a cautious 4-2-3-1 shell. But Scaloni’s side features enough good passers and creators to open the door for Martinez. When they do, he’s as clinical as it gets. I like these odds for the Inter striker to get on the scoresheet on Tuesday.

My best bet: Lautaro Martinez to score (+100 at FanDuel)

Argentina vs Saudi Arabia side analysis

Messi, Martinez, and Argentina are overwhelming favorites to start their World Cup with a win in Lusail. After all, they’ve been brushing teams aside on their unbeaten run of 30+ games. The oddsmakers clearly see this as a one-sided rout, with the Albiceleste staking their claim as legitimate contenders.

But with Argentina’s moneyline odds so short, there are other avenues to explore, including a wager on the Argentines to win by more than two goals at closer to even odds.

As good as Scaloni’s front three has been over the past few years, the defense deserves a share of the credit too. Conceding just eight goals in their 17 CONMEBOL qualifying games, there’s real stability in the Nicolas Otamendi/Cristian Romero pairing in the center of defense and Emiliano Martinez between the posts. It’s tough to see Saudi Arabia breaking through that wall.

If you like the Saudis to hold firm and force a cagey first half, there are also interesting odds for “Draw at Half-time, Argentina Full-Time”. But if Messi and company get an early goal, the floodgates could open.

Argentina vs Saudi Arabia Over/Under analysis

With Messi and Martinez leading the Albiceleste attack, it’s easy to see why the odds point to a goal fest here. The talent gap is significant — and facing a potent Argentina side will be a major step up in quality for a Saudi Arabia squad of fully home-based players.

Still, Green Falcons coach Herve Renard will have his team well drilled for the challenge ahead. Look for their 4-2-3-1 formation to quickly shift to a 4-5-1 when Argentina has possession, squeezing the space between the defense and midfield where their opponents love to operate. Even so, keeper Mohammed Al Owais should be busy. At the other end, lone striker Firas Al Biraikan will be asked to make the most of whatever service he gets.

In weighing up the Over/Under here, it’s a question of balancing Argentina’s desire to make an early statement with the fact that this is the team’s tournament opener and players will be easing themselves into the action. If the Albiceleste grab a two-goal lead, they could take their foot off the gas, especially with temperatures expected to reach the high 80s.

Argentina vs Saudi Arabia game info

Argentina vs Saudi Arabia key injuries

Argentina: Paulo Dybala F (Questionable).
Saudi Arabia: No injuries to report.

Pages related to this topic