Chicago @ Milwaukee preview

Miller Park

Last Meeting ( Mar 9, 2014 ) Milwaukee 8, Chi. Cubs 10


Matt Garza doesn’t figure to lack for motivation when he starts for the Milwaukee Brewers against the visiting Chicago Cubs on Friday. Garza went 21-18 in 2 1/2 seasons with the Cubs before being traded to Texas last season and signing with the Brewers as a free agent in the offseason. He expressed his dissatisfaction with the Cubs in spring training and told the Chicago Sun-Times: “I’m going to try to kick their teeth in every time I get a chance.”

Milwaukee has won five of its last six games and possesses the top record in the major leagues at 16-6. Chicago has the second-worst record in the NL after splitting four games with the woeful Arizona Diamondbacks. “It’s tough,” Cubs shortstop Starlin Castro told reporters. “We lose a lot of games, close games. It hurts sometimes when you lose games that you were winning.”

TV:
8:10 p.m. ET, CSN Plus2 (Chicago), FSN Wisconsin (Milwaukee)

PITCHING MATCHUP: Cubs RH Carlos Villanueva (1-4, 10.93 ERA) vs. Brewers RH Matt Garza (0-2, 4.50)

Villanueva has been torched over his last two outings, giving up 14 runs and 19 hits in just 7 2/3 innings. He has lasted five frames in only one of his three starts but does have 13 strikeouts against just one walk in 14 total innings. Villanueva is 1-0 with a 2.77 ERA in five career appearances (one start) against the Brewers, for whom he pitched from 2006-10.

Garza was roughed up by Pittsburgh in his last outing but escaped with a no-decision after giving up six runs (five earned) and eight hits in five innings. He lost 1-0 to Atlanta in his Milwaukee debut on April 2 and has struggled since. Garza is 0-2 with a 3.00 ERA in two career starts against the Cubs.

WALK-OFFS

1. Milwaukee went 13-6 against the Cubs last season.

2. Brewers RHP Francisco Rodriguez hasn’t allowed a run in 12 appearances and has converted all nine save opportunities.

3. Chicago OF Justin Ruggiano (hamstring) was placed on the 15-day disabled list on Thursday and could miss close to a month.

PREDICTION: Brewers 9, Cubs 4

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About Units and “ROI”

Units are a standardized measurement used to determine the size of each of your bets relative to your bankroll. For example, if you have a bankroll of $200 and you bet 5% of your bankroll each time, each of your units is worth $10. A bettor with a $2000 bankroll who bets 5% per bet has units of $100. We use the number of units to standardize the amount the trend is up or down across different bet amounts.

ROI is the best indicator of success and measures how much you bet vs. how much you profited. Any positive ROI is good in sports betting with great long-term bettors sitting in the 5-7% range.

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