Boston @ Texas preview

Globe Life Park in Arlington

Last Meeting ( Aug 8, 2012 ) Texas 10, Boston 9

Two division leaders get together in Texas when the Boston Red Sox visit the Rangers in Friday’s opener of a three-game series. Boston leads the American League East with a 20-8 mark, the top record in baseball. The Red Sox are also the best road team in the majors with an impressive 9-3 record. Texas leads the AL West with a 17-11 record but has dropped four of its last five games.

Boston slugger Mike Napoli returns to Rangers Ballpark after playing the previous two seasons with Texas. Napoli is off to a blistering start for the Red Sox with six homers and 31 RBIs. He already has 15 doubles while recapturing his 2011 form when he set career highs for average (.320), homers (30) and RBIs (75). Boston designated hitter David Ortiz also is hitting well and has at least one extra-base hit in nine consecutive games. Texas third baseman Adrian Beltre homered for the lone run in Thursday’s 3-1 loss to the Chicago White Sox but also hit into an inning-ending double play with the bases loaded in the sixth and struck out with two on to end the eighth. “I’m here to produce,” Beltre said afterward. “Obviously, it’s not happening. I’m not frustrated but of course I want to do better.”

TV: 8:05 p.m. ET, New England Sports Network (Boston), KTXA (Texas)

PITCHING MATCHUP: Red Sox LH Felix Doubront (3-0, 4.24 ERA) vs. Rangers LH Derek Holland (1-2, 3.38)

Doubront has been hit hard by the Rangers and is 0-2 with a 10.32 ERA in five career appearances (two starts). Texas batters have a collective .388 average and Doubront’s career WHIP against the Rangers is 2.29. He enters the contest with a three-game winning streak and has allowed just 11 hits during the stretch. He has struggled with his control, issuing 13 walks in 23 1/3 innings.

Holland has allowed nine earned runs in his last two outings after giving up just four over his first three starts. He lost to the Minnesota Twins in his last start when he gave up four runs (three earned) and five hits in seven innings. Holland is 4-1 with a 3.00 ERA in five career outings against Boston. Former batterymate Napoli is 3-for-6 with a homer against Holland.

WALK-OFFS

1. Texas is 25-12 against Boston since the start of the 2009 season.

2. Rangers 2B Ian Kinsler is batting .441 during a eight-game hitting streak and is 3-for-5 against Doubront.

3. Red Sox closer Andrew Bailey is dealing with biceps soreness while OF Shane Victorino (back) could return to action in the series opener.

PREDICTION: Red Sox 7, Rangers 6

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About Units and “ROI”

Units are a standardized measurement used to determine the size of each of your bets relative to your bankroll. For example, if you have a bankroll of $200 and you bet 5% of your bankroll each time, each of your units is worth $10. A bettor with a $2000 bankroll who bets 5% per bet has units of $100. We use the number of units to standardize the amount the trend is up or down across different bet amounts.

ROI is the best indicator of success and measures how much you bet vs. how much you profited. Any positive ROI is good in sports betting with great long-term bettors sitting in the 5-7% range.

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