MIN +117 o8.0
CLE -127 u8.0
LIVE Top 3rd Apr 29
NYY 6 -170 o9.5
BAL 0 +156 u9.5
LIVE Top 2nd Apr 29
CHC 0 -146 o9.0
PIT 0 +134 u9.0
LIVE Top 3rd Apr 29
WAS 0 +168 o8.5
PHI 2 -185 u8.5
LIVE Bottom 1st Apr 29
KC 1 +139 o8.0
TB 0 -151 u8.0
LIVE Top 1st Apr 29
BOS 2 -130 o7.5
TOR 0 +120 u7.5
LIVE Top 1st Apr 29
AZ 0 +117 o8.0
NYM 0 -126 u8.0
MIL -244 o8.0
CHW +219 u8.0
ATH +174 o8.5
TEX -191 u8.5
DET +102 o8.0
HOU -111 u8.0
ATL -199 o11.0
COL +181 u11.0
SF -116 o7.0
SD +107 u7.0
LAA +192 o7.5
SEA -212 u7.5
MIA +176 o8.5
LAD -193 u8.5
MASN2, BSOHIO

Washington @ Cincinnati props

Great American Ball Park

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Nick Senzel Total Hits Props • Cincinnati

N. Senzel
center outfield CF • Cincinnati
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Under
-215
Prop
1.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Under
-215
Projection Rating

16% of the time that Nick Senzel has started against a lefty on the mound this year, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter. Nick Senzel's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last year to this one, going from 15.8% to 9.5%. By putting up a .304 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year, Nick Senzel is ranked in the 21st percentile for hitting ability. Utilizing Statcast metrics, Nick Senzel ranks in the 24th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .232. Nick Senzel's 5% Barrel% (a reliable stat to assess power) grades out in the 22nd percentile this year.

Nick Senzel

Prop: 1.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.1
Prop:
1.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.1

16% of the time that Nick Senzel has started against a lefty on the mound this year, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter. Nick Senzel's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last year to this one, going from 15.8% to 9.5%. By putting up a .304 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year, Nick Senzel is ranked in the 21st percentile for hitting ability. Utilizing Statcast metrics, Nick Senzel ranks in the 24th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .232. Nick Senzel's 5% Barrel% (a reliable stat to assess power) grades out in the 22nd percentile this year.

Spencer Steer Total Hits Props • Cincinnati

S. Steer
second base 2B • Cincinnati
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Under
-225
Prop
1.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Under
-225
Projection Rating

In the last two weeks, Spencer Steer's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.8% down to 0%. Spencer Steer's average exit velocity has decreased in recent games; his 89-mph seasonal mark has decreased to 76.9-mph over the last week. Spencer Steer's launch angle of late (1.3° over the last 14 days) is a considerable dropoff from his 16.4° seasonal mark. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Spencer Steer's true offensive talent to be a .326, providing some evidence that he has been lucky this year given the .029 disparity between that mark and his actual .355 wOBA.

Spencer Steer

Prop: 1.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.1
Prop:
1.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.1

In the last two weeks, Spencer Steer's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.8% down to 0%. Spencer Steer's average exit velocity has decreased in recent games; his 89-mph seasonal mark has decreased to 76.9-mph over the last week. Spencer Steer's launch angle of late (1.3° over the last 14 days) is a considerable dropoff from his 16.4° seasonal mark. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Spencer Steer's true offensive talent to be a .326, providing some evidence that he has been lucky this year given the .029 disparity between that mark and his actual .355 wOBA.

Lane Thomas Total Hits Props • Washington

L. Thomas
center outfield CF • Washington
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Under
-245
Prop
1.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Under
-245
Projection Rating

Graham Ashcraft will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Lane Thomas in today's game. Playing on the road typically diminishes batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Lane Thomas today. Lane Thomas has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 8.5% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the last week. Lane Thomas has been very fortunate when it comes to his batting average this year; his .287 mark is a good deal higher than his .257 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. In terms of plate discipline, Lane Thomas's skill is quite poor, sporting a 4.51 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 11th percentile.

Lane Thomas

Prop: 1.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.1
Prop:
1.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.1

Graham Ashcraft will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Lane Thomas in today's game. Playing on the road typically diminishes batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Lane Thomas today. Lane Thomas has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 8.5% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the last week. Lane Thomas has been very fortunate when it comes to his batting average this year; his .287 mark is a good deal higher than his .257 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. In terms of plate discipline, Lane Thomas's skill is quite poor, sporting a 4.51 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 11th percentile.

Kevin Newman Total Hits Props • Cincinnati

K. Newman
second base 2B • Cincinnati
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Under
-250
Prop
1.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Under
-250
Projection Rating

Kevin Newman has been pinch hit for 11% of the time when starting against a left-handed pitcher this year. Kevin Newman hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 87th percentile) and and will be challenged by the league's 11th-deepest CF fences in today's game. Kevin Newman's 2.8% Barrel% (a reliable metric to evaluate power) grades out in the 7th percentile this year. Grading out in the 3rd percentile, the hardest ball Kevin Newman has made contact with this year reached a maximum exit velocity of 105.7 mph -- a reliable indication of underlying power ability. In notching a .301 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Kevin Newman is positioned in the 25th percentile.

Kevin Newman

Prop: 1.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.1
Prop:
1.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.1

Kevin Newman has been pinch hit for 11% of the time when starting against a left-handed pitcher this year. Kevin Newman hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 87th percentile) and and will be challenged by the league's 11th-deepest CF fences in today's game. Kevin Newman's 2.8% Barrel% (a reliable metric to evaluate power) grades out in the 7th percentile this year. Grading out in the 3rd percentile, the hardest ball Kevin Newman has made contact with this year reached a maximum exit velocity of 105.7 mph -- a reliable indication of underlying power ability. In notching a .301 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Kevin Newman is positioned in the 25th percentile.

Matt McLain Total Hits Props • Cincinnati

M. McLain
shortstop SS • Cincinnati
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.2
Best Odds
Under
-220
Prop
1.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.2
Best Odds
Under
-220
Projection Rating

Over the last week, Matt McLain's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.9% down to 0%. Matt McLain's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off recently, going from 15.7% on the season to 0% over the past 7 days. Despite posting a .386 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Matt McLain has had positive variance on his side given the .059 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .327.

Matt McLain

Prop: 1.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.2
Prop:
1.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.2

Over the last week, Matt McLain's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.9% down to 0%. Matt McLain's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off recently, going from 15.7% on the season to 0% over the past 7 days. Despite posting a .386 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Matt McLain has had positive variance on his side given the .059 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .327.

Alex Call Total Hits Props • Washington

A. Call
center outfield CF • Washington
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-165
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-165
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 5th-best field in baseball for right-handed batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the highest temperatures of the day at 90°. Alex Call pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (32.8% — 75th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest LF fences today. Over the past week, Alex Call's 58.3% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 38.9%. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.311) provides evidence that Alex Call has had bad variance on his side this year with his .280 actual wOBA.

Alex Call

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 5th-best field in baseball for right-handed batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the highest temperatures of the day at 90°. Alex Call pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (32.8% — 75th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest LF fences today. Over the past week, Alex Call's 58.3% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 38.9%. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.311) provides evidence that Alex Call has had bad variance on his side this year with his .280 actual wOBA.

Keibert Ruiz Total Hits Props • Washington

K. Ruiz
catcher C • Washington
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Over
-235
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Over
-235
Projection Rating

Keibert Ruiz is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 5th-best field in the league for lefty batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the highest temperatures of the day at 90°. Keibert Ruiz pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Over the last 7 days, Keibert Ruiz's 53.3% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 43.1%.

Keibert Ruiz

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.1

Keibert Ruiz is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 5th-best field in the league for lefty batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the highest temperatures of the day at 90°. Keibert Ruiz pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Over the last 7 days, Keibert Ruiz's 53.3% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 43.1%.

Tyler Stephenson Total Hits Props • Cincinnati

T. Stephenson
catcher C • Cincinnati
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Over
-240
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Over
-240
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 97th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 5th-best field in baseball for right-handed batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the highest temperatures of the day at 90°. Tyler Stephenson will hold the platoon advantage against Patrick Corbin in today's matchup... and moreover, Corbin has a large platoon split. Tyler Stephenson has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

Tyler Stephenson

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.1

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 97th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 5th-best field in baseball for right-handed batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the highest temperatures of the day at 90°. Tyler Stephenson will hold the platoon advantage against Patrick Corbin in today's matchup... and moreover, Corbin has a large platoon split. Tyler Stephenson has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

Joey Meneses Total Hits Props • Washington

J. Meneses
designated hitter DH • Washington
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.2
Best Odds
Under
-235
Prop
1.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.2
Best Odds
Under
-235
Projection Rating

Graham Ashcraft will hold the platoon advantage over Joey Meneses in today's game. Playing on the road generally weakens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Joey Meneses in today's matchup. Joey Meneses's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 93.8-mph average last season has decreased to 90.6-mph. Joey Meneses's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last season to this one, decreasing from 19.2% to 9.9%. Joey Meneses's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off in recent games, falling from 9.9% on the season to 5.9% in the last week.

Joey Meneses

Prop: 1.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.2
Prop:
1.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.2

Graham Ashcraft will hold the platoon advantage over Joey Meneses in today's game. Playing on the road generally weakens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Joey Meneses in today's matchup. Joey Meneses's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 93.8-mph average last season has decreased to 90.6-mph. Joey Meneses's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last season to this one, decreasing from 19.2% to 9.9%. Joey Meneses's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off in recent games, falling from 9.9% on the season to 5.9% in the last week.

Elly De La Cruz Total Hits Props • Cincinnati

E. De La Cruz
second base 2B • Cincinnati
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.3
Best Odds
Under
-200
Prop
1.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.3
Best Odds
Under
-200
Projection Rating

Despite posting a .331 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Elly De La Cruz has experienced some positive variance given the .025 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .306. As it relates to plate discipline, Elly De La Cruz's talent is quite bad, posting a 5.45 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 6th percentile.

Elly De La Cruz

Prop: 1.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.3
Prop:
1.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.3

Despite posting a .331 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Elly De La Cruz has experienced some positive variance given the .025 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .306. As it relates to plate discipline, Elly De La Cruz's talent is quite bad, posting a 5.45 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 6th percentile.

Dominic Smith Total Hits Props • Washington

D. Smith
first base 1B • Washington
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Over
-250
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Over
-250
Projection Rating

Dominic Smith is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 5th-best field in the league for lefty batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the highest temperatures of the day at 90°. Dominic Smith will hold the platoon advantage over Graham Ashcraft today. Dominic Smith has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

Dominic Smith

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.1

Dominic Smith is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 5th-best field in the league for lefty batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the highest temperatures of the day at 90°. Dominic Smith will hold the platoon advantage over Graham Ashcraft today. Dominic Smith has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand Total Hits Props • Cincinnati

C. Encarnacion-Strand
third base 3B • Cincinnati
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Over
-250
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Over
-250
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Encarnacion-Strand in the 92nd percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 5th-best field in baseball for right-handed batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the highest temperatures of the day at 90°. Christian Encarnacion-Strand will hold the platoon advantage over Patrick Corbin today... and even better, Corbin has a large platoon split. Christian Encarnacion-Strand has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.1

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Encarnacion-Strand in the 92nd percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 5th-best field in baseball for right-handed batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the highest temperatures of the day at 90°. Christian Encarnacion-Strand will hold the platoon advantage over Patrick Corbin today... and even better, Corbin has a large platoon split. Christian Encarnacion-Strand has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

Ildemaro Vargas Total Hits Props • Washington

I. Vargas
second base 2B • Washington
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
-210
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
-210
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 5th-best field in the league for lefty batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the highest temperatures of the day at 90°.

Ildemaro Vargas

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 5th-best field in the league for lefty batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the highest temperatures of the day at 90°.

CJ Abrams Total Hits Props • Washington

C. Abrams
shortstop SS • Washington
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.2
Best Odds
Under
-250
Prop
1.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.2
Best Odds
Under
-250
Projection Rating

CJ Abrams will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today. In the last week, CJ Abrams's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.9% down to 0%. CJ Abrams's launch angle of late (-1.2° in the last week) is quite a bit worse than his 12.5° seasonal angle. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates CJ Abrams's true offensive ability to be a .298, indicating that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .019 disparity between that figure and his actual .317 wOBA. As it relates to plate discipline, CJ Abrams's talent is quite poor, posting a 4.33 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 14th percentile.

CJ Abrams

Prop: 1.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.2
Prop:
1.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.2

CJ Abrams will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today. In the last week, CJ Abrams's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.9% down to 0%. CJ Abrams's launch angle of late (-1.2° in the last week) is quite a bit worse than his 12.5° seasonal angle. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates CJ Abrams's true offensive ability to be a .298, indicating that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .019 disparity between that figure and his actual .317 wOBA. As it relates to plate discipline, CJ Abrams's talent is quite poor, posting a 4.33 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 14th percentile.

Joey Votto Total Hits Props • Cincinnati

J. Votto
first base 1B • Cincinnati
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-185
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-185
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 5th-best field in the league for lefty batting average. Among all parks, Great American Ball Park's right field fences are the 8th-shallowest. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the highest temperatures of the day at 90°. Out of all the teams today, the 6th-worst outfield defense is that of the Washington Nationals. Joey Votto will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Joey Votto

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 5th-best field in the league for lefty batting average. Among all parks, Great American Ball Park's right field fences are the 8th-shallowest. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the highest temperatures of the day at 90°. Out of all the teams today, the 6th-worst outfield defense is that of the Washington Nationals. Joey Votto will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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