Toronto @ Cleveland props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Arias in the 91st percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude in the league, which often leads to more offense. Gabriel Arias will hold the platoon advantage against Yusei Kikuchi today... and the cherry on top, Kikuchi has a large platoon split. Gabriel Arias has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards MLB's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Gabriel Arias will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report expects the 5th-best pitching conditions on the slate. Yusei Kikuchi will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Steven Kwan in today's game... and it's a particular mismatch considering Kikuchi's large platoon split. Steven Kwan's exit velocity on flyballs has declined in recent games; his 84.9-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 81.9-mph over the past 14 days. Steven Kwan's launch angle lately (-5.4° over the past week) is significantly lower than his 11.2° seasonal mark. Steven Kwan's 84.9-mph exit velocity on flyballs (an advanced stat to assess power) is in the 0th percentile this year.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report expects the 5th-best pitching conditions on the slate. Tanner Bibee will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Whit Merrifield in today's game. Out of all the teams playing today, the best infield defense is that of the the Cleveland Guardians. Whit Merrifield will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today. Whit Merrifield's average exit velocity has decreased of late; his 85.2-mph seasonal average has decreased to 82.1-mph in the last week's worth of games.

Daulton Varsho is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude in the league, which often leads to more offense. Daulton Varsho will have the handedness advantage against Tanner Bibee in today's matchup. Daulton Varsho pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.9% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Daulton Varsho's launch angle this season (19°) is a considerable increase over his 14.5° mark last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andres Gimenez in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Andres Gimenez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (57% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude in the league, which often leads to more offense. Andres Gimenez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (32.8% — 75th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Andres Gimenez will hold that advantage in today's game.

Oscar Gonzalez's BABIP talent is projected in the 88th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Oscar Gonzalez is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude in the league, which often leads to more offense. Oscar Gonzalez will hold the platoon advantage against Yusei Kikuchi in today's game... and even better, Kikuchi has a large platoon split. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Oscar Gonzalez will hold that advantage in today's game.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Jose Ramirez ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jose Ramirez is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude in the league, which often leads to more offense. Jose Ramirez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Jose Ramirez will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Myles Straw in the 88th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude in the league, which often leads to more offense. Myles Straw will have the handedness advantage over Yusei Kikuchi today... and moreover, Kikuchi has a large platoon split. Myles Straw has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (47.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Myles Straw will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects George Springer in the 90th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. George Springer is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude in the league, which often leads to more offense. George Springer pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (32.8% — 75th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, George Springer has had bad variance on his side this year. His .313 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .354.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Belt in the 85th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Brandon Belt is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude in the league, which often leads to more offense. Brandon Belt will have the handedness advantage over Tanner Bibee today. Brandon Belt pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.6% — 80th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude in the league, which often leads to more offense. Cavan Biggio will hold the platoon advantage against Tanner Bibee in today's game. Cavan Biggio has made significant improvements with his Barrel%, bettering his 7% rate last year to 12.1% this season. This season, Cavan Biggio has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 92.6 mph compared to last year's 89.3 mph mark. Cavan Biggio's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, going from 20.3% to 27.1%.

Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude in the league, which often leads to more offense. Cam Gallagher will have the handedness advantage over Yusei Kikuchi today... and even better, Kikuchi has a large platoon split. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Cam Gallagher will hold that advantage today. Cam Gallagher has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average since the start of last season; his .154 rate is considerably lower than his .171 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Matt Chapman ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude in the league, which often leads to more offense. The Barrel% of Matt Chapman has significantly improved, with an increase from 12.9% last year to 18.5% this season. Matt Chapman has made significant improvements with his Barrel% lately, improving his 18.5% seasonal rate to 27.8% in the past two weeks. Over the last 14 days, Matt Chapman's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.9-mph over the course of the season to 98.6-mph in recent games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Santiago Espinal in the 79th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude in the league, which often leads to more offense. Santiago Espinal has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Santiago Espinal has shown strong plate discipline this year, placing in the 91st percentile with a 1.53 K/BB rate.

Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude in the league, which often leads to more offense. Danny Jansen pulls many of his flyballs (42.9% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Danny Jansen has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 11.6% seasonal rate to 22.7% in the last two weeks. Danny Jansen's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, rising from 17.6% to 21.8%. Danny Jansen's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased of late, rising from 21.8% on the season to 31.8% in the last 14 days.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Yusei Kikuchi has gone over 4.5 in 0 of his last 10 games.

David Fry has gone over 0.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Bo Naylor has gone over 0.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.