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Texas @ New York props

Citi Field

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Corey Seager Total Hits Props • Texas

C. Seager
shortstop SS • Texas
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.2
Best Odds
Under
+160
Prop
1.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.2
Best Odds
Under
+160
Projection Rating

Citi Field projects as the #30 stadium in the majors for lefty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built just 13 feet above sea level, Citi Field has one of the lowest altitudes in MLB, which often leads to worse offense. Jose Quintana will have the handedness advantage against Corey Seager today. Among every team on the slate today, the 5th-best infield defense is that of the New York Mets. Playing on the road typically lowers batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Corey Seager in today's matchup.

Corey Seager

Prop: 1.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.2
Prop:
1.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.2

Citi Field projects as the #30 stadium in the majors for lefty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built just 13 feet above sea level, Citi Field has one of the lowest altitudes in MLB, which often leads to worse offense. Jose Quintana will have the handedness advantage against Corey Seager today. Among every team on the slate today, the 5th-best infield defense is that of the New York Mets. Playing on the road typically lowers batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Corey Seager in today's matchup.

Mark Vientos Total Hits Props • NY Mets

M. Vientos
third base 3B • NY Mets
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.7
Best Odds
Over
+128
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.7
Best Odds
Over
+128
Projection Rating

Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions in MLB. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-most humidity of the day at 81%. Mark Vientos will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Andrew Heaney in today's matchup... and even better, Heaney has a large platoon split. Mark Vientos will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Mark Vientos has been unlucky this year. His .221 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .276.

Mark Vientos

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.7
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.7

Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions in MLB. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-most humidity of the day at 81%. Mark Vientos will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Andrew Heaney in today's matchup... and even better, Heaney has a large platoon split. Mark Vientos will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Mark Vientos has been unlucky this year. His .221 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .276.

Danny Mendick Total Hits Props • NY Mets

D. Mendick
shortstop SS • NY Mets
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.6
Best Odds
Over
+115
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.6
Best Odds
Over
+115
Projection Rating

Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions in MLB. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-most humidity of the day at 81%. Danny Mendick will hold the platoon advantage over Andrew Heaney in today's game... and the cherry on top, Heaney has a large platoon split. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Danny Mendick will hold that advantage in today's game. Danny Mendick grades out in the 89th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (19.5% rate since the start of last season).

Danny Mendick

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.6
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.6

Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions in MLB. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-most humidity of the day at 81%. Danny Mendick will hold the platoon advantage over Andrew Heaney in today's game... and the cherry on top, Heaney has a large platoon split. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Danny Mendick will hold that advantage in today's game. Danny Mendick grades out in the 89th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (19.5% rate since the start of last season).

Jonathan Arauz Total Hits Props • NY Mets

J. Arauz
second base 2B • NY Mets
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.6
Best Odds
Over
+110
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.6
Best Odds
Over
+110
Projection Rating

Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-most humidity of the day at 81%. Jonathan Arauz pulls many of his flyballs (33.3% — 80th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Jonathan Arauz will hold that advantage in today's game. Jonathan Arauz has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .189 mark is considerably lower than his .238 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Jonathan Arauz

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.6
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.6

Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-most humidity of the day at 81%. Jonathan Arauz pulls many of his flyballs (33.3% — 80th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Jonathan Arauz will hold that advantage in today's game. Jonathan Arauz has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .189 mark is considerably lower than his .238 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Pete Alonso Total Hits Props • NY Mets

P. Alonso
first base 1B • NY Mets
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-175
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-175
Projection Rating

Pete Alonso projects as the 14th-best batter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Pete Alonso is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-most humidity of the day at 81%. Pete Alonso will have the handedness advantage over Andrew Heaney today... and even more favorably, Heaney has a large platoon split. Pete Alonso pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.1% — 78th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.

Pete Alonso

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

Pete Alonso projects as the 14th-best batter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Pete Alonso is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-most humidity of the day at 81%. Pete Alonso will have the handedness advantage over Andrew Heaney today... and even more favorably, Heaney has a large platoon split. Pete Alonso pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.1% — 78th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.

Robbie Grossman Total Hits Props • Texas

R. Grossman
left outfield LF • Texas
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-160
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-160
Projection Rating

Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-most humidity of the day at 81%. The switch-hitting Robbie Grossman will have the advantage of batting from from his better side (0) today against Jose Quintana. Robbie Grossman pulls many of his flyballs (34.1% — 84th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences today. Robbie Grossman's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better recently, rising from 40.5% on the season to 75% in the past week's worth of games.

Robbie Grossman

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-most humidity of the day at 81%. The switch-hitting Robbie Grossman will have the advantage of batting from from his better side (0) today against Jose Quintana. Robbie Grossman pulls many of his flyballs (34.1% — 84th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences today. Robbie Grossman's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better recently, rising from 40.5% on the season to 75% in the past week's worth of games.

Francisco Alvarez Total Hits Props • NY Mets

F. Alvarez
catcher C • NY Mets
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-162
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-162
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Alvarez in the 80th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Francisco Alvarez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (76% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions in MLB. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-most humidity of the day at 81%. Francisco Alvarez will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Andrew Heaney in today's matchup... and the cherry on top, Heaney has a large platoon split.

Francisco Alvarez

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Alvarez in the 80th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Francisco Alvarez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (76% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions in MLB. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-most humidity of the day at 81%. Francisco Alvarez will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Andrew Heaney in today's matchup... and the cherry on top, Heaney has a large platoon split.

Adolis Garcia Total Hits Props • Texas

A. Garcia
right outfield RF • Texas
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-200
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-200
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adolis Garcia in the 86th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Adolis Garcia is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-most humidity of the day at 81%. Adolis Garcia will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jose Quintana in today's matchup. Adolis Garcia pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (32.8% — 76th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

Adolis Garcia

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adolis Garcia in the 86th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Adolis Garcia is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-most humidity of the day at 81%. Adolis Garcia will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jose Quintana in today's matchup. Adolis Garcia pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (32.8% — 76th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

Marcus Semien Total Hits Props • Texas

M. Semien
second base 2B • Texas
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
-270
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
-270
Projection Rating

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Marcus Semien ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Marcus Semien is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-most humidity of the day at 81%. Marcus Semien will have the handedness advantage over Jose Quintana today. Marcus Semien pulls many of his flyballs (36.9% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

Marcus Semien

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Marcus Semien ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Marcus Semien is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-most humidity of the day at 81%. Marcus Semien will have the handedness advantage over Jose Quintana today. Marcus Semien pulls many of his flyballs (36.9% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

Ezequiel Duran Total Hits Props • Texas

E. Duran
shortstop SS • Texas
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-195
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-195
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ezequiel Duran in the 88th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-most humidity of the day at 81%. Ezequiel Duran will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jose Quintana in today's matchup. Ezequiel Duran pulls many of his flyballs (33.8% — 82nd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Ezequiel Duran has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 90.2-mph average to last year's 85.4-mph figure.

Ezequiel Duran

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ezequiel Duran in the 88th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-most humidity of the day at 81%. Ezequiel Duran will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jose Quintana in today's matchup. Ezequiel Duran pulls many of his flyballs (33.8% — 82nd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Ezequiel Duran has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 90.2-mph average to last year's 85.4-mph figure.

Mitch Garver Total Hits Props • Texas

M. Garver
catcher C • Texas
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-200
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-200
Projection Rating

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Mitch Garver ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Mitch Garver is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-most humidity of the day at 81%. Mitch Garver will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jose Quintana in today's game. Mitch Garver pulls many of his flyballs (40.6% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.

Mitch Garver

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Mitch Garver ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Mitch Garver is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-most humidity of the day at 81%. Mitch Garver will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jose Quintana in today's game. Mitch Garver pulls many of his flyballs (40.6% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.

Tim Locastro Total Hits Props • NY Mets

T. Locastro
center outfield CF • NY Mets
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.6
Best Odds
Over
-125
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.6
Best Odds
Over
-125
Projection Rating

Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions in MLB. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-most humidity of the day at 81%. Tim Locastro will have the handedness advantage against Andrew Heaney in today's matchup... and moreover, Heaney has a large platoon split. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Tim Locastro will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Tim Locastro

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.6
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.6

Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions in MLB. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-most humidity of the day at 81%. Tim Locastro will have the handedness advantage against Andrew Heaney in today's matchup... and moreover, Heaney has a large platoon split. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Tim Locastro will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Jonah Heim Total Hits Props • Texas

J. Heim
catcher C • Texas
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-230
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-230
Projection Rating

Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 3rd-most humidity of the day at 88%. The switch-hitting Jonah Heim will have the advantage of batting from from his good side (0) today against Jose Quintana. Jonah Heim pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.6% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.

Jonah Heim

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 3rd-most humidity of the day at 88%. The switch-hitting Jonah Heim will have the advantage of batting from from his good side (0) today against Jose Quintana. Jonah Heim pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.6% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.

Austin Hedges Total Hits Props • Texas

A. Hedges
catcher C • Texas
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.5
Best Odds
Over
-115
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.5
Best Odds
Over
-115
Projection Rating

Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-most humidity of the day at 81%. Austin Hedges will hold the platoon advantage against Jose Quintana today. Austin Hedges pulls many of his flyballs (34.3% — 85th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences today. Austin Hedges has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 86.9-mph average to last season's 84.2-mph figure. Austin Hedges's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, increasing from 36.9% to 45.4%.

Austin Hedges

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.5
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.5

Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-most humidity of the day at 81%. Austin Hedges will hold the platoon advantage against Jose Quintana today. Austin Hedges pulls many of his flyballs (34.3% — 85th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences today. Austin Hedges has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 86.9-mph average to last season's 84.2-mph figure. Austin Hedges's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, increasing from 36.9% to 45.4%.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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