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Boston @ Kansas City props

Kauffman Stadium

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Justin Turner Total Hits Props • Boston

J. Turner
designated hitter DH • Boston
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.2
Best Odds
Under
+165
Prop
1.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.2
Best Odds
Under
+165
Projection Rating

Alec Marsh will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Justin Turner in today's matchup. Justin Turner has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) but may find it hard to clear the league's deepest RF fences today. Justin Turner will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's game. Justin Turner's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off from last season to this one, going from 47.4% to 42.4%. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.319) implies that Justin Turner has experienced some positive variance this year with his .363 actual wOBA.

Justin Turner

Prop: 1.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.2
Prop:
1.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.2

Alec Marsh will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Justin Turner in today's matchup. Justin Turner has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) but may find it hard to clear the league's deepest RF fences today. Justin Turner will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's game. Justin Turner's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off from last season to this one, going from 47.4% to 42.4%. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.319) implies that Justin Turner has experienced some positive variance this year with his .363 actual wOBA.

Michael Massey Total Hits Props • Kansas City

M. Massey
second base 2B • Kansas City
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
+148
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
+148
Projection Rating

The #4 stadium in MLB for boosting batting average to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Michael Massey will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tanner Houck in today's game... and the cherry on top, Houck has a large platoon split.

Michael Massey

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

The #4 stadium in MLB for boosting batting average to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Michael Massey will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tanner Houck in today's game... and the cherry on top, Houck has a large platoon split.

Drew Waters Total Hits Props • Kansas City

D. Waters
center outfield CF • Kansas City
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
+125
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
+125
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Drew Waters in the 96th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. The #4 stadium in MLB for boosting batting average to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.

Drew Waters

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Drew Waters in the 96th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. The #4 stadium in MLB for boosting batting average to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.

Triston Casas Total Hits Props • Boston

T. Casas
third base 3B • Boston
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
-172
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
-172
Projection Rating

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Triston Casas ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Triston Casas is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. The #4 stadium in MLB for boosting batting average to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

Triston Casas

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Triston Casas ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Triston Casas is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. The #4 stadium in MLB for boosting batting average to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

MJ Melendez Total Hits Props • Kansas City

M. Melendez
right outfield RF • Kansas City
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Over
-220
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Over
-220
Projection Rating

When assessing his overall offensive skill, MJ Melendez ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). MJ Melendez is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today. The #4 stadium in MLB for boosting batting average to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

MJ Melendez

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.1

When assessing his overall offensive skill, MJ Melendez ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). MJ Melendez is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today. The #4 stadium in MLB for boosting batting average to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

Nelson Velazquez Total Hits Props • Kansas City

N. Velazquez
center outfield CF • Kansas City
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-135
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-135
Projection Rating

The #4 park in the majors for boosting batting average to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for hitters. The Boston Red Sox infield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest among every team playing today.

Nelson Velazquez

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

The #4 park in the majors for boosting batting average to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for hitters. The Boston Red Sox infield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest among every team playing today.

Bobby Witt Jr. Total Hits Props • Kansas City

B. Witt Jr.
shortstop SS • Kansas City
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.2
Best Odds
Under
-235
Prop
1.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.2
Best Odds
Under
-235
Projection Rating

Tanner Houck will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bobby Witt Jr. in today's game... and it's an even larger mismatch considering Houck's large platoon split. Bobby Witt Jr. has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and will be challenged by MLB's deepest RF fences in today's game. Bobby Witt Jr. has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.6-mph dropping to 86.7-mph over the last week. Over the past 14 days, Bobby Witt Jr.'s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (5.7°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 11.2°.

Bobby Witt Jr.

Prop: 1.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.2
Prop:
1.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.2

Tanner Houck will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bobby Witt Jr. in today's game... and it's an even larger mismatch considering Houck's large platoon split. Bobby Witt Jr. has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and will be challenged by MLB's deepest RF fences in today's game. Bobby Witt Jr. has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.6-mph dropping to 86.7-mph over the last week. Over the past 14 days, Bobby Witt Jr.'s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (5.7°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 11.2°.

Reese McGuire Total Hits Props • Boston

R. McGuire
catcher C • Boston
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-185
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-185
Projection Rating

The #4 stadium in MLB for boosting batting average to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Reese McGuire will hold the platoon advantage over Alec Marsh in today's game.

Reese McGuire

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

The #4 stadium in MLB for boosting batting average to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Reese McGuire will hold the platoon advantage over Alec Marsh in today's game.

Masataka Yoshida Total Hits Props • Boston

M. Yoshida
left outfield LF • Boston
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.2
Best Odds
Under
-275
Prop
1.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.2
Best Odds
Under
-275
Projection Rating

Masataka Yoshida has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (94% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this matchup. Today, Masataka Yoshida is at a disadvantage facing the league's 4th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 38.8% rate (95th percentile). Masataka Yoshida will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game. Masataka Yoshida has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 5.9% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the past week. Masataka Yoshida's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off of late; his 91.6-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 88.9-mph over the past two weeks.

Masataka Yoshida

Prop: 1.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.2
Prop:
1.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.2

Masataka Yoshida has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (94% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this matchup. Today, Masataka Yoshida is at a disadvantage facing the league's 4th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 38.8% rate (95th percentile). Masataka Yoshida will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game. Masataka Yoshida has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 5.9% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the past week. Masataka Yoshida's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off of late; his 91.6-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 88.9-mph over the past two weeks.

Adam Duvall Total Hits Props • Boston

A. Duvall
left outfield LF • Boston
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
-265
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
-265
Projection Rating

Adam Duvall is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game. The #4 park in the majors for boosting batting average to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.

Adam Duvall

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

Adam Duvall is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game. The #4 park in the majors for boosting batting average to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.

Matt Beaty Total Hits Props • Kansas City

M. Beaty
right outfield RF • Kansas City
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.7
Best Odds
Over
-165
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.7
Best Odds
Over
-165
Projection Rating

The #4 stadium in MLB for boosting batting average to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Matt Beaty will have the handedness advantage against Tanner Houck in today's matchup... and the cherry on top, Houck has a large platoon split.

Matt Beaty

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.7
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.7

The #4 stadium in MLB for boosting batting average to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Matt Beaty will have the handedness advantage against Tanner Houck in today's matchup... and the cherry on top, Houck has a large platoon split.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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