It's a beautiful board today and there are a lot of factors to consider in terms of betting pitcher props. There are some great hitting conditions, projected rain, and big winds.
These are my favorite MLB player props for starting pitchers on Tuesday, April 29.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for April 29
Lopez o3.5 strikeouts (+105)
Rodriguez o2.5 earned runs (-110)
Peterson u17.5 outs (-110)
Today's SP best bets
A's vs. Rangers
The angle: Lopez is tough to price as this is his first start
The move: Jacob Lopez Over 3.5 strikeouts (+105 at DraftKings)
When there is not a lot of information, it's tough for the books to price, and that’s what the situation is with A's starter Jacob Lopez. He is a bullpen-arm turned starter but has been stretched out in Triple-A before today’s start. He went five innings in back-to-back minor-league outings and has been piling up the punchouts.
As a reliever, he had five strikeouts over 4+ innings, but as a starter, he has produced 22 Ks over 14 innings. THE BAT is projecting 3.98 strikeouts today on just 74 pitches, which might be conservative. The Texas Rangers strike out at a higher-than-average rate. There might be a little ladder potential here.
Diamondbacks vs. Mets
The angle: The pitching conditions are not great at Citi Field
The move: Eduardo Rodriguez Over 2.5 earned runs (-110 at DraftKings)
There are 22-mph winds blowing out to left field, which won't help fly-ball-prone Eduardo Rodriguez. He is on the road and facing a New York Mets offense that just put up 19 runs yesterday.
The Arizona Diamondbacks left-hander projects for 2.7 earned runs in a game with a growing total that is touching 9.0 in some places. He has gone over this number in three of five starts and has faced an average-to-below-average schedule.
Rodriguez gets deep and has a good leash that always helps this prop. He can give up long balls and his K:BB rate this year might be headed for regression as he has not been a K/inning guy since his time in Boston — three teams ago.
Diamondbacks vs. Mets
The angle: Peterson is already a low-innings guy and has poor pitching conditions
The move: David Peterson Under 17.5 outs (-110 at bet365)
The New York lefty projects for 16.5 outs today and that big wind and decent temperatures aren’t helping the cause.
It’s a start vs. a good offense and David Peterson already has a short leash. He has gone over 91 pitches just once in five starts and has been profitable to this prop total at 2-3 O/U. Today is a much tougher situation. He has never gone more than 18 outs, either.
Not intended for use in MA.
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