The Houston Astros and Detroit Tigers continue a three-game series this evening.
It was a back-and-forth affair last night, with us cashing our best bet on the Tigers' first five-inning money line, but the Astros are coming away with the win. The win snapped the Tigers' four-game win streak and gave the Astros their second straight win. We're finding it difficult to separate the two teams today and have consequently headed to the prop market for our best bet.
My Tigers vs. Astros predictions break it down here, as I bring you my MLB picks when the two teams meet on Tuesday, April 29.
Tigers vs Astros prediction
My Tigers vs Astros best bet: Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 bases (+100 at DraftKings)
It's a good Yordan day, and that's where we're headed for our best bet.
Reese Olson takes the mound for the Detroit Tigers and has had a concerning start to the season. It's actually an issue that I'm concerned about going forward, and I'm sure he manages to improve on what has plagued him anytime soon. The biggest problem is the hard-hit ball.
Olson arrives at this game with a hard-hit rate in the bottom 20% of baseball. Curiously enough, he hasn't yet compounded that with a barrel issue, which makes me think it could get worse. Yordan Alvarez has been slow out of the gate compared to where you'd historically expect him to be. Only three homers at this point in the year is a little off his expected pace. However, there's plenty to like underneath the hood.
Alvarez is a screaming candidate for positive regression with an expected slugging, batting average, and wOBA much higher than his actual numbers. More relative to this matchup (much like you'd expect), Alvarez is still hitting the ball quite hard and ranks in the top 30% of baseball in such metrics. However, the thing that supports playing him at this price point is when you zoom into the specifics surrounding the matchup.
Olson leads all Tigers so far this season in surrendering the most homers to left-handed pitchers per nine and in batting average. He'll throw many breaking balls with the sinker and slider leading the way. That's a promising development for Alvarez, who leads all Astros in hard-hit rate against those two pitches this season. As noted, the hard-hit ball has been Olson's direct weakness this season. The Houston Astros star has been off his career pace so far this season, but the process has remained sound. Therefore, I'm not worried and expect him to excel this evening.
Tigers vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 bases
Over 8
Not much stands out about this game besides our best bet, which is why we're keeping our same-game parlay relatively straightforward. My projection for this game was 8.4 runs, and thus, I'm paring my small lean to the Over with our best bet.
Both pitchers are solid, but they are also exploitable. We talked about Olson's issues, and Guston has some similar ones. The two teams have more than enough overall power to get the job done on this total.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Tigers vs Astros odds
Tigers vs Astros live odds
Tigers vs Astros opening odds
- Moneyline: Detroit -106 | Houston -106
- Run line: Detroit -1.5 (+152) | Houston +1.5 (-196)
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Tigers vs Astros trend
The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 7 of their last 9 games (+6.10 Units / 51% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Astros.
How to watch Tigers vs Astros and game info
| Location | Daikin Park, Houston, TX |
| Date | Tuesday, 4-29-2025 |
| First pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | FanDuel Sports Network - DetroitX, Space City Home Network |
| Tigers starting pitcher | Reese Olson (3-1, 3.29 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher | Ryan Gusto (3-1, 2.78 ERA) |
Tigers vs Astros latest injuries
Tigers vs Astros weather
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