MLB Picks

Let’s keep attacking Yusei Kikuchi in a solid hitting environment with Ozzie Albies at +520. He’s already part of a four-player round robin I have, but his solo HR prop at +480 or better still carries +EV based on projections. Albies is expected to hit in the three-hole against a lefty, a split where he’s historically been stronger than vs. right-handers. Kikuchi’s profile is vulnerable to hard-hit fly balls, and Albies has already had success in the matchup, going 3-for-6 with a home run. There’s also upside beyond the starter, as the Los Angeles Angels bullpen has outperformed its underlying numbers, carrying a 4.51 xFIP that ranks near the bottom of the league despite a strong ERA. This sets up as a spot where the Atlanta Braves could generate multiple home runs.

Baldwin has already failed me this year, but of course, he got hot after I bet on him with back-to-back games going deep. He is currently tied for the league lead with five homers. A price north of +500 in Anaheim, with decent hitting conditions, is putting him back in my trust tree. He is a Top-10 hitter in baseball right now who isn't striking out. There are three other Braves who have taken Yusei Kikuchi deep over their careers in Ronald Acuna (+360), Matt Olson (+390), and Ozzie Albies (+520), so there is plenty of info for Baldwin, who handles lefties just as well as righties. This might be a great spot for a two-man Atlanta round robin homer card with the two shortest odds making better than 20/1 odds. That's six combinations at doubles. At 0.15 units per bet, that would be a decent winner at less than a unit risk. 

These are two quality starting pitchers, facing two lineups that have had their fair share of troubles — Philadelphia against lefties and San Francisco in general. The Giants have plated four or fewer runs in nine of their 11 games. 

Although the surface-level statistics may not show it, these are two quality bullpens. The Phillies have the best SIERA in relief (2.69), but a 4.17 ERA, and the Giants have a quality 3.81 SIERA but a grotesque 4.93 ERA.

Both of those bullpen ERAs are due for positive regression, creating value in the Under in the meantime.

Philadelphia has been anemic against left-handed pitching, posting a measly 59 wRC+ and .165 AVG in 112 at-bats. 

Robbie Ray performed admirably at Oracle Park last year (3.50 FIP) and has had plenty of juice in his first two starts (108 Stuff+), so he forecasts for a strong outing. 

Facing Christopher Sanchez is never fun, but he’s down one mph on his fastball and has been hittable (10th percentile average exit velocity, 14th percentile hard-hit rate). For as bad as San Francisco has been against RHP, the lineup is close to league-average against southpaws.