New York @ Cleveland picks

Gleyber Torres has hit .283 with a .350 on-base percentage out of the leadoff spot this season, so it should come as no surprise that the Yanks infielder is sporting a .400 on-base percentage in the postseason. With the way this offense is humming, he’s now scored eight runs in eight games, going just two games without scoring. Torres has also received five plate appearances in every game against Cleveland, so I love the plus-money value for him to cross home plate yet again.

Although Judge failed to record a hit against Tanner Bibee in their only previous meeting — despite flying out with an exit velocity of over 103 mph — he has a strong chance of success against the young fly-ball pitcher. Judge hit .309 and slugged .715 against fly-ball arms this season, racking up a team-leading 178 total bases in that split. Including the postseason, the New York Yankees slugger has also produced a .359 xBA against four-seam fastballs from right-handers and a .307 xBA against cut fastballs. Considering those two pitches make up almost two-thirds of Bibee’s deliveries, Judge should be lined up for another impressive performance tonight.

I played the Over 7.5 in Game 1 of this series and it landed on 7. I viewed that as a little unlucky, and it's done nothing to reduce my projection of nearly nine runs here. After Carlos Rodon's first postseason start against the Kansas City Royals, in which he allowed four earned runs in a loss, he acknowledged an issue, but so did many former Yankee greats. "Carlos needs to control his emotions," former Yankee Alex Rodriguez said on a Fox Sports live telecast. "In the first inning, I thought it was too much when I was watching it." The matchup isn't exactly the best either. The hard-hit ball has been a big issue for him this season, with a barrel rate and a hard-hit rate in the Bottom 10% of the sport. The Cleveland Guardians are well built to key on those faults.