Manny Machado is off to a hot start for the San Diego Padres. After finishing with an OPS below .800 in back-to-back seasons, the 32-year-old is in vintage form with a .317/.379/.483 slash line (.862 OPS) through 60 plate appearances. He performed very well at Petco Park a year ago with a 132 wRC+ (112 on the road), .282 BA (.268), and .811 OPS (.785). So far in 2025, those home-road splits have continued (159 wRC+ at home, 138 wRC+ on the road). Chicago Cubs hurler Jameson Taillon takes the mound with a 6.06 ERA through three starts. The veteran ranks in the 20th percentile in xBA and the 24th percentile in xERA, so it looks unlikely that he will repeat his 3.27 ERA of a season ago.
It’s been a rough year so far for both Jameson Taillon and Dylan Cease, who collide at Petco Park on Monday night. Taillon has an opponent OPS of .845 over 16 1/3 innings, and the Padres rank sixth in that metric this year. Dylan Cease has a garish 7.98 ERA over 14 2/3 innings, and he’ll face a Cubs lineup that ranks fourth by OPS in 2025. Two of these teams’ three H2H meetings at Wrigley earlier this month went Over. The Cubs are 12-4-1 to the Over this year, while the Padres are on a 5-2 run for Over bettors.