The Minnesota Twins will hope a home series can help turn around a slow start as they welcome the New York Mets for the first of three games on Monday night.
Both teams have played low-scoring baseball so far this year, and with a solid pitching matchup, I’ll be taking the Under in my Mets vs. Twins predictions.
Let’s break down what bettors can expect from tonight’s game in my free MLB picks for April 14.
Mets vs Twins prediction
My Mets vs Twins best bet: Under 8 (-120 at Caesars)
Tonight’s game features two teams that have been hitting regularly for Under bettors this season. The Under has an outstanding 11-4 record when the New York Mets have played this year, and while it is just 8-6 in Minnesota Twins games, the home side has hit the Under in six of its last seven overall.
While the Mets have been only a touch below average offensively — they are averaging 4.07 runs per game, along with a .668 OPS — the Twins have really struggled to generate runs in the early going. Minnesota’s 3.44 runs per game ranks 24th in the majors, and its .613 OPS is even worse, rating 26th in the league.
These basic numbers are an obvious signal to look at the Under, especially when it has been set at a reasonable total of 8. But this game also features a solid pitching matchup that has me expecting a low-scoring game.
Joe Ryan is a known quantity for the Twins. Now in his fifth season in the majors, Ryan was excellent in 2024, tossing 135 innings with a 3.60 ERA. He appears to be on track to be even better early in 2025, as he is 1-1 with a 2.65 ERA and a 3.47 FIP in the early going. Most impressively, he has yet to walk a batter (though he has hit four of them), which has allowed him to post a miniscule 0.706 WHIP.
That number isn’t sustainable, but the fact that Ryan posted a WHIP of 0.985 last season shows that he can be elite at keeping runners off the basepaths.
There may still be more questions about Mets starter Clay Holmes, who is taking on the role for the first time since his rookie season in 2018 after spending the rest of his career throwing out of the bullpen. We know that Holmes has elite stuff in short bursts, collecting 74 saves in the last three years for the New York Yankees; the only question has been how that would translate back into longer stints as a starter.
So far, the experiment has worked out reasonably well for New York. Holmes hasn’t been outstanding, but his 2.32 FIP seems a lot more promising than the 4.30 ERA he has put up in his first three starts. The biggest concern the Mets might have here is that Holmes is averaging less than five innings per start, but at 12.3 strikeouts per nine innings, they’ll take what they can get as Holmes works to stretch himself out into longer outings.
Holmes and Ryan should be able to limit the damage against these lineups, both of which are a bit top heavy and have some easy outs at the bottom of the order. Throw in the cold weather and minor rain concerns, and everything is signaling a struggle tonight for these offenses.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Mets vs Twins same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 8
Mets moneyline
Clay Holmes Over 4.5 strikeouts
Juan Soto Over 0.5 hits
Along with taking the Under here, I’m going to back the Mets to win this game outright. New York has won eight of its last 10 overall, and even if Ryan gives Minnesota a slight advantage in the pitching department, I trust the Mets to score more runs than the struggling Twins offense.
I’m rounding out this SGP with two prop bets on Mets players. First, I’ll take Holmes to strike out Over his total of 4.5 batters tonight.
Holmes has struck out 20 batters in his first three starts, including a sterling 10 punchouts against the Miami Marlins last week.
Let’s also take Juan Soto to deliver at least one hit, something he has done in seven of his last 10 games, and which adds a surprising amount of value when we pair it with the Under.
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Mets vs Twins odds
Mets vs Twins live odds
Mets vs Twins opening odds
- Moneyline: New York +102 | Minnesota -113
- Run line: New York +1.5 | Minnesota -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Mets vs Twins trend
The Under is 6-1 in Minnesota’s last seven games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Twins.
How to watch Mets vs Twins and game info
| Location | Target Field, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Monday, 4-14-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNY, twins.tv |
| Mets starting pitcher | Clay Holmes (1-1, 4.30 ERA) |
| Twins starting pitcher | Joe Ryan (1-1, 2.65 ERA) |
Mets vs Twins latest injuries
Mets vs Twins weather
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