A new week of MLB action hits the diamond today with 10 games on the MLB odds board for bettors to sort through.
That means tons of MLB player props to bet on, and luckily, I’m here to sort through the mountain of data and bring you my three favorite plays for the day.
They include a strikeout prop in Pittsburgh, but not for Paul Skenes. I also like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to drive in a run, but will it be via a homer?
Check out those and more MLB picks below.
Best MLB player props today
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Lord o3.5 Ks (+133 at Caesars) -
Guerrero o0.5 RBIs (+146 at Caesars) -
Taillon u17.5 outs (+146 at Caesars)
MLB props for April 14
Brad Lord Over 3.5 strikeouts (+133 at Caesars)
Paul Skenes takes the ball for the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight, so not surprisingly, he will get the majority of the attention heading into tonight’s matchup with the Washington Nationals. But my focus is on strikeouts for his counterpart, Brad Lord.
Lord is a 25-year-old prospect for the Nationals who is coming off his first career start. And it wasn’t half bad.
Lord had made three unspectacular relief appearances this season before his debut as a starter against the Los Angeles Dodgers of all teams. Lord only pitched three innings but shut out that behemoth of a lineup over that period, striking out four batters.
The right-hander relies mostly on a four-seam fastball that averages 95.4 miles per hour, and he tosses a sinker and slider in there for a good mix.
Tonight, Lord’s strikeout prop is sitting at 3.5 with the Over at tantalizing plus money. And let me tell you, the Pittsburgh Pirates are not the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Buccos enter this game ranked dead-last in batting average, OPS, and wRC+ and own the fifth-highest strikeout rate, getting punched out 25.3% of the time.
Lord struck out more than a batter an inning in Triple-A last season, and he looked much more comfortable as a starter for the Nats. So, hitting the Over on this number once again is more than reasonable.
Like I said, Skenes will get rack up the Ks, but Lord will put in some solid work of his own.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBIs (+146 at Caesars)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is going to hit a home run. I swear. His advanced metrics all say it’s coming. You can get it at +333 for the Toronto Blue Jays’ series opener against the Atlanta Braves at the Rogers Centre.
That’s fine value. However, I believe there is better value in him to just drive home a run tonight.
Vladdy enters this game ranked in the 95th percentile in expected batting average. He has multiple hits in six of his last nine games, which is good for a .361 batting average. He has also driven in a run in each of his last three games, and now he gets a solid matchup against Braves starter Grant Holmes.
Holmes began the year as a long reliever, but injuries to Spencer Strider and Reynoldo Lopez have thrust him into the rotation.
The 29-year-old right-hander is coming off an interesting start against the Philadelphia Phillies. Holmes shut out the Phillies over four innings but was rather inefficient. He threw 104 pitches in that start, and just 58% of them were strikes, and he ended up with four walks.
As a result, Holmes enters this game with a 5.82 expected ERA, which ranks in the 15th percentile. He is also in the Bottom 10 percent in average exit velocity and walk rate.
That means lots of base runners. Bo Bichette has also been hot for the Blue Jays, hitting .351 over his last eight games. My MLB picks like Bo to get on and Vladdy to drive him in tonight.
Jameson Taillon Under 17.5 outs recorded (+146 at Caesars)
It’s been a rough start to the season for the Chicago Cubs' starting rotation. It was just announced Justin Steele will undergo Tommy John surgery and will miss the remainder of the season.
Meanwhile, tonight’s starter Jameson Taillon, probably wishes he could blame an injury on his poor start.
The veteran right-hander has allowed 11 earned runs on 18 hits in 16 1/3 innings pitched over his first three starts this season. That has resulted in a 5.31 expected ERA and a .289 opponent expected batting average. Those both rank in the 24th percentile or worse among MLB pitchers.
And, to be honest, he hasn’t faced a lineup that is lighting the world on fire to this point. That changes tonight when he toes the rubber against the San Diego Padres.
This Padres lineup is locked in. Led by a red-hot Fernando Tatis Jr., they lead the majors in batting average while ranking fifth in OPS and fourth in wRC+.
Simply put, they’ll be a problem for Taillon tonight, and I don’t see this being a long outing for the Cubs starter.
Taillon’s outs recorded prop is sitting at 17.5 outs and while he’s gone Over that number in two of his three starts, he's been a little lucky. He’s also averaging just over 86 pitches per start, topping 90 just once.
I expect the Padres to keep rolling and get Taillon pulled from this game before he gets through six innings.
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