It’s Dinger Tuesday!
We’ve got the perfect recipe for home runs: Pitchers who have been tossing meatballs + wind blowing to the outfield.
Brandon Lowe is giving us some value at Steinbrenner Field, we’re fading Charlie Morton, and Tyler Soderstrom has a chance to become the first player to hit seven homers this season.
Here are my best MLB player props and home run picks for Tuesday, April 15.
Best MLB home run props today
Brandon Lowe (+475 at bet365)
Carlos Santana (+725 at BetMGM)
Tyler Soderstrom (+400 at BetMGM)
HR picks for April 15
Brandon Lowe (+475 at bet365)
By now, we are all aware of the theme with New York Yankees’ ballparks. Whether it’s Yankee Stadium or Steinbrenner Field, they are Baby Parks. I.E. small parks conducive to hitting home runs.
Not only is Steinbrenner Field — where the Tampa Bay Rays call home this season — small, but it is also aided quite a bit by the wind. We are seeing Wrigley Field level winds here. Steinbrenner Field has seen the second-most home runs hit in it this season with 36 (only behind Yankee Stadium, of course).
And wouldn’t you know it, the wind is blowing out to right-center field when the Rays host the Boston Red Sox tonight.
That has me looking at a somewhat diminutive Rays slugger to go yard.
I say that because when you look at Brandon Lowe, you don’t see your typical slugger. Lowe stands 5-foot-10 and weighs 190 lbs. But he’s got some pop in his bat, having hit 39 home runs in a season and 21 each of the last two years.
He’s already gone deep three times this year, and his advanced numbers say there could be much more coming. Lowe ranks in the 93rd percentile in expected batting average and the 96th percentile in expected slugging.
Tonight, Lowe will dig in against Walker Buehler, who ranks in the 34th percentile in xBA and has the highest xSLG of his career while already surrendering three dingers this season.
This is a good price to back Lowe to hit his fourth dinger tonight.
Carlos Santana (+725 at BetMGM)
This is an absolute fade of Charlie Morton. The veteran right-hander makes his fourth start for the Baltimore Orioles, and the first three have gone, um, less than well.
Morton has already surrendered 13 earned runs on 17 hits over 13 1/3 innings pitched. That includes three home runs. And it doesn’t stop there.
Morton has a 62.5% hard-hit rate, which is the worst among qualified MLB pitchers. He also owns the 14th-worst expected slugging percentage.
The 41-year-old takes the ball tonight against the Cleveland Guardians, who aren’t exactly known for their pop, but there is definitely some value to be found in the lineup.
I’m looking at fellow old-man Carlos Santana. The 39-year-old first baseman has been solid at the dish lately, hitting .278 with a .825 OPS, including two home runs over his last 10 games.
He is also one of the few Guardians with previous success against Morton. Santana is 4-for-11 with two doubles and two dingers in his career vs. the O's starter.
The switch-hitting Santana will also have the splits advantage against Morton, which plays an even bigger role at Camden Yards since they moved the left-field wall out several feet.
Tyler Soderstrom (+400 at BetMGM)
Of all the guys you would have expected to lead the majors in home runs, I’m not sure many of you would have guessed the Athletics 1B Tyler Soderstrom.
But that’s exactly the case, as Soderstrom has swatted six dingers already this season. And I like him to go yard again tonight when the A’s visit the Chicago White Sox.
It’s no fluke that Soderstrom leads the big leagues in home runs. The A’s slugger ranks in the 94th percentile in expected slugging percentage, the 89th percentile in barrel rate, and the 86th percentile in average exit velocity.
Tonight, Soderstrom gets a great matchup against White Sox rookie Sean Burke.
For starters, the lefty slugger has the splits advantage against the Chicago right-hander. Second, Burke has been rocked this season.
Yes, Burke has surrendered three home runs this season, but it’s more than that. Burke is in just the second percentile when it comes to opponent expected batting average, and his opponent expected slugging percentage of .707 is the worst mark in the big leagues.
It doesn’t hurt that the wind is blowing straight out at Rate Field tonight at 15-to-17 miles per hour.
At this price, in this matchup, it’s worth backing Soderstrom to become the first player to hit seven home runs tonight.
Today’s most popular HR bets
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays (+600)
- Aaron Judge, Yankees (+160)
- Kyle Manzardo, Guardians (+550)
Betting info courtesy of DraftKings
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