Atlanta @ Miami picks

Gabe Vincent has made 45.0% of his 3-pointers over the last 5 games at home, 11.9% more than he's converted from 3-point range over the course of the season while playing at home. Gabe Vincent has attempted 5.2 three-point shots per game this year, placing him in the 83rd percentile among all players in the league. The Miami Heat rank as the 6th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 5 games in terms of attempts from downtown. The matchup vs. Atlanta is a positive one for threes; when the Hawks are the visiting team, opposing starting PGs have averaged the 25th-most treys per game in the league this year (2.4). The Hawks have played at the 4th-speediest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games, which should lead to increased opportunities for the Heat.

Bam Adebayo has accumulated 2.8 personal fouls per game this year, placing him among the most foul-prone players in the league (90th percentile). The matchup vs. Atlanta is a difficult one for 3-pointers; when the Hawks are away from home, the opposing team's starting Cs have posted the 14th-lowest 3-point rate in the NBA this year (23.0%). The Miami Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games. The Miami Heat rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games while on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists). While playing away from home, the Hawks have given up the 9th-most offensive rebounds per game (10.9) in the league to their opposition over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists).

The Atlanta Hawks rank as the 3rd-least aggressive offense in the NBA this year in terms of attempts from beyond the arc. This matchup is a good one for 3-pointers; when the Heat are at home, opposing teams have totaled the 2nd-most shots from behind the three-point arc per game in the league against them this year (13.8). The Heat have played at the most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 25 games, which ought to decrease plays for the Hawks. Bogdan Bogdanovic will not possess the home court advantage in this game. Playing on the road tends to reduces player performance for all stats.

Kyle Lowry has made 43.2% of his three-pointers over the last 10 games, 8.6% higher than he's converted from three over the course of the year. Kyle Lowry has attempted 5.3 threes per game while playing at home this year, ranking in the 84th percentile among all players in the league. Kyle Lowry has been on the court for 30.8 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the league: 82nd percentile. The Miami Heat rank as the 6th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 5 games in terms of attempts from downtown. The matchup vs. the Hawks is a challenging one for 3-pointers; opposing squads have averaged the 7th-least 3-pointers per game in the league this year (11.9).