Phoenix @ Denver picks

The matchup against Denver is a difficult one; when the Nuggets are playing at home, they have given up the 13th-least points per game in the league to the other team's starting SGs this year (14.2). The Phoenix Suns have played at the 8th-slowest pace-of-play in the league away from their home court this year. The Nuggets have played at the 4th-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 25 games, which should decrease plays for the Suns. The Nuggets have given up the 7th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.8) in the league to the other team over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added opportunities for scoring and assists). As a team, the Phoenix Suns have been quite unsuccesful at getting to the free throw line: 6th-worst in the NBA this year, drawing a measly 22.1 foul shot attempts per game.

Nikola Jokic has tallied 4.2 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.6 higher than he's tallied overall this year. The Denver Nuggets have been the least aggressive offense in the NBA this year in terms of 3-point attempts. The matchup vs. Phoenix is a challenging one for field goals; when the Suns are on the road, opposing starting Cs have compiled the 15th-lowest field goal percentage in the league this year (51.4%). The Denver Nuggets have played at the 4th-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 25 games. The Suns have played at the 8th-most sluggish pace in the NBA on the road this year, which ought to reduce possessions for the Nuggets.

Aaron Gordon has successfully made 54.0% of his field goal attempts while on his home court this year, ranking him in the 83rd percentile out of all players in the NBA. The Denver Nuggets check in as the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games while playing at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to additional opportunities for scoring and assists). Aaron Gordon has attempted 4.6 free throws per game this year, a big improvement over his 3.2 rate last year. The matchup vs. the Suns may be a positive one for getting to the free throw line; the opposition's starting PFs have attempted a monstrous 3.8 free throws per game over the last 20 games (25th-most in the NBA). Aaron Gordon will have the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing at home tends to increases player production in all stat categories.