Boston @ Miami picks

Caleb Martin has committed 3.0 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games on his home court, 0.9 higher than he's committed over the course of the season at home. The Miami Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace in the NBA this year. The Celtics have played at the most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games, which should reduce opportunities for the Heat. The Miami Heat check in as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).

The Miami Heat rank as the 8th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 10 games in terms of 3-point attempts. The Celtics have allowed the 4th-least offensive rebounds per game (8.7) in the NBA to opposing squads over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists). Kevin Love will enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing in your home city usually increases player performance across the board.

Al Horford has sunk 2.0 threes per game without the home court advantage this year, putting him in the 87th percentile out of all players in the league. The Boston Celtics rank as the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 10 games when playing on the road. The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the NBA to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).

The Miami Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace in the NBA this year. The Celtics have played at the most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games, which should reduce opportunities for the Heat. The Miami Heat check in as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).

Gabe Vincent has attempted 6.8 treys per game over the last 10 games, 1.5 more than he's attempted overall this year. Gabe Vincent has averaged 32.3 minutes per game over the last 10 games, 6.2 more than he's averaged overall this year. The Miami Heat rank as the 8th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 10 games in terms of 3-point attempts. The matchup against Boston is a favorable one; when the Celtics are the visiting squad, they have allowed the 29th-most points per game in the NBA to the other team's starting PGs over the last 5 games (27.2). The Celtics have allowed the 4th-least offensive rebounds per game (8.7) in the NBA to opposing squads over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).

Derrick White has made 2.7 shots from downtown per game over the last 10 games on the road, 0.8 more than he's converted over the course of the season away from his home court. The Boston Celtics rank as the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 10 games when playing on the road. The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the NBA to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists). Derrick White has made 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 13.4% more than he's put through the net over the course of the season.

The matchup against the Heat is a difficult one for shots from the field; opposing starting PGs have tallied the 12th-least baskets per game in the league this year (5.8). The Boston Celtics have played at the most sluggish pace in the league over the last 10 games. The Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace in the league this year, which ought to reduce plays for the Celtics. The Boston Celtics rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists). The matchup against the Heat is a challenging one for getting to the foul line; the other team's starting PGs have attempted a measly 3.7 free throws per game this year (6th-least in the NBA).