Final OT Nov 21
DET 121 -2.0 o222.0
CHA 123 2.0 u222.0
Final Nov 21
MIN 105 -7.0 o226.0
TOR 110 7.0 u226.0
Final Nov 21
UTA 118 3.0 o224.0
SA 126 -3.0 u224.0
Final Nov 21
ORL 119 5.0 o216.0
LAL 118 -5.0 u216.0
Boston 2nd Eastern Conference57-25
Miami 8th Eastern Conference44-38

Boston @ Miami props

Kaseya Center

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Caleb Martin Points Scored Props • Miami

C. Martin
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
11.5
Points Scored
Projection
8
Best Odds
Under
-110

Caleb Martin has committed 3.0 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games on his home court, 0.9 higher than he's committed over the course of the season at home. The Miami Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace in the NBA this year. The Celtics have played at the most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games, which should reduce opportunities for the Heat. The Miami Heat check in as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).

Caleb Martin

Prop: 11.5 Points Scored
Projection: 8
Prop:
11.5 Points Scored
Projection:
8

Caleb Martin has committed 3.0 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games on his home court, 0.9 higher than he's committed over the course of the season at home. The Miami Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace in the NBA this year. The Celtics have played at the most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games, which should reduce opportunities for the Heat. The Miami Heat check in as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).

Kevin Love Points Scored Props • Miami

K. Love
power forward PF • Miami
Prop
5.5
Points Scored
Projection
7.2
Best Odds
Over
-104
Prop
5.5 Points Scored
Projection
7.2
Best Odds
Over
-104
Projection Rating

The Miami Heat rank as the 8th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 10 games in terms of 3-point attempts. The Celtics have allowed the 4th-least offensive rebounds per game (8.7) in the NBA to opposing squads over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists). Kevin Love will enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing in your home city usually increases player performance across the board.

Kevin Love

Prop: 5.5 Points Scored
Projection: 7.2
Prop:
5.5 Points Scored
Projection:
7.2

The Miami Heat rank as the 8th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 10 games in terms of 3-point attempts. The Celtics have allowed the 4th-least offensive rebounds per game (8.7) in the NBA to opposing squads over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists). Kevin Love will enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing in your home city usually increases player performance across the board.

Al Horford Points Scored Props • Boston

A. Horford
center C • Boston
Prop
6.5
Points Scored
Projection
8
Best Odds
Over
+100
Prop
6.5 Points Scored
Projection
8
Best Odds
Over
+100
Projection Rating

Al Horford has sunk 2.0 threes per game without the home court advantage this year, putting him in the 87th percentile out of all players in the league. The Boston Celtics rank as the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 10 games when playing on the road. The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the NBA to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).

Al Horford

Prop: 6.5 Points Scored
Projection: 8
Prop:
6.5 Points Scored
Projection:
8

Al Horford has sunk 2.0 threes per game without the home court advantage this year, putting him in the 87th percentile out of all players in the league. The Boston Celtics rank as the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 10 games when playing on the road. The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the NBA to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).

Max Strus Points Scored Props • Miami

M. Strus
point guard PG • Miami
Prop
11.5
Points Scored
Projection
10.4
Best Odds
Under
+105
Prop
11.5 Points Scored
Projection
10.4
Best Odds
Under
+105
Projection Rating

The Miami Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace in the NBA this year. The Celtics have played at the most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games, which should reduce opportunities for the Heat. The Miami Heat check in as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).

Max Strus

Prop: 11.5 Points Scored
Projection: 10.4
Prop:
11.5 Points Scored
Projection:
10.4

The Miami Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace in the NBA this year. The Celtics have played at the most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games, which should reduce opportunities for the Heat. The Miami Heat check in as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).

Gabe Vincent Points Scored Props • Miami

G. Vincent
shooting guard SG • Miami
Prop
10.5
Points Scored
Projection
12.4
Best Odds
Over
-109
Prop
10.5 Points Scored
Projection
12.4
Best Odds
Over
-109
Projection Rating

Gabe Vincent has attempted 6.8 treys per game over the last 10 games, 1.5 more than he's attempted overall this year. Gabe Vincent has averaged 32.3 minutes per game over the last 10 games, 6.2 more than he's averaged overall this year. The Miami Heat rank as the 8th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 10 games in terms of 3-point attempts. The matchup against Boston is a favorable one; when the Celtics are the visiting squad, they have allowed the 29th-most points per game in the NBA to the other team's starting PGs over the last 5 games (27.2). The Celtics have allowed the 4th-least offensive rebounds per game (8.7) in the NBA to opposing squads over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).

Gabe Vincent

Prop: 10.5 Points Scored
Projection: 12.4
Prop:
10.5 Points Scored
Projection:
12.4

Gabe Vincent has attempted 6.8 treys per game over the last 10 games, 1.5 more than he's attempted overall this year. Gabe Vincent has averaged 32.3 minutes per game over the last 10 games, 6.2 more than he's averaged overall this year. The Miami Heat rank as the 8th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 10 games in terms of 3-point attempts. The matchup against Boston is a favorable one; when the Celtics are the visiting squad, they have allowed the 29th-most points per game in the NBA to the other team's starting PGs over the last 5 games (27.2). The Celtics have allowed the 4th-least offensive rebounds per game (8.7) in the NBA to opposing squads over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).

Derrick White Points Scored Props • Boston

D. White
point guard PG • Boston
Prop
10.5
Points Scored
Projection
12.1
Best Odds
Over
-103
Prop
10.5 Points Scored
Projection
12.1
Best Odds
Over
-103
Projection Rating

Derrick White has made 2.7 shots from downtown per game over the last 10 games on the road, 0.8 more than he's converted over the course of the season away from his home court. The Boston Celtics rank as the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 10 games when playing on the road. The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the NBA to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists). Derrick White has made 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 13.4% more than he's put through the net over the course of the season.

Derrick White

Prop: 10.5 Points Scored
Projection: 12.1
Prop:
10.5 Points Scored
Projection:
12.1

Derrick White has made 2.7 shots from downtown per game over the last 10 games on the road, 0.8 more than he's converted over the course of the season away from his home court. The Boston Celtics rank as the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 10 games when playing on the road. The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the NBA to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists). Derrick White has made 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 13.4% more than he's put through the net over the course of the season.

Marcus Smart Points Scored Props • Boston

M. Smart
point guard PG • Boston
Prop
12.5
Points Scored
Projection
11.4
Best Odds
Under
-104
Prop
12.5 Points Scored
Projection
11.4
Best Odds
Under
-104
Projection Rating

The matchup against the Heat is a difficult one for shots from the field; opposing starting PGs have tallied the 12th-least baskets per game in the league this year (5.8). The Boston Celtics have played at the most sluggish pace in the league over the last 10 games. The Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace in the league this year, which ought to reduce plays for the Celtics. The Boston Celtics rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists). The matchup against the Heat is a challenging one for getting to the foul line; the other team's starting PGs have attempted a measly 3.7 free throws per game this year (6th-least in the NBA).

Marcus Smart

Prop: 12.5 Points Scored
Projection: 11.4
Prop:
12.5 Points Scored
Projection:
11.4

The matchup against the Heat is a difficult one for shots from the field; opposing starting PGs have tallied the 12th-least baskets per game in the league this year (5.8). The Boston Celtics have played at the most sluggish pace in the league over the last 10 games. The Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace in the league this year, which ought to reduce plays for the Celtics. The Boston Celtics rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists). The matchup against the Heat is a challenging one for getting to the foul line; the other team's starting PGs have attempted a measly 3.7 free throws per game this year (6th-least in the NBA).

Jimmy Butler Points Scored Props • Miami

J. Butler
power forward PF • Miami
Prop
28.5
Points Scored
Projection
30.5
Best Odds
Over
-115
Prop
28.5 Points Scored
Projection
30.5
Best Odds
Over
-115
Projection Rating

Jimmy Butler has posted 30.5 points per game over the last 10 games at home, 5.2 more than he's posted over the course of the season at home. Jimmy Butler has sunk a whopping 53.6% of his shots from the field this year, quite a bit higher than his 47.9 rate last year. Jimmy Butler has been on the court for 41.4 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 7.4 more than he's been on the court for over the course of the year. The Miami Heat rank as the 8th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 10 games in terms of 3-point attempts. The Celtics have allowed the 4th-least offensive rebounds per game (8.7) in the NBA to opposing squads over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).

Jimmy Butler

Prop: 28.5 Points Scored
Projection: 30.5
Prop:
28.5 Points Scored
Projection:
30.5

Jimmy Butler has posted 30.5 points per game over the last 10 games at home, 5.2 more than he's posted over the course of the season at home. Jimmy Butler has sunk a whopping 53.6% of his shots from the field this year, quite a bit higher than his 47.9 rate last year. Jimmy Butler has been on the court for 41.4 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 7.4 more than he's been on the court for over the course of the year. The Miami Heat rank as the 8th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 10 games in terms of 3-point attempts. The Celtics have allowed the 4th-least offensive rebounds per game (8.7) in the NBA to opposing squads over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).

Malcolm Brogdon Points Scored Props • Boston

M. Brogdon
shooting guard SG • Boston
Prop
14.5
Points Scored
Projection
13.5
Best Odds
Under
-115
Prop
14.5 Points Scored
Projection
13.5
Best Odds
Under
-115
Projection Rating

The matchup against the Heat is a difficult one for shots from the field; opposing starting PGs have tallied the 12th-least baskets per game in the league this year (5.8). The Boston Celtics have played at the most sluggish pace in the league over the last 10 games. The Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace in the league this year, which ought to reduce plays for the Celtics. The Boston Celtics rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists). Malcolm Brogdon has attempted a mere 2.7 foul shots per game this year, quite a bit less than his 4.6 rate last year.

Malcolm Brogdon

Prop: 14.5 Points Scored
Projection: 13.5
Prop:
14.5 Points Scored
Projection:
13.5

The matchup against the Heat is a difficult one for shots from the field; opposing starting PGs have tallied the 12th-least baskets per game in the league this year (5.8). The Boston Celtics have played at the most sluggish pace in the league over the last 10 games. The Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace in the league this year, which ought to reduce plays for the Celtics. The Boston Celtics rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists). Malcolm Brogdon has attempted a mere 2.7 foul shots per game this year, quite a bit less than his 4.6 rate last year.

Jayson Tatum Points Scored Props • Boston

J. Tatum
small forward SF • Boston
Prop
30.5
Points Scored
Projection
29.5
Best Odds
Under
-109
Prop
30.5 Points Scored
Projection
29.5
Best Odds
Under
-109
Projection Rating

Jayson Tatum has tallied 0.1 technical fouls per game this year, making him one of the most foul-prone players in the NBA when it comes to technicals (96th percentile). The Boston Celtics have played at the most sluggish pace in the league over the last 10 games. The Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace in the league this year, which ought to reduce plays for the Celtics. The Boston Celtics rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists). The matchup vs. the Heat is a tough one for getting to the foul line; the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted just 3.2 free throws per game this year (6th-least in the NBA).

Jayson Tatum

Prop: 30.5 Points Scored
Projection: 29.5
Prop:
30.5 Points Scored
Projection:
29.5

Jayson Tatum has tallied 0.1 technical fouls per game this year, making him one of the most foul-prone players in the NBA when it comes to technicals (96th percentile). The Boston Celtics have played at the most sluggish pace in the league over the last 10 games. The Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace in the league this year, which ought to reduce plays for the Celtics. The Boston Celtics rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists). The matchup vs. the Heat is a tough one for getting to the foul line; the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted just 3.2 free throws per game this year (6th-least in the NBA).

Bam Adebayo Points Scored Props • Miami

B. Adebayo
center C • Miami
Prop
18.5
Points Scored
Projection
18.4
Best Odds
Under
+100
Prop
18.5 Points Scored
Projection
18.4
Best Odds
Under
+100
Projection Rating

Bam Adebayo has successfully made 7.7% of his three-point shots this year, ranking him in the 6th percentile out of all players in the NBA. Bam Adebayo has been called for 3.7 personal fouls per game over the last 10 games, 0.8 higher than he's been called for overall this season. The Miami Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace in the NBA this year. The Celtics have played at the most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games, which should reduce opportunities for the Heat. The Miami Heat check in as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).

Bam Adebayo

Prop: 18.5 Points Scored
Projection: 18.4
Prop:
18.5 Points Scored
Projection:
18.4

Bam Adebayo has successfully made 7.7% of his three-point shots this year, ranking him in the 6th percentile out of all players in the NBA. Bam Adebayo has been called for 3.7 personal fouls per game over the last 10 games, 0.8 higher than he's been called for overall this season. The Miami Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace in the NBA this year. The Celtics have played at the most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games, which should reduce opportunities for the Heat. The Miami Heat check in as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).

Kyle Lowry Points Scored Props • Miami

K. Lowry
point guard PG • Miami
Prop
9.5
Points Scored
Projection
9.5
Best Odds
Over
-106
Prop
9.5 Points Scored
Projection
9.5
Best Odds
Over
-106
Projection Rating

Kyle Lowry has sunk 54.1% of his shots from the field over the last 5 games at home, 11.5% more than he's put through the net in all games this year playing at home. Kyle Lowry has played 29.4 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the league: 78th percentile. The Miami Heat rank as the 8th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 10 games in terms of 3-point attempts. The matchup against Boston is a favorable one; when the Celtics are the visiting squad, they have allowed the 29th-most points per game in the NBA to the other team's starting PGs over the last 5 games (27.2). The Celtics have allowed the 4th-least offensive rebounds per game (8.7) in the NBA to opposing squads over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).

Kyle Lowry

Prop: 9.5 Points Scored
Projection: 9.5
Prop:
9.5 Points Scored
Projection:
9.5

Kyle Lowry has sunk 54.1% of his shots from the field over the last 5 games at home, 11.5% more than he's put through the net in all games this year playing at home. Kyle Lowry has played 29.4 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the league: 78th percentile. The Miami Heat rank as the 8th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 10 games in terms of 3-point attempts. The matchup against Boston is a favorable one; when the Celtics are the visiting squad, they have allowed the 29th-most points per game in the NBA to the other team's starting PGs over the last 5 games (27.2). The Celtics have allowed the 4th-least offensive rebounds per game (8.7) in the NBA to opposing squads over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).

Jaylen Brown Points Scored Props • Boston

J. Brown
shooting guard SG • Boston
Prop
23.5
Points Scored
Projection
23.7
Best Odds
Over
-122
Prop
23.5 Points Scored
Projection
23.7
Best Odds
Over
-122
Projection Rating

Jaylen Brown has attempted 20.2 field goals per game this year, ranking in the 98th percentile out of all players in the NBA. Jaylen Brown has attempted 7.0 threes per game this year, placing him in the 93rd percentile out of all players in the NBA. Jaylen Brown has played 35.8 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA: 98th percentile. The Boston Celtics rank as the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 10 games when playing on the road. The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the NBA to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).

Jaylen Brown

Prop: 23.5 Points Scored
Projection: 23.7
Prop:
23.5 Points Scored
Projection:
23.7

Jaylen Brown has attempted 20.2 field goals per game this year, ranking in the 98th percentile out of all players in the NBA. Jaylen Brown has attempted 7.0 threes per game this year, placing him in the 93rd percentile out of all players in the NBA. Jaylen Brown has played 35.8 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA: 98th percentile. The Boston Celtics rank as the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 10 games when playing on the road. The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the NBA to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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