Final Nov 23
NY 106 -8.5 o234.0
UTA 121 8.5 u234.0
Final Nov 23
DET 100 9.0 o207.5
ORL 111 -9.0 u207.5
Final Nov 23
CHA 119 8.0 o224.0
MIL 125 -8.0 u224.0
Final Nov 23
MEM 142 -4.0 o244.0
CHI 131 4.0 u244.0
Final Nov 23
POR 104 11.5 o226.5
HOU 98 -11.5 u226.5
Final Nov 23
GS 94 -3.5 o229.0
SA 104 3.5 u229.0
Final Nov 23
DEN 127 4.0 o236.0
LAL 102 -4.0 u236.0
Boston 2nd Eastern Conference57-25
Miami 8th Eastern Conference44-38
TNT, TSN

Boston @ Miami props

Kaseya Center

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Grant Williams Points Scored Props • Boston

G. Williams
power forward PF • Boston
Prop
4.5
Points Scored
Projection
2.4
Best Odds
Under
-115
Prop
4.5 Points Scored
Projection
2.4
Best Odds
Under
-115
Projection Rating

This matchup is a favorable one for 3-pointers; when the Heat are at home, opposing teams have averaged the 2nd-most shots from downtown per game in the league against them this year (13.3). The Boston Celtics have played at the most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games. The Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace in the NBA this year, which ought to lead to decreased plays for the Celtics. As a team, the Boston Celtics have been poor at getting to the foul line away from home: worst in the league this year, tallying a measly 20.0 free throws per game.

Grant Williams

Prop: 4.5 Points Scored
Projection: 2.4
Prop:
4.5 Points Scored
Projection:
2.4

This matchup is a favorable one for 3-pointers; when the Heat are at home, opposing teams have averaged the 2nd-most shots from downtown per game in the league against them this year (13.3). The Boston Celtics have played at the most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games. The Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace in the NBA this year, which ought to lead to decreased plays for the Celtics. As a team, the Boston Celtics have been poor at getting to the foul line away from home: worst in the league this year, tallying a measly 20.0 free throws per game.

Caleb Martin Points Scored Props • Miami

C. Martin
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
12.5
Points Scored
Projection
8.2
Best Odds
Under
-124
Prop
12.5 Points Scored
Projection
8.2
Best Odds
Under
-124
Projection Rating

Caleb Martin has committed 0.2 technical fouls per game over the last 5 games while at home, 0.2 more than he's committed in all games this season at home. The Miami Heat have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the league this year. The Celtics have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the Heat. The Miami Heat have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists). The matchup against the Celtics is a hard one for drawing fouls; the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted a lowly 2.6 foul shots per game this year (9th-least in the NBA).

Caleb Martin

Prop: 12.5 Points Scored
Projection: 8.2
Prop:
12.5 Points Scored
Projection:
8.2

Caleb Martin has committed 0.2 technical fouls per game over the last 5 games while at home, 0.2 more than he's committed in all games this season at home. The Miami Heat have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the league this year. The Celtics have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the Heat. The Miami Heat have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists). The matchup against the Celtics is a hard one for drawing fouls; the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted a lowly 2.6 foul shots per game this year (9th-least in the NBA).

Kevin Love Points Scored Props • Miami

K. Love
power forward PF • Miami
Prop
5.5
Points Scored
Projection
7.5
Best Odds
Over
-106
Prop
5.5 Points Scored
Projection
7.5
Best Odds
Over
-106
Projection Rating

The Miami Heat have been the 8th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 10 games as it relates to attempts from downtown. The Celtics have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (7.6) in the NBA to the other team over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists). Kevin Love will have the home court advantage in this contest. Playing on your home court generally boosts player production in all stat categories.

Kevin Love

Prop: 5.5 Points Scored
Projection: 7.5
Prop:
5.5 Points Scored
Projection:
7.5

The Miami Heat have been the 8th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 10 games as it relates to attempts from downtown. The Celtics have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (7.6) in the NBA to the other team over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists). Kevin Love will have the home court advantage in this contest. Playing on your home court generally boosts player production in all stat categories.

Jimmy Butler Points Scored Props • Miami

J. Butler
power forward PF • Miami
Prop
27.5
Points Scored
Projection
31.2
Best Odds
Over
-112
Prop
27.5 Points Scored
Projection
31.2
Best Odds
Over
-112
Projection Rating

Jimmy Butler has converted an impressive 53.4% of his field goal attempts this year, significantly higher than his 47.9 mark last year. Jimmy Butler has been on the court for 40.2 minutes per game over the last 10 games, 6.2 higher than he's been on the court for over the course of the year. The Miami Heat have been the 8th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 10 games as it relates to attempts from downtown. The Celtics have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (7.6) in the NBA to the other team over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists). Jimmy Butler has sunk 8.4 free throws per game over the last 10 games, 1.0 more than he's made in all games this year.

Jimmy Butler

Prop: 27.5 Points Scored
Projection: 31.2
Prop:
27.5 Points Scored
Projection:
31.2

Jimmy Butler has converted an impressive 53.4% of his field goal attempts this year, significantly higher than his 47.9 mark last year. Jimmy Butler has been on the court for 40.2 minutes per game over the last 10 games, 6.2 higher than he's been on the court for over the course of the year. The Miami Heat have been the 8th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 10 games as it relates to attempts from downtown. The Celtics have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (7.6) in the NBA to the other team over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists). Jimmy Butler has sunk 8.4 free throws per game over the last 10 games, 1.0 more than he's made in all games this year.

Marcus Smart Points Scored Props • Boston

M. Smart
point guard PG • Boston
Prop
12.5
Points Scored
Projection
11.1
Best Odds
Under
+100
Prop
12.5 Points Scored
Projection
11.1
Best Odds
Under
+100
Projection Rating

Marcus Smart has accumulated 2.7 personal fouls per game away from home this year, ranking him in the 87th percentile -- among the NBA's most-whistled. The matchup against the Heat is a hard one; they have allowed the 12th-least points per game in the NBA to the opposing team's starting PGs this year (16.6). The Boston Celtics have played at the most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games. The Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace in the NBA this year, which ought to lead to decreased plays for the Celtics. As a team, the Boston Celtics have been poor at getting to the foul line away from home: worst in the league this year, tallying a measly 20.0 free throws per game.

Marcus Smart

Prop: 12.5 Points Scored
Projection: 11.1
Prop:
12.5 Points Scored
Projection:
11.1

Marcus Smart has accumulated 2.7 personal fouls per game away from home this year, ranking him in the 87th percentile -- among the NBA's most-whistled. The matchup against the Heat is a hard one; they have allowed the 12th-least points per game in the NBA to the opposing team's starting PGs this year (16.6). The Boston Celtics have played at the most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games. The Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace in the NBA this year, which ought to lead to decreased plays for the Celtics. As a team, the Boston Celtics have been poor at getting to the foul line away from home: worst in the league this year, tallying a measly 20.0 free throws per game.

Max Strus Points Scored Props • Miami

M. Strus
point guard PG • Miami
Prop
11.5
Points Scored
Projection
10.7
Best Odds
Under
-110
Prop
11.5 Points Scored
Projection
10.7
Best Odds
Under
-110
Projection Rating

Max Strus has averaged 0.2 technical fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.2 higher than he's averaged in all games this season. The Miami Heat have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the league this year. The Celtics have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the Heat. The Miami Heat have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists). The matchup against Boston may be a tough one for getting to the foul line; opposing starting SGs have attempted a measly 1.8 free throws per game over the last 10 games when the Celtics are away from home (15th-least in the NBA).

Max Strus

Prop: 11.5 Points Scored
Projection: 10.7
Prop:
11.5 Points Scored
Projection:
10.7

Max Strus has averaged 0.2 technical fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.2 higher than he's averaged in all games this season. The Miami Heat have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the league this year. The Celtics have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the Heat. The Miami Heat have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists). The matchup against Boston may be a tough one for getting to the foul line; opposing starting SGs have attempted a measly 1.8 free throws per game over the last 10 games when the Celtics are away from home (15th-least in the NBA).

Derrick White Points Scored Props • Boston

D. White
point guard PG • Boston
Prop
10.5
Points Scored
Projection
9.8
Best Odds
Under
-108
Prop
10.5 Points Scored
Projection
9.8
Best Odds
Under
-108
Projection Rating

The matchup against Miami is a hard one; when the Heat are on their home court, they have allowed the 13th-least points per game in the league to the opposing team's starting SGs this year (14.8). The Boston Celtics have played at the most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games. The Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace in the NBA this year, which ought to lead to decreased plays for the Celtics. As a team, the Boston Celtics have been poor at getting to the foul line away from home: worst in the league this year, tallying a measly 20.0 free throws per game. The matchup vs. the Heat is a challenging one for getting to the foul line; the opposition's starting SGs have attempted a mere 2.6 free throws per game this year (10th-least in the league).

Derrick White

Prop: 10.5 Points Scored
Projection: 9.8
Prop:
10.5 Points Scored
Projection:
9.8

The matchup against Miami is a hard one; when the Heat are on their home court, they have allowed the 13th-least points per game in the league to the opposing team's starting SGs this year (14.8). The Boston Celtics have played at the most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games. The Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace in the NBA this year, which ought to lead to decreased plays for the Celtics. As a team, the Boston Celtics have been poor at getting to the foul line away from home: worst in the league this year, tallying a measly 20.0 free throws per game. The matchup vs. the Heat is a challenging one for getting to the foul line; the opposition's starting SGs have attempted a mere 2.6 free throws per game this year (10th-least in the league).

Malcolm Brogdon Points Scored Props • Boston

M. Brogdon
shooting guard SG • Boston
Prop
12.5
Points Scored
Projection
13.5
Best Odds
Over
-106
Prop
12.5 Points Scored
Projection
13.5
Best Odds
Over
-106
Projection Rating

Malcolm Brogdon has made a whopping 42.1% of his attempts from beyond the arc this season, significantly higher than his 29.6 rate last season. The Boston Celtics have been the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games without the home court advantage (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to additional opportunities for scoring and assists). The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.3) in the league to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

Malcolm Brogdon

Prop: 12.5 Points Scored
Projection: 13.5
Prop:
12.5 Points Scored
Projection:
13.5

Malcolm Brogdon has made a whopping 42.1% of his attempts from beyond the arc this season, significantly higher than his 29.6 rate last season. The Boston Celtics have been the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games without the home court advantage (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to additional opportunities for scoring and assists). The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.3) in the league to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

Kyle Lowry Points Scored Props • Miami

K. Lowry
point guard PG • Miami
Prop
8.5
Points Scored
Projection
9.6
Best Odds
Over
-118
Prop
8.5 Points Scored
Projection
9.6
Best Odds
Over
-118
Projection Rating

Kyle Lowry has sunk 54.1% of his field goal attempts over the last 5 games at home, 11.3% more than he's converted overall this season while playing at home. Kyle Lowry has been on the court for 29.4 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA: 78th percentile. The Miami Heat have been the 8th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 10 games as it relates to attempts from downtown. The Celtics have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (7.6) in the NBA to the other team over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists). Kyle Lowry has sunk 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 5 games, 12.0% higher than he's made in all games this year.

Kyle Lowry

Prop: 8.5 Points Scored
Projection: 9.6
Prop:
8.5 Points Scored
Projection:
9.6

Kyle Lowry has sunk 54.1% of his field goal attempts over the last 5 games at home, 11.3% more than he's converted overall this season while playing at home. Kyle Lowry has been on the court for 29.4 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA: 78th percentile. The Miami Heat have been the 8th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 10 games as it relates to attempts from downtown. The Celtics have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (7.6) in the NBA to the other team over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists). Kyle Lowry has sunk 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 5 games, 12.0% higher than he's made in all games this year.

Al Horford Points Scored Props • Boston

A. Horford
center C • Boston
Prop
6.5
Points Scored
Projection
7.6
Best Odds
Over
-130
Prop
6.5 Points Scored
Projection
7.6
Best Odds
Over
-130
Projection Rating

Al Horford has played 30.1 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the NBA: 80th percentile. The Boston Celtics have been the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games without the home court advantage (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to additional opportunities for scoring and assists). The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.3) in the league to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists). Al Horford has converted 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 10 games, 25.6% higher than he's sunk in all games this year.

Al Horford

Prop: 6.5 Points Scored
Projection: 7.6
Prop:
6.5 Points Scored
Projection:
7.6

Al Horford has played 30.1 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the NBA: 80th percentile. The Boston Celtics have been the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games without the home court advantage (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to additional opportunities for scoring and assists). The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.3) in the league to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists). Al Horford has converted 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 10 games, 25.6% higher than he's sunk in all games this year.

Gabe Vincent Points Scored Props • Miami

G. Vincent
shooting guard SG • Miami
Prop
11.5
Points Scored
Projection
12.8
Best Odds
Over
-130
Prop
11.5 Points Scored
Projection
12.8
Best Odds
Over
-130
Projection Rating

Gabe Vincent has attempted 7.1 3-point shots per game over the last 10 games, 1.7 more than he's attempted over the course of the season. Gabe Vincent has been on the court for 33.0 minutes per game over the last 10 games, 6.8 more than he's been on the court for in all games this season. The Miami Heat have been the 8th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 10 games as it relates to attempts from downtown. The Celtics have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (7.6) in the NBA to the other team over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists). Gabe Vincent has sunk 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 5 games, 16.8% higher than he's put through the net overall this season.

Gabe Vincent

Prop: 11.5 Points Scored
Projection: 12.8
Prop:
11.5 Points Scored
Projection:
12.8

Gabe Vincent has attempted 7.1 3-point shots per game over the last 10 games, 1.7 more than he's attempted over the course of the season. Gabe Vincent has been on the court for 33.0 minutes per game over the last 10 games, 6.8 more than he's been on the court for in all games this season. The Miami Heat have been the 8th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 10 games as it relates to attempts from downtown. The Celtics have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (7.6) in the NBA to the other team over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists). Gabe Vincent has sunk 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 5 games, 16.8% higher than he's put through the net overall this season.

Bam Adebayo Points Scored Props • Miami

B. Adebayo
center C • Miami
Prop
17.5
Points Scored
Projection
18.7
Best Odds
Over
-140
Prop
17.5 Points Scored
Projection
18.7
Best Odds
Over
-140
Projection Rating

Bam Adebayo has attempted 14.7 field goals per game this season, significantly higher than his 12.2 rate last season. Bam Adebayo has played 33.9 minutes per game while on his home court this year, putting him in the 91st percentile -- ranking among the most used players in the league. The Miami Heat have been the 8th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 10 games as it relates to attempts from downtown. The matchup vs. Boston is a favorable one; when the Celtics are the visiting team, they have given up the 30th-most points per game in the league to opposing starting Cs this year (16.4). The Celtics have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (7.6) in the NBA to the other team over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

Bam Adebayo

Prop: 17.5 Points Scored
Projection: 18.7
Prop:
17.5 Points Scored
Projection:
18.7

Bam Adebayo has attempted 14.7 field goals per game this season, significantly higher than his 12.2 rate last season. Bam Adebayo has played 33.9 minutes per game while on his home court this year, putting him in the 91st percentile -- ranking among the most used players in the league. The Miami Heat have been the 8th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 10 games as it relates to attempts from downtown. The matchup vs. Boston is a favorable one; when the Celtics are the visiting team, they have given up the 30th-most points per game in the league to opposing starting Cs this year (16.4). The Celtics have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (7.6) in the NBA to the other team over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

Jaylen Brown Points Scored Props • Boston

J. Brown
shooting guard SG • Boston
Prop
23.5
Points Scored
Projection
23.7
Best Odds
Over
-118
Prop
23.5 Points Scored
Projection
23.7
Best Odds
Over
-118
Projection Rating

Jaylen Brown has attempted 20.2 shots from the field per game this year, quite a bit higher than his 18.2 rate last year. Jaylen Brown has attempted 7.0 shots from behind the three-point arc per game this year, putting him in the 93rd percentile out of all players in the NBA. Jaylen Brown has been on the court for 35.7 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-utilized players in the league: 97th percentile. The Boston Celtics have been the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games without the home court advantage (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to additional opportunities for scoring and assists). The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.3) in the league to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

Jaylen Brown

Prop: 23.5 Points Scored
Projection: 23.7
Prop:
23.5 Points Scored
Projection:
23.7

Jaylen Brown has attempted 20.2 shots from the field per game this year, quite a bit higher than his 18.2 rate last year. Jaylen Brown has attempted 7.0 shots from behind the three-point arc per game this year, putting him in the 93rd percentile out of all players in the NBA. Jaylen Brown has been on the court for 35.7 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-utilized players in the league: 97th percentile. The Boston Celtics have been the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games without the home court advantage (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to additional opportunities for scoring and assists). The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.3) in the league to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

Jayson Tatum Points Scored Props • Boston

J. Tatum
small forward SF • Boston
Prop
28.5
Points Scored
Projection
29.4
Best Odds
Over
-161
Prop
28.5 Points Scored
Projection
29.4
Best Odds
Over
-161
Projection Rating

Jayson Tatum has attempted 20.7 shots per game when playing away from home this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile out of all players in the league. Jayson Tatum has been on the court for 36.8 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-used players in the NBA: 100th percentile. The matchup vs. the Heat is a strong one; they have allowed the 30th-most points per game in the NBA to the opposition's starting SFs this year (17.8). The Boston Celtics have been the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games without the home court advantage (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to additional opportunities for scoring and assists). The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.3) in the league to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

Jayson Tatum

Prop: 28.5 Points Scored
Projection: 29.4
Prop:
28.5 Points Scored
Projection:
29.4

Jayson Tatum has attempted 20.7 shots per game when playing away from home this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile out of all players in the league. Jayson Tatum has been on the court for 36.8 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-used players in the NBA: 100th percentile. The matchup vs. the Heat is a strong one; they have allowed the 30th-most points per game in the NBA to the opposition's starting SFs this year (17.8). The Boston Celtics have been the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games without the home court advantage (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to additional opportunities for scoring and assists). The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.3) in the league to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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