Miami @ Boston picks

Kevin Love has made 79.2% of his attempts from downtown over the last 5 games, 47.1% higher than he's made from downtown over the course of the season. The Miami Heat have been the 6th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 20 games while playing away from home as it relates to attempts from downtown. The matchup against Boston is a good one for threes; when the Celtics are playing at home, the opposition's starting PFs have totaled the 23rd-most 3-point shots per game in the NBA this year (1.7). The Celtics have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (8.5) in the NBA to opposing teams over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists).

Malcolm Brogdon has sunk a whopping 41.6% of his three-pointers this season, quite a bit higher than his 29.6 mark last season. The Boston Celtics have been the 4th-highest scoring offense in the NBA this year. When playing on the road, the Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the NBA to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists). Malcolm Brogdon has converted 2.3 foul shots per game this year, ranking in the 79th percentile out of all players in the NBA. Malcolm Brogdon will have the home court advantage in this game. Playing with the home court advantage generally boosts player production in all stat categories.

The Miami Heat have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the league over the last 15 games when playing on the road. The Celtics have played at the 3rd-slowest pace in the NBA over the last 10 games, which ought to reduce opportunities for the Heat. The Miami Heat rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists). Caleb Martin will not enjoy the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing while traveling usually reduces player performance in all facets of the game.

The Boston Celtics have played at the 3rd-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games. The Heat have played at the most lethargic pace in the league over the last 15 games away from their home city, which ought to decrease opportunities for the Celtics. The Boston Celtics check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games while at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

Malcolm Brogdon has averaged 3.4 assists per game this year at home, putting him among the NBA's leaders by this standard over this stretch of games: 80th percentile. When playing on the road, the Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the NBA to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists). Malcolm Brogdon will have the home court advantage in this game. Playing with the home court advantage generally boosts player production in all stat categories.

When playing on the road, the Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the NBA to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists). Grant Williams will possess the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing in your home city generally raises player production across the board.

When playing on the road, the Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the NBA to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists). Grant Williams will possess the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing in your home city generally raises player production across the board.

The Celtics have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (8.5) in the NBA to opposing teams over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists).

Max Strus has committed 0.2 technical fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.2 higher than he's committed overall this season. The Miami Heat have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the league over the last 15 games when playing on the road. The Celtics have played at the 3rd-slowest pace in the NBA over the last 10 games, which ought to reduce opportunities for the Heat. The Miami Heat rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists). Max Strus will not enjoy the home court advantage in this contest. Playing on the road tends to decreases stat production across the board.

Jimmy Butler has averaged 29.9 points per game over the last 15 games, 5.7 more than he's averaged over the course of the season. Jimmy Butler has attempted 3.2 shots from behind the three-point arc per game over the last 15 games, 1.3 more than he's attempted over the course of the season. Jimmy Butler has averaged 42.8 minutes per game over the last 5 games away from home, 8.6 higher than he's averaged in all games this season on the road. The Miami Heat have been the 6th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 20 games while playing away from home as it relates to attempts from downtown. The matchup against Boston is a good one for threes; when the Celtics are playing at home, the opposition's starting PFs have totaled the 23rd-most 3-point shots per game in the NBA this year (1.7).