Miami @ Denver picks

The matchup against Denver is a challenging one; when the Nuggets are on their home court, they have allowed the 6th-least points per game in the league to the other team's starting PFs this year (14.0). The Miami Heat have played at the most sluggish pace in the NBA over the last 25 games without the home court advantage. The Nuggets have played at the 5th-most sluggish pace in the NBA over the last 20 games at home, which ought to reduce possessions for the Heat. The Miami Heat check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games away from their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists). Caleb Martin will not hold the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home stadium generally decreases player production across the board.

Aaron Gordon has made 53.8% of his field goals while playing at home this year, putting him in the 83rd percentile out of all players in the NBA. Aaron Gordon has played 36.5 minutes per game over the last 10 games, 5.9 higher than he's played over the course of the season. The Denver Nuggets have been the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games while on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to new chances for scoring and assists). Away from their home court, the Heat have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (9.3) in the NBA to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists). The matchup against the Heat may be a positive one for getting to the free throw line; opposing starting PFs have attempted an enormous 4.6 foul shots per game over the last 15 games (29th-most in the league).

Jeff Green has sunk 50.0% of his three-pointers over the last 5 games, 23.0% higher than he's converted from downtown in all games this season. The Denver Nuggets have been the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games while on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to new chances for scoring and assists). Away from their home court, the Heat have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (9.3) in the NBA to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists). Jeff Green has sunk 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 27.4% higher than he's put through the hoop in all games this season. The matchup against the Heat may be a positive one for getting to the free throw line; opposing starting PFs have attempted an enormous 4.6 foul shots per game over the last 15 games (29th-most in the league).

Nikola Jokic has committed 4.0 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.3 more than he's committed overall this year. The Denver Nuggets rank as the least aggressive offense in the NBA this year as it relates to attempts from beyond the arc. The matchup against the Heat is a hard one; they have given up the 11th-least points per game in the league to the opposition's starting Cs this year (11.7). The Denver Nuggets have played at the 5th-most lethargic pace in the NBA over the last 20 games while at home. The Heat have played at the most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 25 games while traveling, which should decrease opportunities for the Nuggets.

The Denver Nuggets have been the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games while on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to new chances for scoring and assists). Away from their home court, the Heat have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (9.3) in the NBA to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists). Jeff Green will enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing in your home city usually improves player performance in all stat categories.

The Miami Heat have played at the most sluggish pace in the NBA over the last 25 games without the home court advantage. The Nuggets have played at the 5th-most sluggish pace in the NBA over the last 20 games at home, which ought to reduce possessions for the Heat. The Miami Heat check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games away from their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists). Caleb Martin will not hold the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home stadium generally decreases player production across the board.

Kyle Lowry has played 29.2 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA: 77th percentile. The Nuggets have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (7.9) in the NBA to their opposition over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Jamal Murray has committed 0.2 technical fouls per game over the last 5 games on his home court, 0.1 more than he's committed in all games this season at home. The Denver Nuggets rank as the least aggressive offense in the NBA this year as it relates to attempts from beyond the arc. The matchup against Miami is a tough one; when the Heat are the visiting team, they have given up the 11th-least points per game in the NBA to the opposition's starting PGs this year (16.0). The Denver Nuggets have played at the 5th-most lethargic pace in the NBA over the last 20 games while at home. The Heat have played at the most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 25 games while traveling, which should decrease opportunities for the Nuggets.

Bam Adebayo has averaged 34.4 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the NBA: 93rd percentile. The Miami Heat rank as the 8th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 25 games away from home as it relates to three-point attempts. The Nuggets have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (7.9) in the NBA to their opposition over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists). Bam Adebayo has sunk 85.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games on the road, 8.1% higher than he's put through the net in all games this year away from home. The matchup against the Nuggets may be a strong one for getting to the free throw line; opposing starting Cs have attempted a whopping 4.5 free throws per game over the last 15 games (27th-most in the league).

Bruce Brown has tallied 3.4 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.0 more than he's tallied over the course of the year. The Denver Nuggets rank as the least aggressive offense in the NBA this year as it relates to attempts from beyond the arc. The matchup against Miami is a tough one; when the Heat are the visiting team, they have given up the 11th-least points per game in the NBA to the opposition's starting PGs this year (16.0). The Denver Nuggets have played at the 5th-most lethargic pace in the NBA over the last 20 games while at home. The Heat have played at the most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 25 games while traveling, which should decrease opportunities for the Nuggets.