Final Oct 4
BOS 107 -1.0 o217.5
DEN 103 1.0 u217.5
Final Oct 4
MIN 124 -4.5 o215.5
LAL 107 4.5 u215.5
Dallas 5th WESTERN CONFERENCE50-32
Minnesota 3rd WESTERN CONFERENCE56-26
BSN, NBALP

Dallas @ Minnesota props

Target Center

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Luka Doncic Points Scored Props • Dallas

L. Doncic
small forward SF • Dallas
Prop
36.5
Points Scored
Projection
31.7
Best Odds
Under
-115
Prop
36.5 Points Scored
Projection
31.7
Best Odds
Under
-115
Projection Rating

This year, the opposing team's starting PGs have averaged 39.8% on shots from the field (15th-weakest in the league) vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves, designating this as a challenging matchup. The Minnesota Timberwolves have played at the 10th-most sluggish pace in the league over the last 15 games, which should decrease opportunities for the Dallas Mavericks. Offensive rebounds save possession and produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Dallas Mavericks grade out 9thworst in in the NBA when playing away from home with only 10.4 offensive boards per game this year. While on their home court, the Timberwolves have allowed the 3rd-most offensive boards per game (12.5) in the NBA to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added opportunities for scoring and assists). Luka Doncic has attempted just 8.5 foul shots per game this year, significantly less than his 10.5 mark last year.

Luka Doncic

Prop: 36.5 Points Scored
Projection: 31.7
Prop:
36.5 Points Scored
Projection:
31.7

This year, the opposing team's starting PGs have averaged 39.8% on shots from the field (15th-weakest in the league) vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves, designating this as a challenging matchup. The Minnesota Timberwolves have played at the 10th-most sluggish pace in the league over the last 15 games, which should decrease opportunities for the Dallas Mavericks. Offensive rebounds save possession and produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Dallas Mavericks grade out 9thworst in in the NBA when playing away from home with only 10.4 offensive boards per game this year. While on their home court, the Timberwolves have allowed the 3rd-most offensive boards per game (12.5) in the NBA to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added opportunities for scoring and assists). Luka Doncic has attempted just 8.5 foul shots per game this year, significantly less than his 10.5 mark last year.

Dante Exum Points Scored Props • Dallas

D. Exum
point guard PG • Dallas
Prop
12.5
Points Scored
Projection
15.8
Best Odds
Over
-118
Prop
12.5 Points Scored
Projection
15.8
Best Odds
Over
-118
Projection Rating

Dante Exum has made 67.4% of his field goals over the last 10 games, 11.5% more than he's made over the course of the season. Dante Exum has made 60.3% of his three-point attempts over the last 10 games, 22.1% higher than he's converted in all games this season. Dante Exum has averaged 32.2 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 13.1 higher than he's averaged in all games this season. When it comes to scoring, the Mavericks's fantastic 116.9 points per game away from home comes in as the 6th-strongest in the NBA over the last 15 games. The 3rd-fastest tempo road team in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Dallas Mavericks.

Dante Exum

Prop: 12.5 Points Scored
Projection: 15.8
Prop:
12.5 Points Scored
Projection:
15.8

Dante Exum has made 67.4% of his field goals over the last 10 games, 11.5% more than he's made over the course of the season. Dante Exum has made 60.3% of his three-point attempts over the last 10 games, 22.1% higher than he's converted in all games this season. Dante Exum has averaged 32.2 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 13.1 higher than he's averaged in all games this season. When it comes to scoring, the Mavericks's fantastic 116.9 points per game away from home comes in as the 6th-strongest in the NBA over the last 15 games. The 3rd-fastest tempo road team in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Dallas Mavericks.

Naz Reid Points Scored Props • Minnesota

N. Reid
center C • Minnesota
Prop
10.5
Points Scored
Projection
12.7
Best Odds
Over
-105
Prop
10.5 Points Scored
Projection
12.7
Best Odds
Over
-105
Projection Rating

Naz Reid has attempted 4.7 treys per game this year, ranking him in the 75th percentile out of all players in the league. As it relates to shooting, the Timberwolves's superb 49.2% field goal percentage measures as the 4th-best in the NBA over the last 25 games. Over the last 5 games, opposing clubs have averaged 33.8% on threes (5th-lowest in the league) vs. the Dallas Mavericks, identifying this as a difficult matchup. The Timberwolves are expected to get a boost in plays in this game from being pitted against the 3rd-most up-tempo pace-of-play road team in the league over the last 15 games (the Dallas Mavericks). Naz Reid has sunk 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 9.4% more than he's made over the course of the season.

Naz Reid

Prop: 10.5 Points Scored
Projection: 12.7
Prop:
10.5 Points Scored
Projection:
12.7

Naz Reid has attempted 4.7 treys per game this year, ranking him in the 75th percentile out of all players in the league. As it relates to shooting, the Timberwolves's superb 49.2% field goal percentage measures as the 4th-best in the NBA over the last 25 games. Over the last 5 games, opposing clubs have averaged 33.8% on threes (5th-lowest in the league) vs. the Dallas Mavericks, identifying this as a difficult matchup. The Timberwolves are expected to get a boost in plays in this game from being pitted against the 3rd-most up-tempo pace-of-play road team in the league over the last 15 games (the Dallas Mavericks). Naz Reid has sunk 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 9.4% more than he's made over the course of the season.

Grant Williams Points Scored Props • Dallas

G. Williams
power forward PF • Dallas
Prop
9.5
Points Scored
Projection
7.8
Best Odds
Under
-124
Prop
9.5 Points Scored
Projection
7.8
Best Odds
Under
-124
Projection Rating

Grant Williams has committed 4.0 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.0 more than he's committed overall this season. The matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves is a difficult one; they have given up the 15th-least points per game in the NBA to the opposing team's starting PFs this year (14.5). The Minnesota Timberwolves have played at the 10th-most sluggish pace in the league over the last 15 games, which should decrease opportunities for the Dallas Mavericks. Offensive rebounds save possession and produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Dallas Mavericks grade out 9thworst in in the NBA when playing away from home with only 10.4 offensive boards per game this year. While on their home court, the Timberwolves have allowed the 3rd-most offensive boards per game (12.5) in the NBA to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added opportunities for scoring and assists).

Grant Williams

Prop: 9.5 Points Scored
Projection: 7.8
Prop:
9.5 Points Scored
Projection:
7.8

Grant Williams has committed 4.0 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.0 more than he's committed overall this season. The matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves is a difficult one; they have given up the 15th-least points per game in the NBA to the opposing team's starting PFs this year (14.5). The Minnesota Timberwolves have played at the 10th-most sluggish pace in the league over the last 15 games, which should decrease opportunities for the Dallas Mavericks. Offensive rebounds save possession and produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Dallas Mavericks grade out 9thworst in in the NBA when playing away from home with only 10.4 offensive boards per game this year. While on their home court, the Timberwolves have allowed the 3rd-most offensive boards per game (12.5) in the NBA to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added opportunities for scoring and assists).

Tim Hardaway Jr. Points Scored Props • Dallas

T. Hardaway Jr.
shooting guard SG • Dallas
Prop
18.5
Points Scored
Projection
21
Best Odds
Over
-125

Relative to last year's 7.8 rate, Tim Hardaway Jr.'s shot attempts from downtown have surged this year to 9.2 per game. When it comes to scoring, the Mavericks's fantastic 116.9 points per game away from home comes in as the 6th-strongest in the NBA over the last 15 games. This year, opposing teams have notched 107.3 points per game (lowest in the NBA) vs. the Timberwolves, designating this as a difficult matchup for offensive effectiveness. The 3rd-fastest tempo road team in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Dallas Mavericks. Tim Hardaway Jr. has made 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games on the road, 8.5% more than he's put through the net overall this year on the road.

Tim Hardaway Jr.

Prop: 18.5 Points Scored
Projection: 21
Prop:
18.5 Points Scored
Projection:
21

Relative to last year's 7.8 rate, Tim Hardaway Jr.'s shot attempts from downtown have surged this year to 9.2 per game. When it comes to scoring, the Mavericks's fantastic 116.9 points per game away from home comes in as the 6th-strongest in the NBA over the last 15 games. This year, opposing teams have notched 107.3 points per game (lowest in the NBA) vs. the Timberwolves, designating this as a difficult matchup for offensive effectiveness. The 3rd-fastest tempo road team in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Dallas Mavericks. Tim Hardaway Jr. has made 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games on the road, 8.5% more than he's put through the net overall this year on the road.

Mike Conley Points Scored Props • Minnesota

M. Conley
point guard PG • Minnesota
Prop
11.5
Points Scored
Projection
12.7
Best Odds
Over
+100
Prop
11.5 Points Scored
Projection
12.7
Best Odds
Over
+100
Projection Rating

Mike Conley has converted 3.4 three-pointers per game over the last 5 games, 1.0 higher than he's made from 3-point range overall this year. Mike Conley has tallied 33.4 minutes per game over the last 14 games when playing at home, 4.6 more than he's tallied overall this year at home. As it relates to shooting, the Timberwolves's superb 49.2% field goal percentage measures as the 4th-best in the NBA over the last 25 games. The matchup vs. Dallas is a favorable one for 3-pointers; when the Mavericks are on the road, opposing starting PGs have totaled the 22nd-most shots from behind the three-point arc per game in the NBA this year (2.4). The Timberwolves are expected to get a boost in plays in this game from being pitted against the 3rd-most up-tempo pace-of-play road team in the league over the last 15 games (the Dallas Mavericks).

Mike Conley

Prop: 11.5 Points Scored
Projection: 12.7
Prop:
11.5 Points Scored
Projection:
12.7

Mike Conley has converted 3.4 three-pointers per game over the last 5 games, 1.0 higher than he's made from 3-point range overall this year. Mike Conley has tallied 33.4 minutes per game over the last 14 games when playing at home, 4.6 more than he's tallied overall this year at home. As it relates to shooting, the Timberwolves's superb 49.2% field goal percentage measures as the 4th-best in the NBA over the last 25 games. The matchup vs. Dallas is a favorable one for 3-pointers; when the Mavericks are on the road, opposing starting PGs have totaled the 22nd-most shots from behind the three-point arc per game in the NBA this year (2.4). The Timberwolves are expected to get a boost in plays in this game from being pitted against the 3rd-most up-tempo pace-of-play road team in the league over the last 15 games (the Dallas Mavericks).

Josh Green Points Scored Props • Dallas

J. Green
shooting guard SG • Dallas
Prop
6.5
Points Scored
Projection
7.5
Best Odds
Over
-125
Prop
6.5 Points Scored
Projection
7.5
Best Odds
Over
-125
Projection Rating

When it comes to scoring, the Mavericks's fantastic 116.9 points per game away from home comes in as the 6th-strongest in the NBA over the last 15 games. This year, opposing teams have notched 107.3 points per game (lowest in the NBA) vs. the Timberwolves, designating this as a difficult matchup for offensive effectiveness. The 3rd-fastest tempo road team in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Dallas Mavericks. Josh Green has converted 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 45.8% more than he's made overall this season. Over the last 5 games when they are the visiting team, their opposition has attempted 18.4 free throws per game (lowest in the NBA) against the Minnesota Timberwolves, struggling to draw fouls.

Josh Green

Prop: 6.5 Points Scored
Projection: 7.5
Prop:
6.5 Points Scored
Projection:
7.5

When it comes to scoring, the Mavericks's fantastic 116.9 points per game away from home comes in as the 6th-strongest in the NBA over the last 15 games. This year, opposing teams have notched 107.3 points per game (lowest in the NBA) vs. the Timberwolves, designating this as a difficult matchup for offensive effectiveness. The 3rd-fastest tempo road team in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Dallas Mavericks. Josh Green has converted 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 45.8% more than he's made overall this season. Over the last 5 games when they are the visiting team, their opposition has attempted 18.4 free throws per game (lowest in the NBA) against the Minnesota Timberwolves, struggling to draw fouls.

Karl-Anthony Towns Points Scored Props • Minnesota

K. Towns
center C • Minnesota
Prop
21.5
Points Scored
Projection
22.4
Best Odds
Over
-110

Among all players in the NBA, Karl-Anthony Towns places in the 90th percentile, compiling a massive 21.4 points per game playing at home this year. Karl-Anthony Towns has played 33.1 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-used players in the league: 85th percentile. As it relates to shooting, the Timberwolves's superb 49.2% field goal percentage measures as the 4th-best in the NBA over the last 25 games. This year, the other team's starting PFs have totaled 16.0 shot attempts per game (30th-most in the NBA) against the Mavericks, creating a good matchup. The Timberwolves are expected to get a boost in plays in this game from being pitted against the 3rd-most up-tempo pace-of-play road team in the league over the last 15 games (the Dallas Mavericks).

Karl-Anthony Towns

Prop: 21.5 Points Scored
Projection: 22.4
Prop:
21.5 Points Scored
Projection:
22.4

Among all players in the NBA, Karl-Anthony Towns places in the 90th percentile, compiling a massive 21.4 points per game playing at home this year. Karl-Anthony Towns has played 33.1 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-used players in the league: 85th percentile. As it relates to shooting, the Timberwolves's superb 49.2% field goal percentage measures as the 4th-best in the NBA over the last 25 games. This year, the other team's starting PFs have totaled 16.0 shot attempts per game (30th-most in the NBA) against the Mavericks, creating a good matchup. The Timberwolves are expected to get a boost in plays in this game from being pitted against the 3rd-most up-tempo pace-of-play road team in the league over the last 15 games (the Dallas Mavericks).

Rudy Gobert Points Scored Props • Minnesota

R. Gobert
center C • Minnesota
Prop
14.5
Points Scored
Projection
14.2
Best Odds
Under
-105

Out of all players in the NBA, Rudy Gobert slots into the 5th percentile for three-point performance with a a weak 0.0% rate this year. The 10th-most sluggish pace-of-play offense in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Minnesota Timberwolves check in as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league playing at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists). This year, opposing squads have snagged 11.8 offensive boards per game (5th-highest in the NBA) vs. the Dallas Mavericks (continuing possessions that can spark further opportunities for offense). The faceoff with Dereck Lively II as it relates to getting to the foul line registers in the 21st percentile for difficulty with the other team's starting Cs attempting a mere 2.4 foul shots per game this year when they have the home court advantage.

Rudy Gobert

Prop: 14.5 Points Scored
Projection: 14.2
Prop:
14.5 Points Scored
Projection:
14.2

Out of all players in the NBA, Rudy Gobert slots into the 5th percentile for three-point performance with a a weak 0.0% rate this year. The 10th-most sluggish pace-of-play offense in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Minnesota Timberwolves check in as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league playing at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists). This year, opposing squads have snagged 11.8 offensive boards per game (5th-highest in the NBA) vs. the Dallas Mavericks (continuing possessions that can spark further opportunities for offense). The faceoff with Dereck Lively II as it relates to getting to the foul line registers in the 21st percentile for difficulty with the other team's starting Cs attempting a mere 2.4 foul shots per game this year when they have the home court advantage.

Kyle Anderson Points Scored Props • Minnesota

K. Anderson
small forward SF • Minnesota
Prop
6.5
Points Scored
Projection
7.1
Best Odds
Over
-115
Prop
6.5 Points Scored
Projection
7.1
Best Odds
Over
-115
Projection Rating

Kyle Anderson has accumulated just 0.0 technical fouls per game this year, quite a bit less than his 0.1 technicals per game last year. As it relates to shooting, the Timberwolves's superb 49.2% field goal percentage measures as the 4th-best in the NBA over the last 25 games. Over the last 5 games, opposing clubs have averaged 33.8% on threes (5th-lowest in the league) vs. the Dallas Mavericks, identifying this as a difficult matchup. The Timberwolves are expected to get a boost in plays in this game from being pitted against the 3rd-most up-tempo pace-of-play road team in the league over the last 15 games (the Dallas Mavericks). Kyle Anderson has made 86.1% of his free throws over the last 15 games, 14.2% more than he's made over the course of the season.

Kyle Anderson

Prop: 6.5 Points Scored
Projection: 7.1
Prop:
6.5 Points Scored
Projection:
7.1

Kyle Anderson has accumulated just 0.0 technical fouls per game this year, quite a bit less than his 0.1 technicals per game last year. As it relates to shooting, the Timberwolves's superb 49.2% field goal percentage measures as the 4th-best in the NBA over the last 25 games. Over the last 5 games, opposing clubs have averaged 33.8% on threes (5th-lowest in the league) vs. the Dallas Mavericks, identifying this as a difficult matchup. The Timberwolves are expected to get a boost in plays in this game from being pitted against the 3rd-most up-tempo pace-of-play road team in the league over the last 15 games (the Dallas Mavericks). Kyle Anderson has made 86.1% of his free throws over the last 15 games, 14.2% more than he's made over the course of the season.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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