Boston @ Miami picks

Caleb Martin has tallied 1.4 offensive boards per game this year at home, ranking him among the hottest players in the NBA in this category over this stretch of games: 82nd percentile. The Boston Celtics have played at the 4th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games while traveling, which ought to lead to more opportunities for the Heat. Caleb Martin will have the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing at home tends to improve player production across the board.

Caleb Martin has sunk 56.5% of his treys over the last 10 games, 16.8% higher than he's converted from beyond the arc overall this season. When it comes to shots from downtown, the Heat's stellar 40.2% rate of converted threes while playing at home measures as the 2nd-best in the NBA over the last 20 games. The matchup vs. the Celtics is a hard one; they have given up the 3rd-least points per game in the league to opposing clubs over the last 5 games (102.6). The Boston Celtics have played at the 4th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games while traveling, which ought to lead to more opportunities for the Heat. Caleb Martin has made 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 21.4% more than he's put through the net over the course of the year.

Payton Pritchard has sunk 2.2 three-pointers per game over the last 15 games on the road, 0.6 more than he's converted from 3-point range over the course of the season away from home. Payton Pritchard has been on the court for 26.6 minutes per game over the last 5 games when playing on the road, 5.6 higher than he's been on the court for in all games this year on the road. The 4th-fastest tempo visiting team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Boston Celtics. Offensive rebounds retain possession and spark extra opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Boston Celtics rank 6thbest in in the league with 11.5 offensive rebounds per game over the last 20 games. The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.6) in the league to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).

Tyler Herro has compiled 5.0 defensive rebounds per game this year, ranking in the 90th percentile -- among the NBA's hottest in this category over this stretch of games. Among all players in the NBA, Tyler Herro measures in the 92nd percentile for playing time, totaling a monstrous 34.2 minutes per game this year. The Boston Celtics have played at the 4th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games while traveling, which ought to lead to more opportunities for the Heat. Tyler Herro will have the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing in your home stadium usually increases player performance across the board.

Out of all players in the league, Terry Rozier comes in at the 96th percentile for shots from the field with the home court advantage, totaling 18.0 per game since the start of last season. Out of all players in the NBA, Terry Rozier rates in the 95th percentile for three-point attempts, tallying 7.7 per game this year. Terry Rozier has tallied 35.6 minutes per game playing at home since the start of last season, putting him in the 97th percentile -- putting him among the most-used players in the NBA. When it comes to shots from downtown, the Heat's stellar 40.2% rate of converted threes while playing at home measures as the 2nd-best in the NBA over the last 20 games. The Boston Celtics have played at the 4th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games while traveling, which ought to lead to more opportunities for the Heat.

Duncan Robinson has put up 2.9 assists per game this year at home, putting him among the NBA's hottest by this standard recently: 75th percentile. Duncan Robinson has played a whopping 28.2 minutes per game this season, quite a bit more than his 17.2 minutes per game last season. The Boston Celtics have played at the 4th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games while traveling, which ought to lead to more opportunities for the Heat. Duncan Robinson should see a rise in productivity for all stats as a result of owning the home court advantage in this matchup.

In comparison to last season's 1.7 clip, Haywood Highsmith's shots from behind the three-point arc have risen this season to 3.0 per game. Haywood Highsmith has tallied 26.4 minutes per game over the last 5 games on his home court, 7.0 higher than he's tallied overall this year at home. When it comes to shots from downtown, the Heat's stellar 40.2% rate of converted threes while playing at home measures as the 2nd-best in the NBA over the last 20 games. The Boston Celtics have played at the 4th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games while traveling, which ought to lead to more opportunities for the Heat. Haywood Highsmith stands to see an increase in output in all facets of the game considering controlling the home court advantage in this game.