Miami 8th EASTERN CONFERENCE46-36
Dallas 5th WESTERN CONFERENCE50-32

Miami @ Dallas props

American Airlines Center

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Josh Green Points Scored Props • Dallas

J. Green
shooting guard SG • Dallas
Prop
5.5
Points Scored
Projection
8.5
Best Odds
Over
+105

Josh Green has converted 52.9% of his field goals over the last 15 games, 8.0% higher than he's put through the net in all games this year. When it comes to scoring, the Mavericks's superb 120.9 points per game measures as the 3rd-strongest in the NBA over the last 10 games. The matchup vs. the Heat is a positive one for shot attempts from downtown; the opposing team's starting SGs have tallied the 30th-most three attempts per game in the league this year (6.3). The 3rd-speediest pace-of-play team in the league over the last 10 games has been the Mavericks. The Heat have allowed the 3rd-least offensive boards per game (9.5) in the NBA to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists).

Josh Green

Prop: 5.5 Points Scored
Projection: 8.5
Prop:
5.5 Points Scored
Projection:
8.5

Josh Green has converted 52.9% of his field goals over the last 15 games, 8.0% higher than he's put through the net in all games this year. When it comes to scoring, the Mavericks's superb 120.9 points per game measures as the 3rd-strongest in the NBA over the last 10 games. The matchup vs. the Heat is a positive one for shot attempts from downtown; the opposing team's starting SGs have tallied the 30th-most three attempts per game in the league this year (6.3). The 3rd-speediest pace-of-play team in the league over the last 10 games has been the Mavericks. The Heat have allowed the 3rd-least offensive boards per game (9.5) in the NBA to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists).

Nikola Jovic Points Scored Props • Miami

N. Jovic
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
6.5
Points Scored
Projection
8.1
Best Odds
Over
-108
Prop
6.5 Points Scored
Projection
8.1
Best Odds
Over
-108
Projection Rating

Nikola Jovic has made 53.4% of his three-pointers over the last 10 games, 11.1% higher than he's sunk overall this year. Nikola Jovic has tallied 21.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games while on the road, 4.7 higher than he's tallied in all games this season on the road. In regard to three-point shots, the Miami Heat's remarkable 37.6% rate of successful threes rates 7th-highest in the NBA this year. The matchup against the Dallas Mavericks is a strong one for field goal attempts; opposing starting PFs have tallied the 30th-most FG attempts per game in the NBA this year (16.0). The Heat will likely get a boost in possessions in this game from sharing the court with the 3rd-fastest pace team in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Dallas Mavericks).

Nikola Jovic

Prop: 6.5 Points Scored
Projection: 8.1
Prop:
6.5 Points Scored
Projection:
8.1

Nikola Jovic has made 53.4% of his three-pointers over the last 10 games, 11.1% higher than he's sunk overall this year. Nikola Jovic has tallied 21.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games while on the road, 4.7 higher than he's tallied in all games this season on the road. In regard to three-point shots, the Miami Heat's remarkable 37.6% rate of successful threes rates 7th-highest in the NBA this year. The matchup against the Dallas Mavericks is a strong one for field goal attempts; opposing starting PFs have tallied the 30th-most FG attempts per game in the NBA this year (16.0). The Heat will likely get a boost in possessions in this game from sharing the court with the 3rd-fastest pace team in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Dallas Mavericks).

Derrick Jones Jr. Points Scored Props • Dallas

D. Jones Jr.
small forward SF • Dallas
Prop
6.5
Points Scored
Projection
5.2
Best Odds
Under
-120
Prop
6.5 Points Scored
Projection
5.2
Best Odds
Under
-120
Projection Rating

The Dallas Mavericks will likely suffer a reduction in possessions in this contest from squaring off against the least up-tempo pace-of-play away team in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Heat). The Mavericks check in as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

Derrick Jones Jr.

Prop: 6.5 Points Scored
Projection: 5.2
Prop:
6.5 Points Scored
Projection:
5.2

The Dallas Mavericks will likely suffer a reduction in possessions in this contest from squaring off against the least up-tempo pace-of-play away team in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Heat). The Mavericks check in as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

Daniel Gafford Points Scored Props • Dallas

D. Gafford
power forward PF • Dallas
Prop
7.5
Points Scored
Projection
6.9
Best Odds
Under
+110
Prop
7.5 Points Scored
Projection
6.9
Best Odds
Under
+110
Projection Rating

Daniel Gafford has converted just 68.3% of his field goals this year, a significant dropoff from his 75.2 rate last year. Out of all players in the league, Daniel Gafford measures in the 6th percentile for three-point attempts with the home court advantage, totaling 0.0 per game this year. Daniel Gafford has averaged 2.5 personal fouls per game at home this year, placing him in the 86th percentile -- among the league's most-whistled. This year, opposing clubs have tallied 36.7 3-point attempts per game (9th-highest in the league) vs. the Heat, designating this as a positive matchup. The showdown with Bam Adebayo comes in at the 3rd percentile for difficulty with the opposition's starting Cs totaling just 12.3 points per game this year.

Daniel Gafford

Prop: 7.5 Points Scored
Projection: 6.9
Prop:
7.5 Points Scored
Projection:
6.9

Daniel Gafford has converted just 68.3% of his field goals this year, a significant dropoff from his 75.2 rate last year. Out of all players in the league, Daniel Gafford measures in the 6th percentile for three-point attempts with the home court advantage, totaling 0.0 per game this year. Daniel Gafford has averaged 2.5 personal fouls per game at home this year, placing him in the 86th percentile -- among the league's most-whistled. This year, opposing clubs have tallied 36.7 3-point attempts per game (9th-highest in the league) vs. the Heat, designating this as a positive matchup. The showdown with Bam Adebayo comes in at the 3rd percentile for difficulty with the opposition's starting Cs totaling just 12.3 points per game this year.

P.J. Washington Points Scored Props • Dallas

P. Washington
power forward PF • Dallas
Prop
12.5
Points Scored
Projection
14.3
Best Odds
Over
-114

P.J. Washington has averaged 34.6 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 4.8 higher than he's averaged in all games this year. When it comes to scoring, the Mavericks's superb 120.9 points per game measures as the 3rd-strongest in the NBA over the last 10 games. This year, the opposition's starting PFs have shot 43.4% on threes (29th-highest in the NBA) against the Miami Heat, marking this as a good matchup. The 3rd-speediest pace-of-play team in the league over the last 10 games has been the Mavericks. The Heat have allowed the 3rd-least offensive boards per game (9.5) in the NBA to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists).

P.J. Washington

Prop: 12.5 Points Scored
Projection: 14.3
Prop:
12.5 Points Scored
Projection:
14.3

P.J. Washington has averaged 34.6 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 4.8 higher than he's averaged in all games this year. When it comes to scoring, the Mavericks's superb 120.9 points per game measures as the 3rd-strongest in the NBA over the last 10 games. This year, the opposition's starting PFs have shot 43.4% on threes (29th-highest in the NBA) against the Miami Heat, marking this as a good matchup. The 3rd-speediest pace-of-play team in the league over the last 10 games has been the Mavericks. The Heat have allowed the 3rd-least offensive boards per game (9.5) in the NBA to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists).

Duncan Robinson Points Scored Props • Miami

D. Robinson
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
13.5
Points Scored
Projection
15.5
Best Odds
Over
-123

Duncan Robinson has scored a terrific 13.3 points per game this season, significantly higher than his 7.3 points per game last season. Duncan Robinson has attempted 6.9 three-pointers per game this season, quite a bit more than his 4.7 mark last season. Duncan Robinson has averaged 35.8 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 7.6 higher than he's averaged over the course of the season. In regard to three-point shots, the Miami Heat's remarkable 37.6% rate of successful threes rates 7th-highest in the NBA this year. This year when they are away from home, the other team's starting SGs have totaled 2.8 three-pointers per game (28th-most in the NBA) vs. the Mavericks, creating a good matchup.

Duncan Robinson

Prop: 13.5 Points Scored
Projection: 15.5
Prop:
13.5 Points Scored
Projection:
15.5

Duncan Robinson has scored a terrific 13.3 points per game this season, significantly higher than his 7.3 points per game last season. Duncan Robinson has attempted 6.9 three-pointers per game this season, quite a bit more than his 4.7 mark last season. Duncan Robinson has averaged 35.8 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 7.6 higher than he's averaged over the course of the season. In regard to three-point shots, the Miami Heat's remarkable 37.6% rate of successful threes rates 7th-highest in the NBA this year. This year when they are away from home, the other team's starting SGs have totaled 2.8 three-pointers per game (28th-most in the NBA) vs. the Mavericks, creating a good matchup.

Terry Rozier Points Scored Props • Miami

T. Rozier
point guard PG • Miami
Prop
16.5
Points Scored
Projection
17.9
Best Odds
Over
-120

Out of all players in the NBA, Terry Rozier lands in the 92nd percentile for shots from the field, logging 16.6 per game this year. Among all players in the league, Terry Rozier places in the 94th percentile for shots from behind the three-point arc, compiling 6.8 per game this year. Terry Rozier has played 33.9 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the league: 91st percentile. In regard to three-point shots, the Miami Heat's remarkable 37.6% rate of successful threes rates 7th-highest in the NBA this year. The Heat will likely get a boost in possessions in this game from sharing the court with the 3rd-fastest pace team in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Dallas Mavericks).

Terry Rozier

Prop: 16.5 Points Scored
Projection: 17.9
Prop:
16.5 Points Scored
Projection:
17.9

Out of all players in the NBA, Terry Rozier lands in the 92nd percentile for shots from the field, logging 16.6 per game this year. Among all players in the league, Terry Rozier places in the 94th percentile for shots from behind the three-point arc, compiling 6.8 per game this year. Terry Rozier has played 33.9 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the league: 91st percentile. In regard to three-point shots, the Miami Heat's remarkable 37.6% rate of successful threes rates 7th-highest in the NBA this year. The Heat will likely get a boost in possessions in this game from sharing the court with the 3rd-fastest pace team in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Dallas Mavericks).

Jaime Jaquez Jr. Points Scored Props • Miami

J. Jaquez Jr.
shooting guard SG • Miami
Prop
10.5
Points Scored
Projection
11.2
Best Odds
Over
+100

Among all players in the league, Jaime Jaquez Jr. rates in the 75th percentile for field goals scored away from his home court, tallying a colossal 4.8 per game this year. Out of all players in the NBA, Jaime Jaquez Jr. places in the 78th percentile for playing time, logging a massive 29.5 minutes per game this year. In regard to three-point shots, the Miami Heat's remarkable 37.6% rate of successful threes rates 7th-highest in the NBA this year. This matchup is a hard one for three-pointers; opposing clubs have put up the 6th-lowest three percentage in the league over the last 5 games while on their home court (32.9%). The Heat will likely get a boost in possessions in this game from sharing the court with the 3rd-fastest pace team in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Dallas Mavericks).

Jaime Jaquez Jr.

Prop: 10.5 Points Scored
Projection: 11.2
Prop:
10.5 Points Scored
Projection:
11.2

Among all players in the league, Jaime Jaquez Jr. rates in the 75th percentile for field goals scored away from his home court, tallying a colossal 4.8 per game this year. Out of all players in the NBA, Jaime Jaquez Jr. places in the 78th percentile for playing time, logging a massive 29.5 minutes per game this year. In regard to three-point shots, the Miami Heat's remarkable 37.6% rate of successful threes rates 7th-highest in the NBA this year. This matchup is a hard one for three-pointers; opposing clubs have put up the 6th-lowest three percentage in the league over the last 5 games while on their home court (32.9%). The Heat will likely get a boost in possessions in this game from sharing the court with the 3rd-fastest pace team in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Dallas Mavericks).

Luka Doncic Points Scored Props • Dallas

L. Doncic
small forward SF • Dallas
Prop
33.5
Points Scored
Projection
32.3
Best Odds
Under
-120
Prop
33.5 Points Scored
Projection
32.3
Best Odds
Under
-120
Projection Rating

Over the last 25 games when they have the home court advantage, the opposition's starting PGs have averaged 2.0 three-pointers per game (7th-fewest in the NBA) vs. the Miami Heat, making this a challenging matchup. The Dallas Mavericks will likely suffer a reduction in possessions in this contest from squaring off against the least up-tempo pace-of-play away team in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Heat). The Mavericks check in as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists). Luka Doncic has attempted a lowly 9.1 free throws per game this season, significantly less than his 10.5 mark last season. Over the last 10 games when they are at home, the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted 4.0 foul shots per game (7th-fewest in the NBA) against the Miami Heat, finding it difficult to get to the foul line.

Luka Doncic

Prop: 33.5 Points Scored
Projection: 32.3
Prop:
33.5 Points Scored
Projection:
32.3

Over the last 25 games when they have the home court advantage, the opposition's starting PGs have averaged 2.0 three-pointers per game (7th-fewest in the NBA) vs. the Miami Heat, making this a challenging matchup. The Dallas Mavericks will likely suffer a reduction in possessions in this contest from squaring off against the least up-tempo pace-of-play away team in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Heat). The Mavericks check in as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists). Luka Doncic has attempted a lowly 9.1 free throws per game this season, significantly less than his 10.5 mark last season. Over the last 10 games when they are at home, the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted 4.0 foul shots per game (7th-fewest in the NBA) against the Miami Heat, finding it difficult to get to the foul line.

Dereck Lively II Points Scored Props • Dallas

D. Lively II
center C • Dallas
Prop
5.5
Points Scored
Projection
6.1
Best Odds
Over
-110
Prop
5.5 Points Scored
Projection
6.1
Best Odds
Over
-110
Projection Rating

Dereck Lively II has sunk 76.1% of his shots from the field over the last 15 games, 6.7% more than he's put through the hoop over the course of the season. When it comes to scoring, the Mavericks's superb 120.9 points per game measures as the 3rd-strongest in the NBA over the last 10 games. The 3rd-speediest pace-of-play team in the league over the last 10 games has been the Mavericks. The Heat have allowed the 3rd-least offensive boards per game (9.5) in the NBA to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists). This matchup is a tough one for getting to the free-throw line; opposing teams have attempted a measly 19.2 foul shots per game when the Heat are the visiting squad this year (3rd-least in the league).

Dereck Lively II

Prop: 5.5 Points Scored
Projection: 6.1
Prop:
5.5 Points Scored
Projection:
6.1

Dereck Lively II has sunk 76.1% of his shots from the field over the last 15 games, 6.7% more than he's put through the hoop over the course of the season. When it comes to scoring, the Mavericks's superb 120.9 points per game measures as the 3rd-strongest in the NBA over the last 10 games. The 3rd-speediest pace-of-play team in the league over the last 10 games has been the Mavericks. The Heat have allowed the 3rd-least offensive boards per game (9.5) in the NBA to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists). This matchup is a tough one for getting to the free-throw line; opposing teams have attempted a measly 19.2 foul shots per game when the Heat are the visiting squad this year (3rd-least in the league).

Jimmy Butler Points Scored Props • Miami

J. Butler
power forward PF • Miami
Prop
23.5
Points Scored
Projection
23.3
Best Odds
Under
-115

The matchup against Dallas is a difficult one for three-point shots; when the Mavericks are at home, the opposing team's starting SFs have averaged the 15th-least threes per game in the league this year (0.8). The Heat have played at the most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games as the away team. The Heat rank as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games as the visting team (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists). With the home court advantage, the Mavericks have allowed the 3rd-most offensive boards per game (11.7) in the league to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create new opportunities for scoring and assists). Over the last 15 games, opposing starting SFs have attempted 1.9 free throws per game (12th-fewest in the NBA) against the Dallas Mavericks, making it tough to draw fouls.

Jimmy Butler

Prop: 23.5 Points Scored
Projection: 23.3
Prop:
23.5 Points Scored
Projection:
23.3

The matchup against Dallas is a difficult one for three-point shots; when the Mavericks are at home, the opposing team's starting SFs have averaged the 15th-least threes per game in the league this year (0.8). The Heat have played at the most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games as the away team. The Heat rank as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games as the visting team (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists). With the home court advantage, the Mavericks have allowed the 3rd-most offensive boards per game (11.7) in the league to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create new opportunities for scoring and assists). Over the last 15 games, opposing starting SFs have attempted 1.9 free throws per game (12th-fewest in the NBA) against the Dallas Mavericks, making it tough to draw fouls.

Kyrie Irving Points Scored Props • Dallas

K. Irving
point guard PG • Dallas
Prop
25.5
Points Scored
Projection
25.4
Best Odds
Under
-114

Kyrie Irving has averaged 2.7 personal fouls per game over the last 9 games with the home court advantage, 0.9 higher than he's averaged in all games this season at home. The Dallas Mavericks will likely suffer a reduction in possessions in this contest from squaring off against the least up-tempo pace-of-play away team in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Heat). The Mavericks check in as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists). The matchup against Miami may be a hard one for getting to the charity stripe; opposing starting SGs have attempted a lowly 1.0 free throws per game over the last 5 games when the Heat are on the road (10th-least in the league).

Kyrie Irving

Prop: 25.5 Points Scored
Projection: 25.4
Prop:
25.5 Points Scored
Projection:
25.4

Kyrie Irving has averaged 2.7 personal fouls per game over the last 9 games with the home court advantage, 0.9 higher than he's averaged in all games this season at home. The Dallas Mavericks will likely suffer a reduction in possessions in this contest from squaring off against the least up-tempo pace-of-play away team in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Heat). The Mavericks check in as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists). The matchup against Miami may be a hard one for getting to the charity stripe; opposing starting SGs have attempted a lowly 1.0 free throws per game over the last 5 games when the Heat are on the road (10th-least in the league).

Bam Adebayo Points Scored Props • Miami

B. Adebayo
center C • Miami
Prop
20.5
Points Scored
Projection
20.6
Best Odds
Over
-114

Among all players in the NBA, Bam Adebayo registers in the 92nd percentile for shots from the field hit, compiling a whopping 7.8 per game this year. Out of all players in the league, Bam Adebayo places in the 94th percentile for playing time, tallying a colossal 34.6 minutes per game this year. In regard to three-point shots, the Miami Heat's remarkable 37.6% rate of successful threes rates 7th-highest in the NBA this year. When at home and defending fellow starting Cs, Daniel Gafford ranks in the 97th percentile with a colossal 2.3 threes attempted against him per game this year. The Heat will likely get a boost in possessions in this game from sharing the court with the 3rd-fastest pace team in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Dallas Mavericks).

Bam Adebayo

Prop: 20.5 Points Scored
Projection: 20.6
Prop:
20.5 Points Scored
Projection:
20.6

Among all players in the NBA, Bam Adebayo registers in the 92nd percentile for shots from the field hit, compiling a whopping 7.8 per game this year. Out of all players in the league, Bam Adebayo places in the 94th percentile for playing time, tallying a colossal 34.6 minutes per game this year. In regard to three-point shots, the Miami Heat's remarkable 37.6% rate of successful threes rates 7th-highest in the NBA this year. When at home and defending fellow starting Cs, Daniel Gafford ranks in the 97th percentile with a colossal 2.3 threes attempted against him per game this year. The Heat will likely get a boost in possessions in this game from sharing the court with the 3rd-fastest pace team in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Dallas Mavericks).

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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