Miami 8th EASTERN CONFERENCE46-36
Detroit 15th EASTERN CONFERENCE14-68
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Miami @ Detroit props

Little Caesars Arena

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Caleb Martin Points Scored Props • Miami

C. Martin
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
11.5
Points Scored
Projection
13.9
Best Odds
Over
-120

Caleb Martin has made 55.5% of his 3-point shots over the last 10 games, 15.8% higher than he's made from 3-point range in all games this year. With respect to threes, the Miami Heat's remarkable 37.2% rate of made threes rates 9th-most in the NBA this year. The Pistons have played at the quickest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to boost opportunities for the Heat. Caleb Martin has made 95.2% of his foul shots over the last 10 games, 12.1% more than he's converted over the course of the season.

Caleb Martin

Prop: 11.5 Points Scored
Projection: 13.9
Prop:
11.5 Points Scored
Projection:
13.9

Caleb Martin has made 55.5% of his 3-point shots over the last 10 games, 15.8% higher than he's made from 3-point range in all games this year. With respect to threes, the Miami Heat's remarkable 37.2% rate of made threes rates 9th-most in the NBA this year. The Pistons have played at the quickest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to boost opportunities for the Heat. Caleb Martin has made 95.2% of his foul shots over the last 10 games, 12.1% more than he's converted over the course of the season.

Jimmy Butler Points Scored Props • Miami

J. Butler
power forward PF • Miami
Prop
21.5
Points Scored
Projection
23.7
Best Odds
Over
-108

Jimmy Butler has logged 19.4 points per game away from home this year, placing him in the 89th percentile -- among the best in the NBA by this metric. Out of all players in the league, Jimmy Butler registers in the 93rd percentile for 3-point effectiveness with a very good 43.8% rate this year. Out of all players in the NBA, Jimmy Butler registers in the 90th percentile for playing time, compiling an enormous 33.4 minutes per game on the road this year. With respect to threes, the Miami Heat's remarkable 37.2% rate of made threes rates 10th-most in the NBA this year. The matchup against Detroit is a good one; when the Pistons are on their home court, they have given up the most points per game in the league to the opposing team's starting SFs over the last 16 games (19.5).

Jimmy Butler

Prop: 21.5 Points Scored
Projection: 23.7
Prop:
21.5 Points Scored
Projection:
23.7

Jimmy Butler has logged 19.4 points per game away from home this year, placing him in the 89th percentile -- among the best in the NBA by this metric. Out of all players in the league, Jimmy Butler registers in the 93rd percentile for 3-point effectiveness with a very good 43.8% rate this year. Out of all players in the NBA, Jimmy Butler registers in the 90th percentile for playing time, compiling an enormous 33.4 minutes per game on the road this year. With respect to threes, the Miami Heat's remarkable 37.2% rate of made threes rates 10th-most in the NBA this year. The matchup against Detroit is a good one; when the Pistons are on their home court, they have given up the most points per game in the league to the opposing team's starting SFs over the last 16 games (19.5).

Duncan Robinson Points Scored Props • Miami

D. Robinson
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
15.5
Points Scored
Projection
17.3
Best Odds
Over
-115

Duncan Robinson has attempted 9.4 shots from behind the three-point arc per game over the last 5 games, 2.3 more than he's attempted overall this year. Duncan Robinson has played 33.5 minutes per game over the last 10 games, 5.1 more than he's played overall this year. With respect to threes, the Miami Heat's remarkable 37.2% rate of made threes rates 9th-most in the NBA this year. The Pistons have played at the quickest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to boost opportunities for the Heat. Duncan Robinson has sunk 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 13.2% higher than he's sunk in all games this year.

Duncan Robinson

Prop: 15.5 Points Scored
Projection: 17.3
Prop:
15.5 Points Scored
Projection:
17.3

Duncan Robinson has attempted 9.4 shots from behind the three-point arc per game over the last 5 games, 2.3 more than he's attempted overall this year. Duncan Robinson has played 33.5 minutes per game over the last 10 games, 5.1 more than he's played overall this year. With respect to threes, the Miami Heat's remarkable 37.2% rate of made threes rates 9th-most in the NBA this year. The Pistons have played at the quickest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to boost opportunities for the Heat. Duncan Robinson has sunk 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 13.2% higher than he's sunk in all games this year.

Terry Rozier Points Scored Props • Miami

T. Rozier
point guard PG • Miami
Prop
19.5
Points Scored
Projection
21.1
Best Odds
Over
-105

Among all players in the NBA, Terry Rozier registers in the 92nd percentile for shots taken, logging 16.5 per game this year. Out of all players in the league, Terry Rozier registers in the 91st percentile for 3-point attempts, compiling 6.6 per game this year. Among all players in the NBA, Terry Rozier rates in the 92nd percentile for playing time, putting up an enormous 34.0 minutes per game this year. With respect to threes, the Miami Heat's remarkable 37.2% rate of made threes rates 9th-most in the NBA this year. This year, the opposing team's starting PGs have posted 21.2 points per game (2nd-most in the league) vs. the Pistons, designating this as a strong matchup for offensive efficiency.

Terry Rozier

Prop: 19.5 Points Scored
Projection: 21.1
Prop:
19.5 Points Scored
Projection:
21.1

Among all players in the NBA, Terry Rozier registers in the 92nd percentile for shots taken, logging 16.5 per game this year. Out of all players in the league, Terry Rozier registers in the 91st percentile for 3-point attempts, compiling 6.6 per game this year. Among all players in the NBA, Terry Rozier rates in the 92nd percentile for playing time, putting up an enormous 34.0 minutes per game this year. With respect to threes, the Miami Heat's remarkable 37.2% rate of made threes rates 9th-most in the NBA this year. This year, the opposing team's starting PGs have posted 21.2 points per game (2nd-most in the league) vs. the Pistons, designating this as a strong matchup for offensive efficiency.

Marcus Sasser Points Scored Props • Detroit

M. Sasser
shooting guard SG • Detroit
Prop
7.5
Points Scored
Projection
8.6
Best Odds
Over
-115
Prop
7.5 Points Scored
Projection
8.6
Best Odds
Over
-115
Projection Rating

Marcus Sasser has successfully made 44.1% of his three-point shots over the last 10 games at home, 13.7% higher than he's made from three over the course of the year on his home court. The fastest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Pistons. Offensive rebounds save possession and result in further opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Detroit Pistons grade out best in in the NBA with 12.4 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games. Among all players in the NBA, Marcus Sasser places in the 90th percentile for foul-shot ability with a great 88.2% rate this year. Marcus Sasser is expected to get a boost in performance for all stats due to controlling the home court advantage in this contest.

Marcus Sasser

Prop: 7.5 Points Scored
Projection: 8.6
Prop:
7.5 Points Scored
Projection:
8.6

Marcus Sasser has successfully made 44.1% of his three-point shots over the last 10 games at home, 13.7% higher than he's made from three over the course of the year on his home court. The fastest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Pistons. Offensive rebounds save possession and result in further opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Detroit Pistons grade out best in in the NBA with 12.4 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games. Among all players in the NBA, Marcus Sasser places in the 90th percentile for foul-shot ability with a great 88.2% rate this year. Marcus Sasser is expected to get a boost in performance for all stats due to controlling the home court advantage in this contest.

Bam Adebayo Points Scored Props • Miami

B. Adebayo
center C • Miami
Prop
22.5
Points Scored
Projection
21.1
Best Odds
Under
-120

Out of all players in the NBA, Bam Adebayo slots into the 84th percentile for personal fouls, logging a massive 2.4 fouls per game this year. The Miami Heat have played at the 2nd-most lethargic tempo in the NBA when playing on the road this year. Offensive rebounds retain possession and result in added chances for scoring and assists, but the Heat rank 3rdworst in in the league on the road with just 9.2 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games. Bam Adebayo has successfully made 61.6% of his free throw attempts over the last 15 games, 12.6% less than he's made overall this year. Bam Adebayo will not enjoy the home court advantage in this game. Playing while traveling usually lowers stat production in all facets of the game.

Bam Adebayo

Prop: 22.5 Points Scored
Projection: 21.1
Prop:
22.5 Points Scored
Projection:
21.1

Out of all players in the NBA, Bam Adebayo slots into the 84th percentile for personal fouls, logging a massive 2.4 fouls per game this year. The Miami Heat have played at the 2nd-most lethargic tempo in the NBA when playing on the road this year. Offensive rebounds retain possession and result in added chances for scoring and assists, but the Heat rank 3rdworst in in the league on the road with just 9.2 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games. Bam Adebayo has successfully made 61.6% of his free throw attempts over the last 15 games, 12.6% less than he's made overall this year. Bam Adebayo will not enjoy the home court advantage in this game. Playing while traveling usually lowers stat production in all facets of the game.

Jaime Jaquez Jr. Points Scored Props • Miami

J. Jaquez Jr.
shooting guard SG • Miami
Prop
16.5
Points Scored
Projection
15.2
Best Odds
Under
-130

Among all players in the league, Jaime Jaquez Jr. rates in the 82nd percentile for personal fouls, averaging a colossal 2.3 fouls per game this year. The Miami Heat have played at the 2nd-most lethargic tempo in the NBA when playing on the road this year. Offensive rebounds retain possession and result in added chances for scoring and assists, but the Heat rank 3rdworst in in the league on the road with just 9.2 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games. Jaime Jaquez Jr. is expected to see a decline in effectiveness in all facets of the game on account of playing away from home in this game.

Jaime Jaquez Jr.

Prop: 16.5 Points Scored
Projection: 15.2
Prop:
16.5 Points Scored
Projection:
15.2

Among all players in the league, Jaime Jaquez Jr. rates in the 82nd percentile for personal fouls, averaging a colossal 2.3 fouls per game this year. The Miami Heat have played at the 2nd-most lethargic tempo in the NBA when playing on the road this year. Offensive rebounds retain possession and result in added chances for scoring and assists, but the Heat rank 3rdworst in in the league on the road with just 9.2 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games. Jaime Jaquez Jr. is expected to see a decline in effectiveness in all facets of the game on account of playing away from home in this game.

Jaden Ivey Points Scored Props • Detroit

J. Ivey
point guard PG • Detroit
Prop
16.5
Points Scored
Projection
17.4
Best Odds
Over
+100

Jaden Ivey has attempted 7.0 treys per game over the last 5 games, 2.4 higher than he's attempted overall this season. Jaden Ivey has been on the court for 36.6 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 7.9 higher than he's been on the court for overall this season. The matchup against the Miami Heat is a good one for shot attempts from beyond the arc; the opposition's starting SGs have tallied the most three attempts per game in the league this year (6.3). The fastest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Pistons. Offensive rebounds save possession and result in further opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Detroit Pistons grade out best in in the NBA with 12.4 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games.

Jaden Ivey

Prop: 16.5 Points Scored
Projection: 17.4
Prop:
16.5 Points Scored
Projection:
17.4

Jaden Ivey has attempted 7.0 treys per game over the last 5 games, 2.4 higher than he's attempted overall this season. Jaden Ivey has been on the court for 36.6 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 7.9 higher than he's been on the court for overall this season. The matchup against the Miami Heat is a good one for shot attempts from beyond the arc; the opposition's starting SGs have tallied the most three attempts per game in the league this year (6.3). The fastest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Pistons. Offensive rebounds save possession and result in further opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Detroit Pistons grade out best in in the NBA with 12.4 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games.

Isaiah Stewart Points Scored Props • Detroit

I. Stewart
power forward PF • Detroit
Prop
10.5
Points Scored
Projection
11.3
Best Odds
Over
-112

Isaiah Stewart has successfully made 56.0% of his field goal attempts over the last 10 games, 6.6% more than he's converted in all games this season. Compared to last season's 30.8% clip, Isaiah Stewart's 3-point prowess has spiked this season to 39.4%. Among all players in the league, Isaiah Stewart slots into the 80th percentile for playing time, totaling a whopping 31.0 minutes per game on his home court this year. This year, the other team's starting PFs have averaged 43.4% on threes (2nd-best in the NBA) against the Miami Heat, resulting in a favorable matchup. The fastest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Pistons.

Isaiah Stewart

Prop: 10.5 Points Scored
Projection: 11.3
Prop:
10.5 Points Scored
Projection:
11.3

Isaiah Stewart has successfully made 56.0% of his field goal attempts over the last 10 games, 6.6% more than he's converted in all games this season. Compared to last season's 30.8% clip, Isaiah Stewart's 3-point prowess has spiked this season to 39.4%. Among all players in the league, Isaiah Stewart slots into the 80th percentile for playing time, totaling a whopping 31.0 minutes per game on his home court this year. This year, the other team's starting PFs have averaged 43.4% on threes (2nd-best in the NBA) against the Miami Heat, resulting in a favorable matchup. The fastest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Pistons.

Jalen Duren Points Scored Props • Detroit

J. Duren
center C • Detroit
Prop
13.5
Points Scored
Projection
13.1
Best Odds
Under
-110

Jalen Duren has made 0.0% of his attempts from beyond the arc this year, placing him in the 5th percentile among all players in the NBA. The Pistons have been the 6th-lowest scoring offense in the NBA while on their home court this year. The number of points registered against Bam Adebayo has been quite low (11.8 per game) when he is playing on the road and squaring off against fellow starting Cs this year (3rd percentile). The Detroit Pistons are expected to see a decline in opportunities today from squaring off against the 2nd-least up-tempo pace road offense in the league this year (the Miami Heat). The matchup against Bam Adebayo is a difficult one for drawing fouls; when Adebayo is away from his home court and matched up against opposing starting Cs this year, they have attempted a lowly 2.2 free throws per game (4th percentile).

Jalen Duren

Prop: 13.5 Points Scored
Projection: 13.1
Prop:
13.5 Points Scored
Projection:
13.1

Jalen Duren has made 0.0% of his attempts from beyond the arc this year, placing him in the 5th percentile among all players in the NBA. The Pistons have been the 6th-lowest scoring offense in the NBA while on their home court this year. The number of points registered against Bam Adebayo has been quite low (11.8 per game) when he is playing on the road and squaring off against fellow starting Cs this year (3rd percentile). The Detroit Pistons are expected to see a decline in opportunities today from squaring off against the 2nd-least up-tempo pace road offense in the league this year (the Miami Heat). The matchup against Bam Adebayo is a difficult one for drawing fouls; when Adebayo is away from his home court and matched up against opposing starting Cs this year, they have attempted a lowly 2.2 free throws per game (4th percentile).

Haywood Highsmith Points Scored Props • Miami

H. Highsmith
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
6.5
Points Scored
Projection
6.4
Best Odds
Under
-110
Prop
6.5 Points Scored
Projection
6.4
Best Odds
Under
-110
Projection Rating

The matchup against the Pistons is a difficult one for three-point attempts; the opposing team's starting PFs have averaged the 2nd-least three attempts per game in the league this year (3.0). The Miami Heat have played at the 2nd-most lethargic tempo in the NBA when playing on the road this year. Offensive rebounds retain possession and result in added chances for scoring and assists, but the Heat rank 3rdworst in in the league on the road with just 9.2 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games. Haywood Highsmith will not possess the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing on the road tends to worsen player production in all facets of the game.

Haywood Highsmith

Prop: 6.5 Points Scored
Projection: 6.4
Prop:
6.5 Points Scored
Projection:
6.4

The matchup against the Pistons is a difficult one for three-point attempts; the opposing team's starting PFs have averaged the 2nd-least three attempts per game in the league this year (3.0). The Miami Heat have played at the 2nd-most lethargic tempo in the NBA when playing on the road this year. Offensive rebounds retain possession and result in added chances for scoring and assists, but the Heat rank 3rdworst in in the league on the road with just 9.2 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games. Haywood Highsmith will not possess the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing on the road tends to worsen player production in all facets of the game.

Simone Fontecchio Points Scored Props • Detroit

S. Fontecchio
small forward SF • Detroit
Prop
13.5
Points Scored
Projection
14
Best Odds
Over
-115

Simone Fontecchio has tallied 16.8 points per game over the last 5 games, 6.4 more than he's tallied overall this season. Simone Fontecchio has attempted 6.3 three-point shots per game over the last 15 games, 1.2 more than he's attempted in all games this season. Simone Fontecchio has been on the court for 32.8 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 8.1 higher than he's been on the court for in all games this year. The matchup against Miami is a good one for shots from behind the three-point arc; when the Heat are the visiting team, the other team's starting SFs have totaled the 3rd-most 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (5.8). The fastest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Pistons.

Simone Fontecchio

Prop: 13.5 Points Scored
Projection: 14
Prop:
13.5 Points Scored
Projection:
14

Simone Fontecchio has tallied 16.8 points per game over the last 5 games, 6.4 more than he's tallied overall this season. Simone Fontecchio has attempted 6.3 three-point shots per game over the last 15 games, 1.2 more than he's attempted in all games this season. Simone Fontecchio has been on the court for 32.8 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 8.1 higher than he's been on the court for in all games this year. The matchup against Miami is a good one for shots from behind the three-point arc; when the Heat are the visiting team, the other team's starting SFs have totaled the 3rd-most 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (5.8). The fastest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Pistons.

Cade Cunningham Points Scored Props • Detroit

C. Cunningham
point guard PG • Detroit
Prop
20.5
Points Scored
Projection
20.6
Best Odds
Over
-115

Cade Cunningham has attempted 18.4 shots per game this year, ranking in the 96th percentile out of all players in the NBA. Cade Cunningham has attempted 6.6 treys per game over the last 10 games, 1.1 higher than he's attempted overall this season. Cade Cunningham has played 33.7 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA: 90th percentile. The matchup against the Heat is a positive one; they have given up the 4th-most points per game in the NBA to opposing starting PGs over the last 10 games (23.1). The fastest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Pistons.

Cade Cunningham

Prop: 20.5 Points Scored
Projection: 20.6
Prop:
20.5 Points Scored
Projection:
20.6

Cade Cunningham has attempted 18.4 shots per game this year, ranking in the 96th percentile out of all players in the NBA. Cade Cunningham has attempted 6.6 treys per game over the last 10 games, 1.1 higher than he's attempted overall this season. Cade Cunningham has played 33.7 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA: 90th percentile. The matchup against the Heat is a positive one; they have given up the 4th-most points per game in the NBA to opposing starting PGs over the last 10 games (23.1). The fastest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Pistons.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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