Final Oct 7
ORL 104 -1.0 o215.0
NO 106 1.0 u215.0
Final Oct 7
MEM 121 -8.0 o218.5
DAL 116 8.0 u218.5
Final Oct 7
OKC 112 -4.0 o219.0
SA 107 4.0 u219.0
Final Oct 7
HOU 113 -4.0 o219.5
UTA 122 4.0 u219.5
Denver 2nd WESTERN CONFERENCE57-25
Dallas 5th WESTERN CONFERENCE50-32
ABC

Denver @ Dallas props

American Airlines Center

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Dante Exum Points Scored Props • Dallas

D. Exum
point guard PG • Dallas
Prop
4.5
Points Scored
Projection
8.4
Best Odds
Over
-130
Prop
4.5 Points Scored
Projection
8.4
Best Odds
Over
-130
Projection Rating

Dante Exum has made 69.8% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 10 games at home, 8.1% more than he's put through the hoop overall this season while at home. Dante Exum has made 100.0% of his treys over the last 5 games at home, 40.0% more than he's converted over the course of the season with the home court advantage. Dante Exum has been on the court for 25.4 minutes per game over the last 10 games playing at home, 5.8 more than he's been on the court for in all games this season at home. As it relates to shooting, the Dallas Mavericks's fantastic 121.2 points per game rates best in the NBA over the last 10 games. The Mavericks have played at the 3rd-most up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games.

Dante Exum

Prop: 4.5 Points Scored
Projection: 8.4
Prop:
4.5 Points Scored
Projection:
8.4

Dante Exum has made 69.8% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 10 games at home, 8.1% more than he's put through the hoop overall this season while at home. Dante Exum has made 100.0% of his treys over the last 5 games at home, 40.0% more than he's converted over the course of the season with the home court advantage. Dante Exum has been on the court for 25.4 minutes per game over the last 10 games playing at home, 5.8 more than he's been on the court for in all games this season at home. As it relates to shooting, the Dallas Mavericks's fantastic 121.2 points per game rates best in the NBA over the last 10 games. The Mavericks have played at the 3rd-most up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games.

Derrick Jones Jr. Points Scored Props • Dallas

D. Jones Jr.
small forward SF • Dallas
Prop
5.5
Points Scored
Projection
7.7
Best Odds
Over
-137
Prop
5.5 Points Scored
Projection
7.7
Best Odds
Over
-137
Projection Rating

Derrick Jones Jr. has totaled an impressive 8.9 points per game this season, a sizeable increase from his 4.8 points per game last season. Compared to last year's 1.2 clip, Derrick Jones Jr.'s shot attempts from downtown have risen this year to 3.3 per game. As it relates to shooting, the Dallas Mavericks's fantastic 121.2 points per game rates best in the NBA over the last 10 games. The Mavericks have played at the 3rd-most up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games. The matchup against Denver is a positive one for getting to the foul line; the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted a whopping 3.2 foul shots per game this year when the Denver Nuggets are away from home (10th-most in the league).

Derrick Jones Jr.

Prop: 5.5 Points Scored
Projection: 7.7
Prop:
5.5 Points Scored
Projection:
7.7

Derrick Jones Jr. has totaled an impressive 8.9 points per game this season, a sizeable increase from his 4.8 points per game last season. Compared to last year's 1.2 clip, Derrick Jones Jr.'s shot attempts from downtown have risen this year to 3.3 per game. As it relates to shooting, the Dallas Mavericks's fantastic 121.2 points per game rates best in the NBA over the last 10 games. The Mavericks have played at the 3rd-most up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games. The matchup against Denver is a positive one for getting to the foul line; the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted a whopping 3.2 foul shots per game this year when the Denver Nuggets are away from home (10th-most in the league).

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Points Scored Props • Denver

K. Caldwell-Pope
shooting guard SG • Denver
Prop
8.5
Points Scored
Projection
9.8
Best Odds
Over
-105

Among all players in the league, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ranks in the 84th percentile for playing time, registering an enormous 31.6 minutes per game this year. This year when they are away from home, the other team's starting SGs have tallied 2.8 threes per game (3rd-most in the league) against the Mavericks, designating this as a positive matchup. The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 3rd-quickest tempo in the league over the last 15 games, which ought to lead to more opportunities for the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets rank as the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games as the visting team (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists). Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has successfully made 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 8.4% higher than he's sunk over the course of the season.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Prop: 8.5 Points Scored
Projection: 9.8
Prop:
8.5 Points Scored
Projection:
9.8

Among all players in the league, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ranks in the 84th percentile for playing time, registering an enormous 31.6 minutes per game this year. This year when they are away from home, the other team's starting SGs have tallied 2.8 threes per game (3rd-most in the league) against the Mavericks, designating this as a positive matchup. The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 3rd-quickest tempo in the league over the last 15 games, which ought to lead to more opportunities for the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets rank as the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games as the visting team (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists). Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has successfully made 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 8.4% higher than he's sunk over the course of the season.

Peyton Watson Points Scored Props • Denver

P. Watson
shooting guard SG • Denver
Prop
6.5
Points Scored
Projection
7.2
Best Odds
Over
+106
Prop
6.5 Points Scored
Projection
7.2
Best Odds
Over
+106
Projection Rating

Peyton Watson has made 52.0% of his field goal attempts over the last 15 games on the road, 5.6% more than he's sunk in all games this season when playing away from home. The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 3rd-quickest tempo in the league over the last 15 games, which ought to lead to more opportunities for the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets rank as the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games as the visting team (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists). Peyton Watson has converted an impressive 59.7% of his free throws this year, quite a bit more than his 45.7 mark last year.

Peyton Watson

Prop: 6.5 Points Scored
Projection: 7.2
Prop:
6.5 Points Scored
Projection:
7.2

Peyton Watson has made 52.0% of his field goal attempts over the last 15 games on the road, 5.6% more than he's sunk in all games this season when playing away from home. The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 3rd-quickest tempo in the league over the last 15 games, which ought to lead to more opportunities for the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets rank as the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games as the visting team (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists). Peyton Watson has converted an impressive 59.7% of his free throws this year, quite a bit more than his 45.7 mark last year.

P.J. Washington Points Scored Props • Dallas

P. Washington
power forward PF • Dallas
Prop
10.5
Points Scored
Projection
12.1
Best Odds
Over
-130

P.J. Washington has played 29.9 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the league: 80th percentile. As it relates to shooting, the Dallas Mavericks's fantastic 121.2 points per game rates best in the NBA over the last 10 games. This year when they are on their home court, the other team's starting PFs have averaged 44.8% on 3-pointers (5th-highest in the league) against the Nuggets, resulting in a good matchup. The Mavericks have played at the 3rd-most up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games. P.J. Washington figures to see a spike in performance across the board in light of owning the home court advantage in this matchup.

P.J. Washington

Prop: 10.5 Points Scored
Projection: 12.1
Prop:
10.5 Points Scored
Projection:
12.1

P.J. Washington has played 29.9 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the league: 80th percentile. As it relates to shooting, the Dallas Mavericks's fantastic 121.2 points per game rates best in the NBA over the last 10 games. This year when they are on their home court, the other team's starting PFs have averaged 44.8% on 3-pointers (5th-highest in the league) against the Nuggets, resulting in a good matchup. The Mavericks have played at the 3rd-most up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games. P.J. Washington figures to see a spike in performance across the board in light of owning the home court advantage in this matchup.

Daniel Gafford Points Scored Props • Dallas

D. Gafford
power forward PF • Dallas
Prop
9.5
Points Scored
Projection
11.1
Best Odds
Over
-135

Daniel Gafford has successfully made 94.6% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 5 games, 24.0% more than he's converted overall this season. As it relates to shooting, the Dallas Mavericks's fantastic 121.2 points per game rates best in the NBA over the last 10 games. The number of shots from the field against Nikola Jokic has been remarkably high (11.7 per game) when matched up against opposing starting Cs this year (93rd percentile). The Mavericks have played at the 3rd-most up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games. Among all players in the NBA, Daniel Gafford comes in at the 77th percentile for getting to the charity stripe, totaling an enormous 2.6 foul shot attempts per game this year.

Daniel Gafford

Prop: 9.5 Points Scored
Projection: 11.1
Prop:
9.5 Points Scored
Projection:
11.1

Daniel Gafford has successfully made 94.6% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 5 games, 24.0% more than he's converted overall this season. As it relates to shooting, the Dallas Mavericks's fantastic 121.2 points per game rates best in the NBA over the last 10 games. The number of shots from the field against Nikola Jokic has been remarkably high (11.7 per game) when matched up against opposing starting Cs this year (93rd percentile). The Mavericks have played at the 3rd-most up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games. Among all players in the NBA, Daniel Gafford comes in at the 77th percentile for getting to the charity stripe, totaling an enormous 2.6 foul shot attempts per game this year.

Nikola Jokic Points Scored Props • Denver

N. Jokic
center C • Denver
Prop
27.5
Points Scored
Projection
25.9
Best Odds
Under
-120
Prop
27.5 Points Scored
Projection
25.9
Best Odds
Under
-120
Projection Rating

Nikola Jokic has averaged 2.4 personal fouls per game away from his home court this year, putting him in the 83rd percentile -- among the league's most foul-prone. As it relates to 3-point attempts, the least aggressive offense in the league as the visting team this year has been the Denver Nuggets. The matchup against Daniel Gafford is a hard one for shots from the field; when Gafford is playing at home and guarding opposing starting Cs this year, they have converted just 47.6% of their field goals (4th percentile). The most lethargic tempo visiting offense in the league over the last 25 games has been the Nuggets. Nikola Jokic will likely suffer a reduction in effectiveness in all stat categories on account of playing on the visting team in this contest.

Nikola Jokic

Prop: 27.5 Points Scored
Projection: 25.9
Prop:
27.5 Points Scored
Projection:
25.9

Nikola Jokic has averaged 2.4 personal fouls per game away from his home court this year, putting him in the 83rd percentile -- among the league's most foul-prone. As it relates to 3-point attempts, the least aggressive offense in the league as the visting team this year has been the Denver Nuggets. The matchup against Daniel Gafford is a hard one for shots from the field; when Gafford is playing at home and guarding opposing starting Cs this year, they have converted just 47.6% of their field goals (4th percentile). The most lethargic tempo visiting offense in the league over the last 25 games has been the Nuggets. Nikola Jokic will likely suffer a reduction in effectiveness in all stat categories on account of playing on the visting team in this contest.

Luka Doncic Points Scored Props • Dallas

L. Doncic
small forward SF • Dallas
Prop
32.5
Points Scored
Projection
31.4
Best Odds
Under
-115
Prop
32.5 Points Scored
Projection
31.4
Best Odds
Under
-115
Projection Rating

The matchup against Denver is a difficult one for shots from behind the three-point arc; when the Nuggets are the visiting team, the other team's starting PGs have tallied the least three attempts per game in the league this year (4.5). The Nuggets have played at the slowest pace in the NBA over the last 25 games without the home court advantage, which ought to decrease possessions for the Mavericks. The Dallas Mavericks rank as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists). Compared to last year's 10.5 clip, Luka Doncic's number of foul shots has dropped this year to 8.9 foul shots per game.

Luka Doncic

Prop: 32.5 Points Scored
Projection: 31.4
Prop:
32.5 Points Scored
Projection:
31.4

The matchup against Denver is a difficult one for shots from behind the three-point arc; when the Nuggets are the visiting team, the other team's starting PGs have tallied the least three attempts per game in the league this year (4.5). The Nuggets have played at the slowest pace in the NBA over the last 25 games without the home court advantage, which ought to decrease possessions for the Mavericks. The Dallas Mavericks rank as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists). Compared to last year's 10.5 clip, Luka Doncic's number of foul shots has dropped this year to 8.9 foul shots per game.

Aaron Gordon Points Scored Props • Denver

A. Gordon
power forward PF • Denver
Prop
13.5
Points Scored
Projection
14.3
Best Odds
Over
-106

Aaron Gordon has made 79.4% of his field goals over the last 5 games, 21.0% more than he's put through the net in all games this season. Among all players in the league, Aaron Gordon ranks in the 83rd percentile for playing time, putting up a massive 31.3 minutes per game this year. The matchup vs. the Mavericks is a good one for shots from the field; opposing starting PFs have tallied the most shot attempts per game in the league this year (16.0). The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 3rd-quickest tempo in the league over the last 15 games, which ought to lead to more opportunities for the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets rank as the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games as the visting team (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists).

Aaron Gordon

Prop: 13.5 Points Scored
Projection: 14.3
Prop:
13.5 Points Scored
Projection:
14.3

Aaron Gordon has made 79.4% of his field goals over the last 5 games, 21.0% more than he's put through the net in all games this season. Among all players in the league, Aaron Gordon ranks in the 83rd percentile for playing time, putting up a massive 31.3 minutes per game this year. The matchup vs. the Mavericks is a good one for shots from the field; opposing starting PFs have tallied the most shot attempts per game in the league this year (16.0). The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 3rd-quickest tempo in the league over the last 15 games, which ought to lead to more opportunities for the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets rank as the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games as the visting team (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists).

Michael Porter Jr. Points Scored Props • Denver

M. Porter Jr.
power forward PF • Denver
Prop
16.5
Points Scored
Projection
17.5
Best Odds
Over
-119
Prop
16.5 Points Scored
Projection
17.5
Best Odds
Over
-119
Projection Rating

Michael Porter Jr. has successfully made 3.6 3-pointers per game over the last 5 games on the road, 1.0 more than he's converted from 3-point range in all games this year without the home court advantage. Out of all players in the league, Michael Porter Jr. lands in the 84th percentile for playing time, tallying an enormous 31.7 minutes per game this year. The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 3rd-quickest tempo in the league over the last 15 games, which ought to lead to more opportunities for the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets rank as the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games as the visting team (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists). Michael Porter Jr. has sunk 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games on the road, 19.9% more than he's sunk in all games this season without the home court advantage.

Michael Porter Jr.

Prop: 16.5 Points Scored
Projection: 17.5
Prop:
16.5 Points Scored
Projection:
17.5

Michael Porter Jr. has successfully made 3.6 3-pointers per game over the last 5 games on the road, 1.0 more than he's converted from 3-point range in all games this year without the home court advantage. Out of all players in the league, Michael Porter Jr. lands in the 84th percentile for playing time, tallying an enormous 31.7 minutes per game this year. The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 3rd-quickest tempo in the league over the last 15 games, which ought to lead to more opportunities for the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets rank as the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games as the visting team (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists). Michael Porter Jr. has sunk 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games on the road, 19.9% more than he's sunk in all games this season without the home court advantage.

Kyrie Irving Points Scored Props • Dallas

K. Irving
point guard PG • Dallas
Prop
24.5
Points Scored
Projection
24.3
Best Odds
Under
-110

Kyrie Irving has committed 2.7 personal fouls per game over the last 9 games at home, 0.8 higher than he's committed in all games this year at home. The matchup vs. the Nuggets is a difficult one; they have given up the least points per game in the NBA to the opposition's starting SGs over the last 25 games (15.6). The Nuggets have played at the slowest pace in the NBA over the last 25 games without the home court advantage, which ought to decrease possessions for the Mavericks. The Dallas Mavericks rank as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).

Kyrie Irving

Prop: 24.5 Points Scored
Projection: 24.3
Prop:
24.5 Points Scored
Projection:
24.3

Kyrie Irving has committed 2.7 personal fouls per game over the last 9 games at home, 0.8 higher than he's committed in all games this year at home. The matchup vs. the Nuggets is a difficult one; they have given up the least points per game in the NBA to the opposition's starting SGs over the last 25 games (15.6). The Nuggets have played at the slowest pace in the NBA over the last 25 games without the home court advantage, which ought to decrease possessions for the Mavericks. The Dallas Mavericks rank as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).

Jamal Murray Points Scored Props • Denver

J. Murray
shooting guard SG • Denver
Prop
21.5
Points Scored
Projection
22.1
Best Odds
Over
-122

Jamal Murray has attempted 16.6 field goals per game this year, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among all players in the NBA. Among all players in the league, Jamal Murray measures in the 89th percentile for three-point performance while on the road with a terrific 42.4% rate this year. Among all players in the NBA, Jamal Murray measures in the 85th percentile for playing time, totaling a monstrous 32.0 minutes per game this year. The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 3rd-quickest tempo in the league over the last 15 games, which ought to lead to more opportunities for the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets rank as the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games as the visting team (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists).

Jamal Murray

Prop: 21.5 Points Scored
Projection: 22.1
Prop:
21.5 Points Scored
Projection:
22.1

Jamal Murray has attempted 16.6 field goals per game this year, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among all players in the NBA. Among all players in the league, Jamal Murray measures in the 89th percentile for three-point performance while on the road with a terrific 42.4% rate this year. Among all players in the NBA, Jamal Murray measures in the 85th percentile for playing time, totaling a monstrous 32.0 minutes per game this year. The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 3rd-quickest tempo in the league over the last 15 games, which ought to lead to more opportunities for the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets rank as the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games as the visting team (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists).

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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