ATL 9.5 o237.5
BOS -9.5 u237.5
PHI 10.5 o224.5
IND -10.5 u224.5
WAS 13.0 o230.0
GS -13.0 u230.0
CLE -5.5 o226.5
MIN 5.5 u226.5
HOU -11.0 o223.0
POR 11.0 u223.0
Final Jan 18
PHO 125 -1.0 o227.0
DET 121 1.0 u227.0
Dallas 5th WESTERN CONFERENCE50-32
Miami 8th EASTERN CONFERENCE46-36
ESPN, BSN, WFAA

Dallas @ Miami props

Kaseya Center

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Dante Exum Points Scored Props • Dallas

D. Exum
point guard PG • Dallas
Prop
5.5
Points Scored
Projection
7.8
Best Odds
Over
-125
Prop
5.5 Points Scored
Projection
7.8
Best Odds
Over
-125
Projection Rating

Dante Exum has converted 1.6 shots from behind the three-point arc per game over the last 5 games on the road, 0.7 higher than he's made from downtown in all games this season on the road. Dante Exum has tallied 26.2 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 6.2 more than he's tallied in all games this year. With respect to scoring, the Dallas Mavericks's excellent 120.5 points per game on the road comes in as the most in the league over the last 15 games. The Mavericks have played at the 4th-fastest pace in the league over the last 5 games. Dante Exum has sunk 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 19.5% more than he's put through the net in all games this season.

Dante Exum

Prop: 5.5 Points Scored
Projection: 7.8
Prop:
5.5 Points Scored
Projection:
7.8

Dante Exum has converted 1.6 shots from behind the three-point arc per game over the last 5 games on the road, 0.7 higher than he's made from downtown in all games this season on the road. Dante Exum has tallied 26.2 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 6.2 more than he's tallied in all games this year. With respect to scoring, the Dallas Mavericks's excellent 120.5 points per game on the road comes in as the most in the league over the last 15 games. The Mavericks have played at the 4th-fastest pace in the league over the last 5 games. Dante Exum has sunk 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 19.5% more than he's put through the net in all games this season.

P.J. Washington Points Scored Props • Dallas

P. Washington
power forward PF • Dallas
Prop
11.5
Points Scored
Projection
13.3
Best Odds
Over
-120

P.J. Washington has converted 3.0 threes per game over the last 5 games, 1.2 higher than he's made from 3-point range overall this year. P.J. Washington has tallied 36.6 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 6.0 more than he's tallied in all games this season. With respect to scoring, the Dallas Mavericks's excellent 120.5 points per game on the road comes in as the most in the league over the last 15 games. The matchup vs. Miami is a favorable one for 3-point shots; when the Miami Heat are on their home court, the other team's starting PFs have compiled the highest three percentage in the league this year (46.4%). The Mavericks have played at the 4th-fastest pace in the league over the last 5 games.

P.J. Washington

Prop: 11.5 Points Scored
Projection: 13.3
Prop:
11.5 Points Scored
Projection:
13.3

P.J. Washington has converted 3.0 threes per game over the last 5 games, 1.2 higher than he's made from 3-point range overall this year. P.J. Washington has tallied 36.6 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 6.0 more than he's tallied in all games this season. With respect to scoring, the Dallas Mavericks's excellent 120.5 points per game on the road comes in as the most in the league over the last 15 games. The matchup vs. Miami is a favorable one for 3-point shots; when the Miami Heat are on their home court, the other team's starting PFs have compiled the highest three percentage in the league this year (46.4%). The Mavericks have played at the 4th-fastest pace in the league over the last 5 games.

Tyler Herro Points Scored Props • Miami

T. Herro
shooting guard SG • Miami
Prop
22.5
Points Scored
Projection
20.9
Best Odds
Under
-115

The 2nd-most sluggish pace offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Miami Heat. Offensive rebounds save possession and produce extra chances for scoring and assists, but the Heat grade out 3rdworst in in the NBA with just 8.6 offensive boards per game over the last 15 games. The matchup against the Dallas Mavericks may be a hard one for drawing fouls; the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted just 2.9 foul shots per game over the last 20 games (least in the NBA).

Tyler Herro

Prop: 22.5 Points Scored
Projection: 20.9
Prop:
22.5 Points Scored
Projection:
20.9

The 2nd-most sluggish pace offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Miami Heat. Offensive rebounds save possession and produce extra chances for scoring and assists, but the Heat grade out 3rdworst in in the NBA with just 8.6 offensive boards per game over the last 15 games. The matchup against the Dallas Mavericks may be a hard one for drawing fouls; the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted just 2.9 foul shots per game over the last 20 games (least in the NBA).

Bam Adebayo Points Scored Props • Miami

B. Adebayo
center C • Miami
Prop
17.5
Points Scored
Projection
19.2
Best Odds
Over
-120

Bam Adebayo has successfully made 64.6% of his treys over the last 15 games, 28.1% more than he's made from beyond the arc overall this year. Among all players in the NBA, Bam Adebayo registers in the 89th percentile for playing time, posting a massive 33.3 minutes per game at home this year. When it comes to 3-point shots, the Heat's stellar 38.1% rate of converted threes while on their home court measures as the 7th-strongest in the NBA this year. The number of points averaged against Daniel Gafford has been remarkably high (16.2 per game) when he is on the visiting team and squaring off against opposing starting Cs this year (86th percentile). The Mavericks have played at the 4th-fastest pace in the league over the last 5 games, which should raise opportunities for the Miami Heat.

Bam Adebayo

Prop: 17.5 Points Scored
Projection: 19.2
Prop:
17.5 Points Scored
Projection:
19.2

Bam Adebayo has successfully made 64.6% of his treys over the last 15 games, 28.1% more than he's made from beyond the arc overall this year. Among all players in the NBA, Bam Adebayo registers in the 89th percentile for playing time, posting a massive 33.3 minutes per game at home this year. When it comes to 3-point shots, the Heat's stellar 38.1% rate of converted threes while on their home court measures as the 7th-strongest in the NBA this year. The number of points averaged against Daniel Gafford has been remarkably high (16.2 per game) when he is on the visiting team and squaring off against opposing starting Cs this year (86th percentile). The Mavericks have played at the 4th-fastest pace in the league over the last 5 games, which should raise opportunities for the Miami Heat.

Derrick Jones Jr. Points Scored Props • Dallas

D. Jones Jr.
small forward SF • Dallas
Prop
6.5
Points Scored
Projection
7.6
Best Odds
Over
-119
Prop
6.5 Points Scored
Projection
7.6
Best Odds
Over
-119
Projection Rating

In contrast to last year's 4.8 mark, Derrick Jones Jr.'s points per game have risen this year to 8.7. With respect to scoring, the Dallas Mavericks's excellent 120.5 points per game on the road comes in as the most in the league over the last 15 games. The matchup against the Heat is a favorable one for field goal attempts; the other team's starting SFs have totaled the 7th-most shot attempts per game in the league this year (12.2). The Mavericks have played at the 4th-fastest pace in the league over the last 5 games. The matchup vs. the Miami Heat may be a favorable one for getting to the foul line; the other team's starting SFs have attempted a whopping 6.0 free throws per game over the last 5 games (3rd-most in the league).

Derrick Jones Jr.

Prop: 6.5 Points Scored
Projection: 7.6
Prop:
6.5 Points Scored
Projection:
7.6

In contrast to last year's 4.8 mark, Derrick Jones Jr.'s points per game have risen this year to 8.7. With respect to scoring, the Dallas Mavericks's excellent 120.5 points per game on the road comes in as the most in the league over the last 15 games. The matchup against the Heat is a favorable one for field goal attempts; the other team's starting SFs have totaled the 7th-most shot attempts per game in the league this year (12.2). The Mavericks have played at the 4th-fastest pace in the league over the last 5 games. The matchup vs. the Miami Heat may be a favorable one for getting to the foul line; the other team's starting SFs have attempted a whopping 6.0 free throws per game over the last 5 games (3rd-most in the league).

Tim Hardaway Jr. Points Scored Props • Dallas

T. Hardaway Jr.
shooting guard SG • Dallas
Prop
8.5
Points Scored
Projection
9.7
Best Odds
Over
-120

Out of all players in the NBA, Tim Hardaway Jr. registers in the 96th percentile for shots from behind the three-point arc, posting 7.7 per game this year. With respect to scoring, the Dallas Mavericks's excellent 120.5 points per game on the road comes in as the most in the league over the last 15 games. The Mavericks have played at the 4th-fastest pace in the league over the last 5 games. Tim Hardaway Jr. has made 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 5 games, 13.6% more than he's sunk overall this season.

Tim Hardaway Jr.

Prop: 8.5 Points Scored
Projection: 9.7
Prop:
8.5 Points Scored
Projection:
9.7

Out of all players in the NBA, Tim Hardaway Jr. registers in the 96th percentile for shots from behind the three-point arc, posting 7.7 per game this year. With respect to scoring, the Dallas Mavericks's excellent 120.5 points per game on the road comes in as the most in the league over the last 15 games. The Mavericks have played at the 4th-fastest pace in the league over the last 5 games. Tim Hardaway Jr. has made 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 5 games, 13.6% more than he's sunk overall this season.

Jimmy Butler Points Scored Props • Miami

J. Butler
power forward PF • Miami
Prop
22.5
Points Scored
Projection
21.3
Best Odds
Under
-120

In comparison to last year's 8.0 clip, Jimmy Butler's shots from the field made have fallen this year to 6.7 per game. The matchup vs. the Mavericks is a challenging one; they have given up the 2nd-least points per game in the NBA to the other team's starting SFs over the last 15 games (11.4). The 2nd-most sluggish pace offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Miami Heat. Offensive rebounds save possession and produce extra chances for scoring and assists, but the Heat grade out 3rdworst in in the NBA with just 8.6 offensive boards per game over the last 15 games. The matchup against Dallas is a difficult one for getting to the free-throw line; opposing starting SFs have attempted just 1.6 free throws per game this year when the Dallas Mavericks are on the road (2nd-least in the NBA).

Jimmy Butler

Prop: 22.5 Points Scored
Projection: 21.3
Prop:
22.5 Points Scored
Projection:
21.3

In comparison to last year's 8.0 clip, Jimmy Butler's shots from the field made have fallen this year to 6.7 per game. The matchup vs. the Mavericks is a challenging one; they have given up the 2nd-least points per game in the NBA to the other team's starting SFs over the last 15 games (11.4). The 2nd-most sluggish pace offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Miami Heat. Offensive rebounds save possession and produce extra chances for scoring and assists, but the Heat grade out 3rdworst in in the NBA with just 8.6 offensive boards per game over the last 15 games. The matchup against Dallas is a difficult one for getting to the free-throw line; opposing starting SFs have attempted just 1.6 free throws per game this year when the Dallas Mavericks are on the road (2nd-least in the NBA).

Caleb Martin Points Scored Props • Miami

C. Martin
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
9.5
Points Scored
Projection
10.8
Best Odds
Over
-132

When it comes to 3-point shots, the Heat's stellar 38.1% rate of converted threes while on their home court measures as the 7th-strongest in the NBA this year. The matchup vs. the Dallas Mavericks is a good one for shot attempts from downtown; the opposition's starting SGs have tallied the 5th-most 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (6.1). The faceoff with Kyrie Irving rates in just the 90th percentile for difficulty with the opposition's starting SGs scoring a massive 49.1% of their field goals this year when they are playing at home. The Mavericks have played at the 4th-fastest pace in the league over the last 5 games, which should raise opportunities for the Miami Heat. Caleb Martin has made 90.3% of his foul shot attempts over the last 10 games at home, 9.6% higher than he's made in all games this year playing at home.

Caleb Martin

Prop: 9.5 Points Scored
Projection: 10.8
Prop:
9.5 Points Scored
Projection:
10.8

When it comes to 3-point shots, the Heat's stellar 38.1% rate of converted threes while on their home court measures as the 7th-strongest in the NBA this year. The matchup vs. the Dallas Mavericks is a good one for shot attempts from downtown; the opposition's starting SGs have tallied the 5th-most 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (6.1). The faceoff with Kyrie Irving rates in just the 90th percentile for difficulty with the opposition's starting SGs scoring a massive 49.1% of their field goals this year when they are playing at home. The Mavericks have played at the 4th-fastest pace in the league over the last 5 games, which should raise opportunities for the Miami Heat. Caleb Martin has made 90.3% of his foul shot attempts over the last 10 games at home, 9.6% higher than he's made in all games this year playing at home.

Jaime Jaquez Jr. Points Scored Props • Miami

J. Jaquez Jr.
shooting guard SG • Miami
Prop
6.5
Points Scored
Projection
7.3
Best Odds
Over
-115
Prop
6.5 Points Scored
Projection
7.3
Best Odds
Over
-115
Projection Rating

Jaime Jaquez Jr. has made 41.7% of his attempts from beyond the arc over the last 5 games, 10.7% higher than he's converted from downtown overall this year. When it comes to 3-point shots, the Heat's stellar 38.1% rate of converted threes while on their home court measures as the 7th-strongest in the NBA this year. The Mavericks have played at the 4th-fastest pace in the league over the last 5 games, which should raise opportunities for the Miami Heat. Jaime Jaquez Jr. has sunk 90.3% of his foul shots over the last 10 games, 8.7% higher than he's made overall this year. Jaime Jaquez Jr. stands to see an increase in efficiency in all facets of the game considering holding the home court advantage in this contest.

Jaime Jaquez Jr.

Prop: 6.5 Points Scored
Projection: 7.3
Prop:
6.5 Points Scored
Projection:
7.3

Jaime Jaquez Jr. has made 41.7% of his attempts from beyond the arc over the last 5 games, 10.7% higher than he's converted from downtown overall this year. When it comes to 3-point shots, the Heat's stellar 38.1% rate of converted threes while on their home court measures as the 7th-strongest in the NBA this year. The Mavericks have played at the 4th-fastest pace in the league over the last 5 games, which should raise opportunities for the Miami Heat. Jaime Jaquez Jr. has sunk 90.3% of his foul shots over the last 10 games, 8.7% higher than he's made overall this year. Jaime Jaquez Jr. stands to see an increase in efficiency in all facets of the game considering holding the home court advantage in this contest.

Nikola Jovic Points Scored Props • Miami

N. Jovic
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
9.5
Points Scored
Projection
9.8
Best Odds
Over
+102

Nikola Jovic has successfully made a whopping 40.3% of his 3-point shots this season, significantly more than his 21.7 rate last season. Nikola Jovic has played 24.8 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 5.5 more than he's played overall this year. When it comes to 3-point shots, the Heat's stellar 38.1% rate of converted threes while on their home court measures as the 7th-strongest in the NBA this year. The matchup vs. the Dallas Mavericks is a strong one for shots from the field; the other team's starting PFs have tallied the most field goal attempts per game in the league this year (16.0). The Mavericks have played at the 4th-fastest pace in the league over the last 5 games, which should raise opportunities for the Miami Heat.

Nikola Jovic

Prop: 9.5 Points Scored
Projection: 9.8
Prop:
9.5 Points Scored
Projection:
9.8

Nikola Jovic has successfully made a whopping 40.3% of his 3-point shots this season, significantly more than his 21.7 rate last season. Nikola Jovic has played 24.8 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 5.5 more than he's played overall this year. When it comes to 3-point shots, the Heat's stellar 38.1% rate of converted threes while on their home court measures as the 7th-strongest in the NBA this year. The matchup vs. the Dallas Mavericks is a strong one for shots from the field; the other team's starting PFs have tallied the most field goal attempts per game in the league this year (16.0). The Mavericks have played at the 4th-fastest pace in the league over the last 5 games, which should raise opportunities for the Miami Heat.

Daniel Gafford Points Scored Props • Dallas

D. Gafford
power forward PF • Dallas
Prop
9.5
Points Scored
Projection
10.3
Best Odds
Over
-125

Daniel Gafford has successfully made 6.3 field goals per game over the last 10 games on the road, 1.6 more than he's put through the hoop overall this season when playing away from home. With respect to scoring, the Dallas Mavericks's excellent 120.5 points per game on the road comes in as the most in the league over the last 15 games. The rate of shots made against Bam Adebayo has been very high (62.3%) when he is playing at home and defending opposing starting Cs this year (100th percentile). The Mavericks have played at the 4th-fastest pace in the league over the last 5 games.

Daniel Gafford

Prop: 9.5 Points Scored
Projection: 10.3
Prop:
9.5 Points Scored
Projection:
10.3

Daniel Gafford has successfully made 6.3 field goals per game over the last 10 games on the road, 1.6 more than he's put through the hoop overall this season when playing away from home. With respect to scoring, the Dallas Mavericks's excellent 120.5 points per game on the road comes in as the most in the league over the last 15 games. The rate of shots made against Bam Adebayo has been very high (62.3%) when he is playing at home and defending opposing starting Cs this year (100th percentile). The Mavericks have played at the 4th-fastest pace in the league over the last 5 games.

Luka Doncic Points Scored Props • Dallas

L. Doncic
small forward SF • Dallas
Prop
30.5
Points Scored
Projection
30.2
Best Odds
Under
-106
Prop
30.5 Points Scored
Projection
30.2
Best Odds
Under
-106
Projection Rating

The Mavericks are expected to suffer a reduction in opportunities in this contest from facing the 2nd-least up-tempo pace team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Miami Heat). Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and create more chances for scoring and assists, but the Mavericks grade out 2ndworst in in the NBA when playing on the road with a mere 8.1 offensive rebounds per game over the last 20 games. In comparison to last year's 10.5 mark, Luka Doncic's number of free throw attempts has fallen this year to 8.7 free throw attempts per game. Luka Doncic stands to suffer a drop-off in production in all stat categories as a result of being on the road in this contest.

Luka Doncic

Prop: 30.5 Points Scored
Projection: 30.2
Prop:
30.5 Points Scored
Projection:
30.2

The Mavericks are expected to suffer a reduction in opportunities in this contest from facing the 2nd-least up-tempo pace team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Miami Heat). Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and create more chances for scoring and assists, but the Mavericks grade out 2ndworst in in the NBA when playing on the road with a mere 8.1 offensive rebounds per game over the last 20 games. In comparison to last year's 10.5 mark, Luka Doncic's number of free throw attempts has fallen this year to 8.7 free throw attempts per game. Luka Doncic stands to suffer a drop-off in production in all stat categories as a result of being on the road in this contest.

Kyrie Irving Points Scored Props • Dallas

K. Irving
point guard PG • Dallas
Prop
23.5
Points Scored
Projection
23.8
Best Odds
Over
-125

Kyrie Irving has attempted 18.9 field goals per game on the road this year, ranking in the 97th percentile among all players in the league. Kyrie Irving has averaged 39.6 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 4.7 higher than he's averaged in all games this year. With respect to scoring, the Dallas Mavericks's excellent 120.5 points per game on the road comes in as the most in the league over the last 15 games. This year, the opposing team's starting SGs have averaged 6.3 3-point attempts per game (most in the league) against the Heat, designating this as a strong matchup. The Mavericks have played at the 4th-fastest pace in the league over the last 5 games.

Kyrie Irving

Prop: 23.5 Points Scored
Projection: 23.8
Prop:
23.5 Points Scored
Projection:
23.8

Kyrie Irving has attempted 18.9 field goals per game on the road this year, ranking in the 97th percentile among all players in the league. Kyrie Irving has averaged 39.6 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 4.7 higher than he's averaged in all games this year. With respect to scoring, the Dallas Mavericks's excellent 120.5 points per game on the road comes in as the most in the league over the last 15 games. This year, the opposing team's starting SGs have averaged 6.3 3-point attempts per game (most in the league) against the Heat, designating this as a strong matchup. The Mavericks have played at the 4th-fastest pace in the league over the last 5 games.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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