MIN 8.0 o221.5
BOS -8.0 u221.5
WAS 11.5 o243.0
IND -11.5 u243.0
LAC -2.0 o211.0
PHI 2.0 u211.0
DAL 3.0 o222.5
MIA -3.0 u222.5
TOR 12.0 o236.0
CLE -12.0 u236.0
BK 8.5 o221.5
SAC -8.5 u221.5
Dallas 9th WESTERN CONFERENCE9-7
Minnesota 10th WESTERN CONFERENCE8-7

Dallas @ Minnesota props

Target Center

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Luka Dončić Points Scored Props • Dallas

L. Dončić
point guard PG • Dallas
Prop
28.5
Points Scored
Projection
26.1
Best Odds
Under
-110
Prop
28.5 Points Scored
Projection
26.1
Best Odds
Under
-110
Projection Rating

The matchup vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves is a challenging one for field goals; opposing starting PGs have compiled the lowest FG% in the NBA this year (39.8%). The Dallas Mavericks will likely see a decline in plays in this game from facing the 4th-most sluggish pace-of-play offense in the league since the start of last season (the Minnesota Timberwolves). The Mavericks rank as the 10th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league since the start of last season (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists). The matchup against the Timberwolves may be a hard one for getting to the foul line; the other team's starting PGs have attempted just 3.3 foul shots per game over the last 15 games (5th-least in the NBA). Luka Doncic will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing without the home court advantage usually worsens stat production in all stat categories.

Luka Dončić

Prop: 28.5 Points Scored
Projection: 26.1
Prop:
28.5 Points Scored
Projection:
26.1

The matchup vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves is a challenging one for field goals; opposing starting PGs have compiled the lowest FG% in the NBA this year (39.8%). The Dallas Mavericks will likely see a decline in plays in this game from facing the 4th-most sluggish pace-of-play offense in the league since the start of last season (the Minnesota Timberwolves). The Mavericks rank as the 10th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league since the start of last season (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists). The matchup against the Timberwolves may be a hard one for getting to the foul line; the other team's starting PGs have attempted just 3.3 foul shots per game over the last 15 games (5th-least in the NBA). Luka Doncic will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing without the home court advantage usually worsens stat production in all stat categories.

P.J. Washington Points Scored Props • Dallas

P. Washington
power forward PF • Dallas
Prop
9.5
Points Scored
Projection
11
Best Odds
Over
-105
Prop
9.5 Points Scored
Projection
11
Best Odds
Over
-105
Projection Rating

P.J. Washington has attempted 5.8 three-point shots per game since the start of last season, placing him in the 86th percentile out of all players in the league. P.J. Washington has averaged 31.6 minutes per game since the start of last season, ranking among the most used players in the NBA: 81st percentile. In regard to shots from behind the three-point arc, the 4th-most aggressive offense in the NBA since the start of last season has been the Mavericks.

P.J. Washington

Prop: 9.5 Points Scored
Projection: 11
Prop:
9.5 Points Scored
Projection:
11

P.J. Washington has attempted 5.8 three-point shots per game since the start of last season, placing him in the 86th percentile out of all players in the league. P.J. Washington has averaged 31.6 minutes per game since the start of last season, ranking among the most used players in the NBA: 81st percentile. In regard to shots from behind the three-point arc, the 4th-most aggressive offense in the NBA since the start of last season has been the Mavericks.

Daniel Gafford Points Scored Props • Dallas

D. Gafford
power forward PF • Dallas
Prop
6.5
Points Scored
Projection
8.1
Best Odds
Over
-127
Prop
6.5 Points Scored
Projection
8.1
Best Odds
Over
-127
Projection Rating

Daniel Gafford has converted 69.3% of his shots from the field since the start of last season, putting him in the 99th percentile among all players in the NBA. In regard to shots from behind the three-point arc, the 4th-most aggressive offense in the NBA since the start of last season has been the Mavericks. The showdown with Rudy Gobert with respect to getting to the free-throw line slots into just the 86th percentile for difficulty with rival starting Cs attempting a colossal 3.7 free throws per game since the start of last season.

Daniel Gafford

Prop: 6.5 Points Scored
Projection: 8.1
Prop:
6.5 Points Scored
Projection:
8.1

Daniel Gafford has converted 69.3% of his shots from the field since the start of last season, putting him in the 99th percentile among all players in the NBA. In regard to shots from behind the three-point arc, the 4th-most aggressive offense in the NBA since the start of last season has been the Mavericks. The showdown with Rudy Gobert with respect to getting to the free-throw line slots into just the 86th percentile for difficulty with rival starting Cs attempting a colossal 3.7 free throws per game since the start of last season.

Dereck Lively Points Scored Props • Dallas

D. Lively
center C • Dallas
Prop
7.5
Points Scored
Projection
8.9
Best Odds
Over
-120
Prop
7.5 Points Scored
Projection
8.9
Best Odds
Over
-120
Projection Rating

Dereck Lively II has sunk 70.6% of his shots from the field while on the road since the start of last season, ranking him in the 99th percentile out of all players in the NBA. In regard to shots from behind the three-point arc, the 4th-most aggressive offense in the NBA since the start of last season has been the Mavericks.

Dereck Lively

Prop: 7.5 Points Scored
Projection: 8.9
Prop:
7.5 Points Scored
Projection:
8.9

Dereck Lively II has sunk 70.6% of his shots from the field while on the road since the start of last season, ranking him in the 99th percentile out of all players in the NBA. In regard to shots from behind the three-point arc, the 4th-most aggressive offense in the NBA since the start of last season has been the Mavericks.

Mike Conley Points Scored Props • Minnesota

M. Conley
point guard PG • Minnesota
Prop
8.5
Points Scored
Projection
9.5
Best Odds
Over
-110
Prop
8.5 Points Scored
Projection
9.5
Best Odds
Over
-110
Projection Rating

Among all players in the NBA, Mike Conley places in the 87th percentile for 3-point prowess at home with a terrific 42.4% rate since the start of last season. The Timberwolves rank as the 2nd-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league since the start of last season. This year when they have the home court advantage, the opposing team's starting PGs have totaled 2.4 3-pointers per game (9th-highest in the NBA) against the Mavericks, making this a strong matchup. Among all players in the NBA, Mike Conley ranks in the 81st percentile for free-throw efficiency with the home court advantage with a great 87.2% rate since the start of last season. Mike Conley should see an increase in performance for all stats due to holding the home court advantage in this game.

Mike Conley

Prop: 8.5 Points Scored
Projection: 9.5
Prop:
8.5 Points Scored
Projection:
9.5

Among all players in the NBA, Mike Conley places in the 87th percentile for 3-point prowess at home with a terrific 42.4% rate since the start of last season. The Timberwolves rank as the 2nd-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league since the start of last season. This year when they have the home court advantage, the opposing team's starting PGs have totaled 2.4 3-pointers per game (9th-highest in the NBA) against the Mavericks, making this a strong matchup. Among all players in the NBA, Mike Conley ranks in the 81st percentile for free-throw efficiency with the home court advantage with a great 87.2% rate since the start of last season. Mike Conley should see an increase in performance for all stats due to holding the home court advantage in this game.

Rudy Gobert Points Scored Props • Minnesota

R. Gobert
center C • Minnesota
Prop
11.5
Points Scored
Projection
12.5
Best Odds
Over
-110
Prop
11.5 Points Scored
Projection
12.5
Best Odds
Over
-110
Projection Rating

Among all players in the NBA, Rudy Gobert lands in the 97th percentile for scoring ability with a great 65.7% rate since the start of last season. Among all players in the league, Rudy Gobert lands in the 90th percentile for playing time, logging a monstrous 34.3 minutes per game on his home court since the start of last season. The Timberwolves rank as the 2nd-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league since the start of last season. The rate of three-pointers scored against Daniel Gafford has been very high (35.4%) when matched up against opposing starting Cs since the start of last season (79th percentile). The matchup with Daniel Gafford as it relates to drawing fouls rates in only the 76th percentile for difficulty with rival starting Cs attempting a whopping 3.6 free throws per game since the start of last season.

Rudy Gobert

Prop: 11.5 Points Scored
Projection: 12.5
Prop:
11.5 Points Scored
Projection:
12.5

Among all players in the NBA, Rudy Gobert lands in the 97th percentile for scoring ability with a great 65.7% rate since the start of last season. Among all players in the league, Rudy Gobert lands in the 90th percentile for playing time, logging a monstrous 34.3 minutes per game on his home court since the start of last season. The Timberwolves rank as the 2nd-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league since the start of last season. The rate of three-pointers scored against Daniel Gafford has been very high (35.4%) when matched up against opposing starting Cs since the start of last season (79th percentile). The matchup with Daniel Gafford as it relates to drawing fouls rates in only the 76th percentile for difficulty with rival starting Cs attempting a whopping 3.6 free throws per game since the start of last season.

Naz Reid Points Scored Props • Minnesota

N. Reid
center C • Minnesota
Prop
11.5
Points Scored
Projection
12.7
Best Odds
Over
-120
Prop
11.5 Points Scored
Projection
12.7
Best Odds
Over
-120
Projection Rating

Among all players in the NBA, Naz Reid rates in the 83rd percentile for 3-point shots sunk, compiling 2.0 per game since the start of last season. The Timberwolves rank as the 2nd-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league since the start of last season. Naz Reid ought to get a boost in production for all stats as a result of controlling the home court advantage in this contest.

Naz Reid

Prop: 11.5 Points Scored
Projection: 12.7
Prop:
11.5 Points Scored
Projection:
12.7

Among all players in the NBA, Naz Reid rates in the 83rd percentile for 3-point shots sunk, compiling 2.0 per game since the start of last season. The Timberwolves rank as the 2nd-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league since the start of last season. Naz Reid ought to get a boost in production for all stats as a result of controlling the home court advantage in this contest.

Kyrie Irving Points Scored Props • Dallas

K. Irving
point guard PG • Dallas
Prop
21.5
Points Scored
Projection
20.7
Best Odds
Under
-108
Prop
21.5 Points Scored
Projection
20.7
Best Odds
Under
-108
Projection Rating

The matchup vs. Minnesota is a difficult one for threes; when the Timberwolves are on their home court, opposing starting SGs have averaged the least shots from behind the three-point arc per game in the NBA this year (1.3). The Dallas Mavericks will likely see a decline in plays in this game from facing the 4th-most sluggish pace-of-play offense in the league since the start of last season (the Minnesota Timberwolves). The Mavericks rank as the 10th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league since the start of last season (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists). Kyrie Irving ought to see a decline in performance in all facets of the game on account of playing away from home in this matchup.

Kyrie Irving

Prop: 21.5 Points Scored
Projection: 20.7
Prop:
21.5 Points Scored
Projection:
20.7

The matchup vs. Minnesota is a difficult one for threes; when the Timberwolves are on their home court, opposing starting SGs have averaged the least shots from behind the three-point arc per game in the NBA this year (1.3). The Dallas Mavericks will likely see a decline in plays in this game from facing the 4th-most sluggish pace-of-play offense in the league since the start of last season (the Minnesota Timberwolves). The Mavericks rank as the 10th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league since the start of last season (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists). Kyrie Irving ought to see a decline in performance in all facets of the game on account of playing away from home in this matchup.

Jaden McDaniels Points Scored Props • Minnesota

J. McDaniels
power forward PF • Minnesota
Prop
9.5
Points Scored
Projection
10.1
Best Odds
Over
+100
Prop
9.5 Points Scored
Projection
10.1
Best Odds
Over
+100
Projection Rating

The Timberwolves rank as the 2nd-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league since the start of last season. Jaden McDaniels figures to get a boost in effectiveness across the board as a result of controlling the home court advantage in this game.

Jaden McDaniels

Prop: 9.5 Points Scored
Projection: 10.1
Prop:
9.5 Points Scored
Projection:
10.1

The Timberwolves rank as the 2nd-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league since the start of last season. Jaden McDaniels figures to get a boost in effectiveness across the board as a result of controlling the home court advantage in this game.

Julius Randle Points Scored Props • Minnesota

J. Randle
power forward PF • Minnesota
Prop
20.5
Points Scored
Projection
21.2
Best Odds
Over
-105
Prop
20.5 Points Scored
Projection
21.2
Best Odds
Over
-105
Projection Rating

Out of all players in the league, Julius Randle slots into the 95th percentile, tallying a monstrous 24.0 points per game since the start of last season. Julius Randle has attempted 5.2 threes per game since the start of last season, ranking in the 82nd percentile among all players in the league. Among all players in the league, Julius Randle places in the 95th percentile for playing time, totaling a massive 35.4 minutes per game since the start of last season. The Timberwolves rank as the 2nd-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league since the start of last season. This year, opposing starting PFs have averaged 16.0 field goal attempts per game (highest in the league) vs. the Dallas Mavericks, making this a favorable matchup.

Julius Randle

Prop: 20.5 Points Scored
Projection: 21.2
Prop:
20.5 Points Scored
Projection:
21.2

Out of all players in the league, Julius Randle slots into the 95th percentile, tallying a monstrous 24.0 points per game since the start of last season. Julius Randle has attempted 5.2 threes per game since the start of last season, ranking in the 82nd percentile among all players in the league. Among all players in the league, Julius Randle places in the 95th percentile for playing time, totaling a massive 35.4 minutes per game since the start of last season. The Timberwolves rank as the 2nd-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league since the start of last season. This year, opposing starting PFs have averaged 16.0 field goal attempts per game (highest in the league) vs. the Dallas Mavericks, making this a favorable matchup.

Klay Thompson Points Scored Props • Dallas

K. Thompson
shooting guard SG • Dallas
Prop
14.5
Points Scored
Projection
15.4
Best Odds
Over
-128
Prop
14.5 Points Scored
Projection
15.4
Best Odds
Over
-128
Projection Rating

Klay Thompson has attempted 9.0 3-point shots per game since the start of last season, ranking him in the 99th percentile out of all players in the league. Out of all players in the NBA, Klay Thompson comes in at the 76th percentile for playing time, tallying a massive 29.7 minutes per game since the start of last season. In regard to shots from behind the three-point arc, the 4th-most aggressive offense in the NBA since the start of last season has been the Mavericks. Among all players in the league, Klay Thompson measures in the 99th percentile for free-throw ability with an excellent 95.3% rate since the start of last season.

Klay Thompson

Prop: 14.5 Points Scored
Projection: 15.4
Prop:
14.5 Points Scored
Projection:
15.4

Klay Thompson has attempted 9.0 3-point shots per game since the start of last season, ranking him in the 99th percentile out of all players in the league. Out of all players in the NBA, Klay Thompson comes in at the 76th percentile for playing time, tallying a massive 29.7 minutes per game since the start of last season. In regard to shots from behind the three-point arc, the 4th-most aggressive offense in the NBA since the start of last season has been the Mavericks. Among all players in the league, Klay Thompson measures in the 99th percentile for free-throw ability with an excellent 95.3% rate since the start of last season.

Anthony Edwards Points Scored Props • Minnesota

A. Edwards
shooting guard SG • Minnesota
Prop
26.5
Points Scored
Projection
27.1
Best Odds
Over
-110
Prop
26.5 Points Scored
Projection
27.1
Best Odds
Over
-110
Projection Rating

Among all players in the NBA, Anthony Edwards slots into the 96th percentile for shots from the field while at home, putting up 18.4 per game since the start of last season. Among all players in the NBA, Anthony Edwards slots into the 92nd percentile for three-point shots made, totaling 2.6 per game since the start of last season. Out of all players in the NBA, Anthony Edwards places in the 95th percentile for playing time, putting up a whopping 35.6 minutes per game on his home court since the start of last season. The Timberwolves rank as the 2nd-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league since the start of last season. This year, the opposition's starting SGs have averaged 6.1 3-point attempts per game (5th-highest in the NBA) against the Mavericks, marking this as a favorable matchup.

Anthony Edwards

Prop: 26.5 Points Scored
Projection: 27.1
Prop:
26.5 Points Scored
Projection:
27.1

Among all players in the NBA, Anthony Edwards slots into the 96th percentile for shots from the field while at home, putting up 18.4 per game since the start of last season. Among all players in the NBA, Anthony Edwards slots into the 92nd percentile for three-point shots made, totaling 2.6 per game since the start of last season. Out of all players in the NBA, Anthony Edwards places in the 95th percentile for playing time, putting up a whopping 35.6 minutes per game on his home court since the start of last season. The Timberwolves rank as the 2nd-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league since the start of last season. This year, the opposition's starting SGs have averaged 6.1 3-point attempts per game (5th-highest in the NBA) against the Mavericks, marking this as a favorable matchup.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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