Final Nov 23
NY 106 -8.5 o234.0
UTA 121 8.5 u234.0
Final Nov 23
DET 100 9.0 o207.5
ORL 111 -9.0 u207.5
Final Nov 23
CHA 119 8.0 o224.0
MIL 125 -8.0 u224.0
Final Nov 23
MEM 142 -4.0 o244.0
CHI 131 4.0 u244.0
Final Nov 23
POR 104 11.5 o226.5
HOU 98 -11.5 u226.5
Final Nov 23
GS 94 -3.5 o229.0
SA 104 3.5 u229.0
Final Nov 23
DEN 127 4.0 o236.0
LAL 102 -4.0 u236.0
Sacramento 12th WESTERN CONFERENCE8-8
Miami 6th EASTERN CONFERENCE6-7

Sacramento @ Miami props

Kaseya Center

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

DeMar DeRozan Points Scored Props • Sacramento

D. DeRozan
shooting guard SG • Sacramento
Prop
23.5
Points Scored
Projection
20.3
Best Odds
Under
-135
Prop
23.5 Points Scored
Projection
20.3
Best Odds
Under
-135
Projection Rating

The Miami Heat have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace in the NBA this year, which should decrease possessions for the Kings. The Sacramento Kings have been the 9th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists). DeMar DeRozan will likely suffer a reduction in efficiency for all stats considering playing away from home in this matchup.

DeMar DeRozan

Prop: 23.5 Points Scored
Projection: 20.3
Prop:
23.5 Points Scored
Projection:
20.3

The Miami Heat have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace in the NBA this year, which should decrease possessions for the Kings. The Sacramento Kings have been the 9th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists). DeMar DeRozan will likely suffer a reduction in efficiency for all stats considering playing away from home in this matchup.

Tyler Herro Points Scored Props • Miami

T. Herro
shooting guard SG • Miami
Prop
20.5
Points Scored
Projection
18.6
Best Odds
Under
-120
Prop
20.5 Points Scored
Projection
18.6
Best Odds
Under
-120
Projection Rating

The matchup against Sacramento is a challenging one; when the Sacramento Kings are away from home, they have allowed the 3rd-least points per game in the NBA to opposing starting PGs this year (15.2). The Miami Heat have played at the 3rd-least up-tempo pace in the league this year. Offensive rebounds continue possession and lead to added chances for scoring and assists, but the Heat grade out 5thworst in in the NBA with only 9.4 offensive rebounds per game since the start of last season. The matchup vs. Sacramento is a challenging one for getting to the free-throw line; the opposition's starting PGs have attempted a lowly 3.3 foul shots per game this year when the Sacramento Kings are the visiting squad (8th-least in the NBA).

Tyler Herro

Prop: 20.5 Points Scored
Projection: 18.6
Prop:
20.5 Points Scored
Projection:
18.6

The matchup against Sacramento is a challenging one; when the Sacramento Kings are away from home, they have allowed the 3rd-least points per game in the NBA to opposing starting PGs this year (15.2). The Miami Heat have played at the 3rd-least up-tempo pace in the league this year. Offensive rebounds continue possession and lead to added chances for scoring and assists, but the Heat grade out 5thworst in in the NBA with only 9.4 offensive rebounds per game since the start of last season. The matchup vs. Sacramento is a challenging one for getting to the free-throw line; the opposition's starting PGs have attempted a lowly 3.3 foul shots per game this year when the Sacramento Kings are the visiting squad (8th-least in the NBA).

Kevin Huerter Points Scored Props • Sacramento

K. Huerter
shooting guard SG • Sacramento
Prop
8.5
Points Scored
Projection
9.8
Best Odds
Over
-110
Prop
8.5 Points Scored
Projection
9.8
Best Odds
Over
-110
Projection Rating

Kevin Huerter has attempted 5.4 shots from behind the three-point arc per game since the start of last season, ranking in the 83rd percentile among all players in the league. The Kings have been the 5th-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games. The matchup vs. the Heat is a positive one for shot attempts from downtown; opposing starting SGs have totaled the most 3-point attempts per game in the NBA this year (6.3). The Sacramento Kings have played at the 8th-fastest pace in the league over the last 5 games. This year when they are away from home, the opposing team's starting SGs have attempted 3.4 free throws per game (9th-most in the league) vs. the Miami Heat, succeeding in their efforts to get to the charity stripe.

Kevin Huerter

Prop: 8.5 Points Scored
Projection: 9.8
Prop:
8.5 Points Scored
Projection:
9.8

Kevin Huerter has attempted 5.4 shots from behind the three-point arc per game since the start of last season, ranking in the 83rd percentile among all players in the league. The Kings have been the 5th-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games. The matchup vs. the Heat is a positive one for shot attempts from downtown; opposing starting SGs have totaled the most 3-point attempts per game in the NBA this year (6.3). The Sacramento Kings have played at the 8th-fastest pace in the league over the last 5 games. This year when they are away from home, the opposing team's starting SGs have attempted 3.4 free throws per game (9th-most in the league) vs. the Miami Heat, succeeding in their efforts to get to the charity stripe.

Domantas Sabonis Points Scored Props • Sacramento

D. Sabonis
center C • Sacramento
Prop
16.5
Points Scored
Projection
18.1
Best Odds
Over
-110
Prop
16.5 Points Scored
Projection
18.1
Best Odds
Over
-110
Projection Rating

Domantas Sabonis has successfully made 59.7% of his shot attempts from the field since the start of last season, ranking in the 95th percentile among all players in the NBA. Among all players in the NBA, Domantas Sabonis slots into the 83rd percentile for three-point prowess with an exceptional 38.4% rate since the start of last season. Among all players in the NBA, Domantas Sabonis ranks in the 97th percentile for playing time, compiling an enormous 35.9 minutes per game since the start of last season. The Kings have been the 5th-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games. The rate of field goals made against Bam Adebayo has been very high (59.6%) when squaring off against opposing starting Cs since the start of last season (96th percentile).

Domantas Sabonis

Prop: 16.5 Points Scored
Projection: 18.1
Prop:
16.5 Points Scored
Projection:
18.1

Domantas Sabonis has successfully made 59.7% of his shot attempts from the field since the start of last season, ranking in the 95th percentile among all players in the NBA. Among all players in the NBA, Domantas Sabonis slots into the 83rd percentile for three-point prowess with an exceptional 38.4% rate since the start of last season. Among all players in the NBA, Domantas Sabonis ranks in the 97th percentile for playing time, compiling an enormous 35.9 minutes per game since the start of last season. The Kings have been the 5th-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games. The rate of field goals made against Bam Adebayo has been very high (59.6%) when squaring off against opposing starting Cs since the start of last season (96th percentile).

Jimmy Butler Points Scored Props • Miami

J. Butler
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
18.5
Points Scored
Projection
19.6
Best Odds
Over
-106
Prop
18.5 Points Scored
Projection
19.6
Best Odds
Over
-106
Projection Rating

Jimmy Butler has logged 20.6 points per game at home since the start of last season, placing him in the 87th percentile -- among the best in the NBA by this metric. Among all players in the NBA, Jimmy Butler registers in the 92nd percentile for 3-point ability with a stellar 40.7% rate since the start of last season. Jimmy Butler has been on the court for 33.9 minutes per game on his home court since the start of last season, placing him in the 88th percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA. The Miami Heat check in as the 10th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league at home since the start of last season. This year, the other team's starting SFs have tallied 2.3 threes per game (3rd-most in the league) vs. the Sacramento Kings, identifying this as a positive matchup.

Jimmy Butler

Prop: 18.5 Points Scored
Projection: 19.6
Prop:
18.5 Points Scored
Projection:
19.6

Jimmy Butler has logged 20.6 points per game at home since the start of last season, placing him in the 87th percentile -- among the best in the NBA by this metric. Among all players in the NBA, Jimmy Butler registers in the 92nd percentile for 3-point ability with a stellar 40.7% rate since the start of last season. Jimmy Butler has been on the court for 33.9 minutes per game on his home court since the start of last season, placing him in the 88th percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA. The Miami Heat check in as the 10th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league at home since the start of last season. This year, the other team's starting SFs have tallied 2.3 threes per game (3rd-most in the league) vs. the Sacramento Kings, identifying this as a positive matchup.

Keegan Murray Points Scored Props • Sacramento

K. Murray
small forward SF • Sacramento
Prop
14.5
Points Scored
Projection
14
Best Odds
Under
-101

Keegan Murray has averaged 3.0 personal fouls per game while on the road this year, putting him in the 86th percentile -- among the league's most-whistled. The Miami Heat have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace in the NBA this year, which should decrease possessions for the Kings. The Sacramento Kings have been the 9th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists). Over the last 10 games, the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted 1.8 foul shots per game (2nd-lowest in the league) against the Miami Heat, facing an uphill battle to draw fouls. Keegan Murray will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home stadium tends to reduce player performance across the board.

Keegan Murray

Prop: 14.5 Points Scored
Projection: 14
Prop:
14.5 Points Scored
Projection:
14

Keegan Murray has averaged 3.0 personal fouls per game while on the road this year, putting him in the 86th percentile -- among the league's most-whistled. The Miami Heat have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace in the NBA this year, which should decrease possessions for the Kings. The Sacramento Kings have been the 9th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists). Over the last 10 games, the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted 1.8 foul shots per game (2nd-lowest in the league) against the Miami Heat, facing an uphill battle to draw fouls. Keegan Murray will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home stadium tends to reduce player performance across the board.

Nikola Jović Points Scored Props • Miami

N. Jović
power forward PF • Miami
Prop
7.5
Points Scored
Projection
8.6
Best Odds
Over
-140
Prop
7.5 Points Scored
Projection
8.6
Best Odds
Over
-140
Projection Rating

The Miami Heat check in as the 10th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league at home since the start of last season. This year, opposing starting PFs have shot 52.6% on field goals (6th-highest in the NBA) vs. the Sacramento Kings, marking this as a good matchup. The Sacramento Kings have played at the 8th-speediest pace in the league over the last 5 games, which should raise possessions for the Miami Heat. Nikola Jovic should see a rise in productivity in all stat categories as a result of holding the home court advantage in this matchup.

Nikola Jović

Prop: 7.5 Points Scored
Projection: 8.6
Prop:
7.5 Points Scored
Projection:
8.6

The Miami Heat check in as the 10th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league at home since the start of last season. This year, opposing starting PFs have shot 52.6% on field goals (6th-highest in the NBA) vs. the Sacramento Kings, marking this as a good matchup. The Sacramento Kings have played at the 8th-speediest pace in the league over the last 5 games, which should raise possessions for the Miami Heat. Nikola Jovic should see a rise in productivity in all stat categories as a result of holding the home court advantage in this matchup.

De'Aaron Fox Points Scored Props • Sacramento

D. Fox
point guard PG • Sacramento
Prop
21.5
Points Scored
Projection
22.7
Best Odds
Over
-122
Prop
21.5 Points Scored
Projection
22.7
Best Odds
Over
-122
Projection Rating

Out of all players in the NBA, De'Aaron Fox lands in the 99th percentile for field goal attempts, averaging 20.9 per game since the start of last season. De'Aaron Fox has attempted 7.9 3-point shots per game since the start of last season, putting him in the 96th percentile out of all players in the league. Among all players in the league, De'Aaron Fox registers in the 97th percentile for playing time, tallying an enormous 36.2 minutes per game since the start of last season. The Kings have been the 5th-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games. The matchup against the Miami Heat is a positive one; they have given up the 4th-most points per game in the league to the opposition's starting PGs over the last 10 games (23.1).

De'Aaron Fox

Prop: 21.5 Points Scored
Projection: 22.7
Prop:
21.5 Points Scored
Projection:
22.7

Out of all players in the NBA, De'Aaron Fox lands in the 99th percentile for field goal attempts, averaging 20.9 per game since the start of last season. De'Aaron Fox has attempted 7.9 3-point shots per game since the start of last season, putting him in the 96th percentile out of all players in the league. Among all players in the league, De'Aaron Fox registers in the 97th percentile for playing time, tallying an enormous 36.2 minutes per game since the start of last season. The Kings have been the 5th-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games. The matchup against the Miami Heat is a positive one; they have given up the 4th-most points per game in the league to the opposition's starting PGs over the last 10 games (23.1).

Terry Rozier Points Scored Props • Miami

T. Rozier
point guard PG • Miami
Prop
16.5
Points Scored
Projection
17
Best Odds
Over
-102

Terry Rozier has successfully made 2.5 three-pointers per game since the start of last season, placing him in the 91st percentile among all players in the league. Terry Rozier has been on the court for 31.9 minutes per game with the home court advantage since the start of last season, putting him in the 78th percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the league. The Miami Heat check in as the 10th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league at home since the start of last season. The matchup against the Sacramento Kings is a positive one; they have given up the 2nd-most points per game in the league to the other team's starting SGs this year (18.1). The Sacramento Kings have played at the 8th-speediest pace in the league over the last 5 games, which should raise possessions for the Miami Heat.

Terry Rozier

Prop: 16.5 Points Scored
Projection: 17
Prop:
16.5 Points Scored
Projection:
17

Terry Rozier has successfully made 2.5 three-pointers per game since the start of last season, placing him in the 91st percentile among all players in the league. Terry Rozier has been on the court for 31.9 minutes per game with the home court advantage since the start of last season, putting him in the 78th percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the league. The Miami Heat check in as the 10th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league at home since the start of last season. The matchup against the Sacramento Kings is a positive one; they have given up the 2nd-most points per game in the league to the other team's starting SGs this year (18.1). The Sacramento Kings have played at the 8th-speediest pace in the league over the last 5 games, which should raise possessions for the Miami Heat.

Jaime Jaquez Points Scored Props • Miami

J. Jaquez
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
9.5
Points Scored
Projection
10.3
Best Odds
Over
-125
Prop
9.5 Points Scored
Projection
10.3
Best Odds
Over
-125
Projection Rating

The Miami Heat check in as the 10th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league at home since the start of last season. The Sacramento Kings have played at the 8th-speediest pace in the league over the last 5 games, which should raise possessions for the Miami Heat. Jaime Jaquez Jr. will likely see a rise in effectiveness across the board on account of owning the home court advantage in this matchup.

Jaime Jaquez

Prop: 9.5 Points Scored
Projection: 10.3
Prop:
9.5 Points Scored
Projection:
10.3

The Miami Heat check in as the 10th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league at home since the start of last season. The Sacramento Kings have played at the 8th-speediest pace in the league over the last 5 games, which should raise possessions for the Miami Heat. Jaime Jaquez Jr. will likely see a rise in effectiveness across the board on account of owning the home court advantage in this matchup.

Bam Adebayo Points Scored Props • Miami

B. Adebayo
center C • Miami
Prop
15.5
Points Scored
Projection
16
Best Odds
Over
-135

Bam Adebayo has made 7.1 buckets per game while playing at home since the start of last season, ranking in the 85th percentile out of all players in the league. Bam Adebayo has averaged 32.9 minutes per game at home since the start of last season, ranking him in the 84th percentile -- ranking among the most used players in the NBA. The Miami Heat check in as the 10th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league at home since the start of last season. The Sacramento Kings have played at the 8th-speediest pace in the league over the last 5 games, which should raise possessions for the Miami Heat. Among all players in the NBA, Bam Adebayo slots into the 91st percentile for getting to the free-throw line, logging a monstrous 4.8 free throws per game when playing at home since the start of last season.

Bam Adebayo

Prop: 15.5 Points Scored
Projection: 16
Prop:
15.5 Points Scored
Projection:
16

Bam Adebayo has made 7.1 buckets per game while playing at home since the start of last season, ranking in the 85th percentile out of all players in the league. Bam Adebayo has averaged 32.9 minutes per game at home since the start of last season, ranking him in the 84th percentile -- ranking among the most used players in the NBA. The Miami Heat check in as the 10th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league at home since the start of last season. The Sacramento Kings have played at the 8th-speediest pace in the league over the last 5 games, which should raise possessions for the Miami Heat. Among all players in the NBA, Bam Adebayo slots into the 91st percentile for getting to the free-throw line, logging a monstrous 4.8 free throws per game when playing at home since the start of last season.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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