Portland @ San Antonio picks

Among all players in the NBA, Chris Paul comes in at the 85th percentile for personal fouls, posting a whopping 2.4 fouls per game on his home court since the start of last season. When it comes to three-point shots, the Spurs's poor 31.6% rate of converted threes comes in as the 4th-weakest in the NBA over the last 5 games. This year, the opposing team's starting PGs have averaged 29.8% on three-pointers (3rd-worst in the league) vs. the Trail Blazers, identifying this as a challenging matchup. The 2nd-most sluggish pace-of-play home offense in the NBA this year has been the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs will likely suffer a drop-off in plays in this game from facing the 8th-slowest pace-of-play visiting offense in the league this year (the Trail Blazers).

Compared to last year's 2.2 rate, Keldon Johnson's personal fouls per game have regressed this year to 1.4. Keldon Johnson will have the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing at home tends to raise player performance in all stat categories.

Jerami Grant has attempted 8.1 3-point shots per game this season, quite a bit more than his 5.1 rate last season. Among all players in the NBA, Jerami Grant ranks in the 89th percentile for playing time, logging a whopping 33.5 minutes per game this year. The Trail Blazers have been the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists).

Stephon Castle has compiled 0.0 offensive rebounds per game while at home since the start of last season, putting him in the 16th percentile -- one of the worst in the NBA by this standard. The 2nd-most sluggish pace-of-play home offense in the NBA this year has been the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs will likely suffer a drop-off in plays in this game from facing the 8th-slowest pace-of-play visiting offense in the league this year (the Trail Blazers).